Why did Herschel a Walker hold up better than Oz or Masters?
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  Why did Herschel a Walker hold up better than Oz or Masters?
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Author Topic: Why did Herschel a Walker hold up better than Oz or Masters?  (Read 717 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: December 01, 2022, 09:16:54 PM »

Why did Herschel Walker generally hold up better than Dr. Oz or Blake Masters?
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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« Reply #1 on: December 01, 2022, 10:16:08 PM »

Why did Herschel Walker generally hold up better than Dr. Oz or Blake Masters?

PA=slightly bluer state, and Oz's negatives were higher
AZ=more swing voters
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #2 on: December 01, 2022, 10:30:28 PM »

Why did Herschel Walker generally hold up better than Dr. Oz or Blake Masters?

PA=slightly bluer state, and Oz's negatives were higher
AZ=more swing voters

Plus Rs were facing harder headwinds at the top of the ticket in both states, especially PA.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #3 on: December 01, 2022, 10:32:37 PM »
« Edited: December 01, 2022, 10:40:27 PM by Roll Roons »

I think Herschel's status as a football legend actually did earn him a lot of goodwill. A hypothetical candidate who had all of his baggage but without the football accomplishments wouldn't have made it out of primary even with a Trump endorsement.

This holds up in the general election. As obviously flawed as Herschel Walker is, he was still a football star in his small hometown and the state's flagship university. Naturally, someone like that will have much more goodwill than a creepy tech bro or a snake-oil peddler who ran for office in a state that he didn't even live in.
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jrk26
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« Reply #4 on: December 01, 2022, 10:36:25 PM »

Why did Herschel Walker generally hold up better than Dr. Oz or Blake Masters?

PA=slightly bluer state, and Oz's negatives were higher
AZ=more swing voters

Plus Rs were facing harder headwinds at the top of the ticket in both states, especially PA.

Right, another clear factor I should have included was Mastriano getting demolished in the GOV race, that definitely helped Fetterman's margin.
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #5 on: December 02, 2022, 12:47:20 AM »

Georgia is politically inelastic.
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Dani Rose
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« Reply #6 on: December 02, 2022, 02:08:50 AM »

Pennsylvania and Arizona are culturally wildly different from Georgia and still have a substantial presence of moderate swing voters and, in Pennsylvania's case, voters who were drawn to Trump's promises to the labor class but not so much Republican promises in general. Georgia is rapidly leaving for the GOP on account of urban growth displacing rural power, but its Republican base is still almost entirely peopled by archconservative, evangelical Deep South Christians who would sooner immolate themselves than vote for a Democrat.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #7 on: December 02, 2022, 02:10:14 AM »

Georgia is a more inelastic state that Arizona or Pennsylvania.
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Spectator
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« Reply #8 on: December 02, 2022, 08:52:54 AM »

I think Herschel's status as a football legend actually did earn him a lot of goodwill. A hypothetical candidate who had all of his baggage but without the football accomplishments wouldn't have made it out of primary even with a Trump endorsement.

This holds up in the general election. As obviously flawed as Herschel Walker is, he was still a football star in his small hometown and the state's flagship university. Naturally, someone like that will have much more goodwill than a creepy tech bro or a snake-oil peddler who ran for office in a state that he didn't even live in.

I actually think his status as a legend had minimal impact. That was all 40 years ago, and anyone under the age of 50 wouldn’t remember it. He seems to have gotten a small bump out of his home county of Johnson, only underperforming Kemp by 1%, but that’s about all I see.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: December 02, 2022, 09:22:12 AM »

I'm surprised more people aren't bringing up coattails. Seems pretty clear that he only did even as well as he did (while still losing to Warnock in votes) because of Kemp, Raffensberger, etc.
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #10 on: December 02, 2022, 10:09:39 AM »

The biggest factor is that Georgia Republicans are very much Southern socially conservative Republicans, while Pennsylvania and Arizona Republicans are more moderate.

While most Southern states aren't super competitive, Republicans generally did very well in the South in 2022 (look at the margins in many Southern states).  For example, Kay Ivey nearly carried Jefferson County (Birmingham), and Bill Lee nearly held Jason Martin's margin in Shelby County (Memphis) to single digits.
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forsythvoter
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« Reply #11 on: December 02, 2022, 10:41:03 AM »

I think the point around inelasticity is half of the answer. Virtually all Rs and Ds I know in GA (to be fair, I know far more Rs than I do Ds) vote the party line at a very high rate and the largest concentration of actual swing voters (which I define as voters that actually regularly vote for both parties) I know are typically younger white college educated voters in the metro ATL area that typically grew up in R households but are more receptive to the D brand than their parents. This isn't a large slice of the overall electorate (even though it feels that way in parts of the metro ATL area).

The other half is black turnout (26% of the electorate vs. 27% when Biden won in 2020 and closer to 30% when Warnock won his first runoff election) in the general was low. If black voters had been closer to 30% of the electorate (which btw is the actual black % of registered voters in GA), we likely would have seen Warnock win by 4-5% (in line with the PA / AZ elections), and some of the statewide Ds may have won or at least forced a runoff (e.g., AG, LG).
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