Will Georgia ever abolish runoffs?

[Tekken_Guy]

Will Georgia ever abolish runoffs?

[Spectator]

If Democrats consistently start doing better in runoffs than the generals this decade I could see it, yes.

[randomusername]

Warnock would have ended up winning outright though if the Republicans removed it. Gives more of a chance to Republican voters if you believe the Libertarian is playing spoiler.

[One Term Floridian]

Maybe when the Dems run the state

[Adam Griffin]

I could definitely see Republicans reversing their previous reversal of the Democratic reversal of runoff thresholds:

Fun Fact: Runoff requirements have been changed multiple times throughout Georgia history. Until 1993, the threshold for avoiding a runoff was 50% +1 vote. After Wyche Fowler lost his Senate seat to Paul Coverdell in a Senate runoff, the Democratic legislature changed the provision to 45% +1 vote, where it would remain until the GOP took the majority in the General Assembly. In 2005, the GOP majority reverted the runoff threshold to 50% +1 vote, where it has remained ever since.

Here's a good article for those who are interested in a brief history of runoff elections, why they exist, what they accomplished, etc. One point I had never really considered:

“Outside the South, you had a potential check if a party were to nominate somebody who was too extreme or just kind of a wacko: They would lose in the general election. But there was not that check in the South because there were literally no Republican candidates,” Bullock said.

Having a runoff, he said, allowed Democrats to consolidate their support behind a single candidate in a second round of voting.

I also didn't know that Georgia implemented IRV this year for military/overseas voters:

Under the new system, military and overseas voters are sent instant-runoff ballots for the general election. It allows them to rank their second- and third-choice candidates upfront, rather than having to vote again in a runoff. If no candidate receives more than 50% support in the general election, votes for the highest-ranked remaining candidates would then be tallied.

State Rep. Wes Cantrell, R-Woodstock, co-sponsored the instant runoff legislation that was folded into the elections overhaul. He thinks that if ranked voting is successful with overseas and military voters, it could be expanded to all Georgia voters, making runoffs moot.

[prag_prog]

Georgia residents must also have been getting fed up with runoffs. With Georgia becoming a swing state, it's very likely that we are gonna have more runoffs next decade unless there are any changes to rule. I feel like the 45% +1 vote makes the most sense. I wish they can change it to that.

[MABA 2020]

If they keep getting runoffs after every single election then yeah they might start to just get sick of it.

[Adam Griffin]

If they keep getting runoffs after every single election then yeah they might start to just get sick of it.

To be fair, runoffs have been a fairly common occurrence for many voters (i.e. higher-propensity ones) for a long time.

Runoffs have existed in some form or another for the past 105 years. The runoff rule also applies to all races (congressional, state legislative, countywide, local and municipal) - and of course applies in primaries all the same as generals - so chances are no matter where you live, there's going to be at least one runoff each election cycle (or in the case of those living in cities, which hold elections in odd-numbered years, possibly a runoff every single year).

It's pretty hilarious to think about a presidential election year under the pre-2021 system as an example. Here are the potential elections in which Georgians could vote in 2016 & 2020:

• March - Presidential primary
• May - Federal/state/local primary
• July - Federal/state/local primary runoff
• November - General election
• December - State/local general election runoff
• January - Federal general election runoff

...and that doesn't even include a potential special election held somewhere in between (though usually they would try to schedule it in conjunction with one of those six other elections).

[Skill and Chance]

If they keep getting runoffs after every single election then yeah they might start to just get sick of it.

They don't exactly have a lot of time to make that decision, though.  Remember, it's the GOP that's getting a second chance from the runoff this year.  Warnock would have already won. Whatever happens next week, IMO this makes it unlikely the GOP trifecta would push to change it immediately.

After next week, there shouldn't be any more statewide elections that could be impacted by the runoff in GA until 2026.  As things, it's quite likely the GOP will lose their trifecta in that election.  If the R won the first round for governor and the D won the runoff and they were really mad about it, I suppose they could convene a special session in December 2026 before the transfer of power.

IMO the most likely runoff modification would be the state switching to RCV whenever Dems take full control.
 

[YE]

When does full control happen in GA? How long will the GOP gerrymander hold?

[Skill and Chance]

When does full control happen in GA? How long will the GOP gerrymander hold?

Well, Dems gained more seats in the legislature this year even with the best top-of-ticket performance the GOP could hope for in this era from Kemp.  The lower house is now 101R/79D and the upper house is 33R/23D.  The Republican map in the upper house is generally considered stronger.  There is a very plausible path to a Dem majority in the lower house by the end of the decade.  There is also a plausible path to a tie in the upper house, which would be broken by the LG who would presumably be a Dem in such a political environment.  An outright majority in the upper house before 2032 redistricting would require a pretty epic wave and/or much stronger than anticipated Dem results in the north Atlanta suburbs.   

I think they will get it in whichever of 2026/2030 is a GOP president midterm.

[Adam Griffin]

After next week, there shouldn't be any more statewide elections that could be impacted by the runoff in GA until 2026.

Not to be pedantic, but there are 2 statewide Public Service Commission races that'll be on the ballot in 2024 - and we've already seen one PSC race go to a runoff before (in 2018 with PSC Seat 3).

[Skill and Chance]

After next week, there shouldn't be any more statewide elections that could be impacted by the runoff in GA until 2026.

Not to be pedantic, but there are 2 statewide Public Service Commission races that'll be on the ballot in 2024 - and we've already seen one PSC race go to a runoff before (in 2018 with PSC Seat 3).

Interesting.

What is your view on when Democrats could plausibly take the legislature?  Could it happen this decade, or would it need to be in 2032 after having a say in redistricting?

[Spectator]

When does full control happen in GA? How long will the GOP gerrymander hold?

Probably not until next decade at the earliest. Dems need to win the Governorship in 2030 to break it. They have an outside shot at the House later in the decade, but that would come after a gubernatorial win.

[Adam Griffin]

After next week, there shouldn't be any more statewide elections that could be impacted by the runoff in GA until 2026.

Not to be pedantic, but there are 2 statewide Public Service Commission races that'll be on the ballot in 2024 - and we've already seen one PSC race go to a runoff before (in 2018 with PSC Seat 3).

Interesting.

What is your view on when Democrats could plausibly take the legislature?  Could it happen this decade, or would it need to be in 2032 after having a say in redistricting?

Both chambers? January 2033 at the earliest, assuming Democrats actually manage to elect a Governor in 2030.

House could possibly flip in the latter half of the decade, but as it stands, there are only 83 Biden HDs + 4 HDs where Trump won by less than 5 points. There are multiple pathways through north metro HDs moving an additional 15+ points (minimum, given House Rs overperform Presidential GOP candidates), as well as a handful of districts around Macon, Warner Robins and Athens, but it's going to take either a good amount of time or a perfect storm scenario to line everything up in the next few years.

Senate is ironclad. Best Dems can hope for this decade is 29 R - 27 D.

[Skill and Chance]

After next week, there shouldn't be any more statewide elections that could be impacted by the runoff in GA until 2026.

Not to be pedantic, but there are 2 statewide Public Service Commission races that'll be on the ballot in 2024 - and we've already seen one PSC race go to a runoff before (in 2018 with PSC Seat 3).

Interesting.

What is your view on when Democrats could plausibly take the legislature?  Could it happen this decade, or would it need to be in 2032 after having a say in redistricting?

Both chambers? January 2033 at the earliest, assuming Democrats actually manage to elect a Governor in 2030.

House could possibly flip in the latter half of the decade, but as it stands, there are only 83 Biden HDs + 4 HDs where Trump won by less than 5 points. There are multiple pathways through north metro HDs moving an additional 15+ points (minimum, given House Rs overperform Presidential GOP candidates), as well as a handful of districts around Macon, Warner Robins and Athens, but it's going to take either a good amount of time or a perfect storm scenario to line everything up in the next few years.

Senate is ironclad. Best Dems can hope for this decade is 29 R - 27 D.

Wait, wouldn't taking the lower house be enough to block a 2030's gerrymander by itself even if they lose the governorship?

[Adam Griffin]

After next week, there shouldn't be any more statewide elections that could be impacted by the runoff in GA until 2026.

Not to be pedantic, but there are 2 statewide Public Service Commission races that'll be on the ballot in 2024 - and we've already seen one PSC race go to a runoff before (in 2018 with PSC Seat 3).

Interesting.

What is your view on when Democrats could plausibly take the legislature?  Could it happen this decade, or would it need to be in 2032 after having a say in redistricting?

Both chambers? January 2033 at the earliest, assuming Democrats actually manage to elect a Governor in 2030.

House could possibly flip in the latter half of the decade, but as it stands, there are only 83 Biden HDs + 4 HDs where Trump won by less than 5 points. There are multiple pathways through north metro HDs moving an additional 15+ points (minimum, given House Rs overperform Presidential GOP candidates), as well as a handful of districts around Macon, Warner Robins and Athens, but it's going to take either a good amount of time or a perfect storm scenario to line everything up in the next few years.

Senate is ironclad. Best Dems can hope for this decade is 29 R - 27 D.

Wait, wouldn't taking the lower house be enough to block a 2030's gerrymander by itself even if they lose the governorship?

In theory, yes. However, I expect it would be a very slim D majority, and there is something to be said about how certain Southern Democratic legislators (particularly those in the Black Caucus) have behaved in these situations over the past few decades. VRA protections fuel a good amount of this dynamic as cover, of course.

Multiple examples of Southern Black Ds allying with white Rs to ensure their 80% D seats don't become 70% D (even when it means more D legislative seats) and that they somehow might lose a GE in the worst-case scenario - or even worse, their district now has a few new people who might be more inclined to vote for a primary challenger - exist across time and space. Turns out, when you never have to campaign after winning your first primary, you get very sensitive about anything that might allude toward having to do so in the future!

A granular in-state example: both Savannah and Chatham County government remained under predominant white R control for like 20 extra years because the black delegations did not want any marginally-competitive districts for themselves even if it provided a pathway to majority control of the council/commission.

In a chamber of 180 members, it might only take 1 or 2 defections along these lines to crush it.

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ It's possible any dissidents could be persuaded just not to protest in such a fashion, thereby throwing the maps to the courts which would probably balance all relevant considerations. It's just a question of whether the GAGOP delegation could offer a better guaranteed deal in exchange for their cooperation.

[Frodo]

The more people are aware of the segregationist origins of Georgia's run-off system, the more likely it could happen:

https://twitter.com/NewsHour/status/1599056112162148357

[Skill and Chance]

^^^ It's possible any dissidents could be persuaded just not to protest in such a fashion, thereby throwing the maps to the courts which would probably balance all relevant considerations. It's just a question of whether the GAGOP delegation could offer a better guaranteed deal in exchange for their cooperation.

How about a deal to refer a VA style commission amendment to the voters? 

[°Leprechaun]

I support runoffs.
They allow voters to support third parties.
They are more democratic than the alternative.
They also don't necessarily hurt Democrats, Ossoff lost the first round but won the runoff.

[Adam Griffin]

The more people are aware of the segregationist origins of Georgia's run-off system, the more likely it could happen:

https://twitter.com/NewsHour/status/1599056112162148357

This actually leaves out some vital context. "Runoffs" (meaning another round of selection if no candidate receives a majority of the vote) have been a thing since 1917 in Georgia: it's just that in the 1960s, the General Assembly abolished runoffs for presidential elections in 1968 (which were a thing, but never needed; abolished in advance of Wallace's presidential bid) and gave the voters the power in a runoff in any other contest - as opposed to the still remaining "Mississippi System", where if no candidate garners a majority, the legislature elects the official.

(see: 1966 gubernatorial election, where Republican Bo Callaway won by 0.3 points but failed to hit 50, only for the General Assembly to install Lester Maddox).

[Skill and Chance]

The more people are aware of the segregationist origins of Georgia's run-off system, the more likely it could happen:

https://twitter.com/NewsHour/status/1599056112162148357

This actually leaves out some vital context. "Runoffs" (meaning another round of selection if no candidate receives a majority of the vote) have been a thing since 1917 in Georgia: it's just that in the 1960s, the General Assembly abolished runoffs for presidential elections in 1968 (which were a thing, but never needed; abolished in advance of Wallace's presidential bid) and gave the voters the power in a runoff in any other contest - as opposed to the still remaining "Mississippi System", where if no candidate garners a majority, the legislature elects the official.

(see: 1966 gubernatorial election, where Republican Bo Callaway won by 0.3 points but failed to hit 50, only for the General Assembly to install Lester Maddox).

Yes, and as a practical matter, the 2021 Senate runoff resulted in the preferred candidate of black voters winning a senate seat when the preferred candidate of white voters won a plurality in the first round.  There is nothing inherently racist in the present day about holding a runoff election.   

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Dems were screwed by it this year (though it probably won't matter in the end) while Republicans were screwed in 2020.

[Landslide Lyndon]

They should just replace it with instant runoff. Same result, less trouble.