AZ, because its D-trend seems slower and less reliable.
Why is that? Democrats just won most the statewide races in Arizona and maybe (?) one at best in Georgia against a seriously flawed Republican. I think Arizona is the tougher bill for any Republican, but I expect Trump to lose both again.
Georgia's Democratic trend is because of black voters, who are very inflexibly Democratic. Arizona has growing populations of Hispanics and white suburbanites, both of whom are perfectly capable of breaking Republican in competitive elections. (Even though Republicans had a decently strong ticket in GA and a quite weak one in AZ in 2022, note that the strongest Republican in AZ was stronger than the strongest Republican in GA).
AZ is a pretty elastic state, and my guess is actually still that it votes right of the US in 2024 (a Republican victory there wouldn't necessarily mean a Republican victory nationally).
AZ def feels like it has a higher possible ceiling for both sides. Right now as Dems have been gaining rapidly in AZ, you'd expect Dems to gain in AZ faster than GA which is almost purely powered by demographic changes. But there's less of a guarentee with AZ.
To be clear, I do think the demographic shifts in AZ generally favors Dems, but not in the way GAs does.
