Does Georgia or Arizona flip first?

[Agonized-Statism]

Been wondering about this one. Georgia was closer, but only by 0.07%.

[Ferguson97]

Arizona if Trump is the nominee. Georgia if DeSantis is the nominee.

[Sir Mohamed]

AZ, because its D-trend seems slower and less reliable.

[Spectator]

AZ, because its D-trend seems slower and less reliable.

Why is that? Democrats just won most the statewide races in Arizona and maybe (?) one at best in Georgia against a seriously flawed Republican. I think Arizona is the tougher bill for any Republican, but I expect Trump to lose both again.

[Skill and Chance]

AZ, because its D-trend seems slower and less reliable.

I thought this in 2020, but the 2022 results suggest otherwise. 

[seskoog]

Georgia, since it was to the right of Arizona by almost every metric this year.

[YE]

Georgia is much less elastic.

[Cyrusman]

AZ, because its D-trend seems slower and less reliable.

I thought this in 2020, but the 2022 results suggest otherwise. 

I mean every GOP candidate running for a statewide office was a big Trumpy type candidate which doesn't work in AZ. Ducey would have easily been reelected like Kemp was. Down ballot republicans did very well and AZ was pretty red with the generic vote

[Vosem]

AZ, because its D-trend seems slower and less reliable.

Why is that? Democrats just won most the statewide races in Arizona and maybe (?) one at best in Georgia against a seriously flawed Republican. I think Arizona is the tougher bill for any Republican, but I expect Trump to lose both again.

Georgia's Democratic trend is because of black voters, who are very inflexibly Democratic. Arizona has growing populations of Hispanics and white suburbanites, both of whom are perfectly capable of breaking Republican in competitive elections. (Even though Republicans had a decently strong ticket in GA and a quite weak one in AZ in 2022, note that the strongest Republican in AZ was stronger than the strongest Republican in GA).

AZ is a pretty elastic state, and my guess is actually still that it votes right of the US in 2024 (a Republican victory there wouldn't necessarily mean a Republican victory nationally).

[ProgressiveModerate]

AZ, because its D-trend seems slower and less reliable.

Why is that? Democrats just won most the statewide races in Arizona and maybe (?) one at best in Georgia against a seriously flawed Republican. I think Arizona is the tougher bill for any Republican, but I expect Trump to lose both again.

Georgia's Democratic trend is because of black voters, who are very inflexibly Democratic. Arizona has growing populations of Hispanics and white suburbanites, both of whom are perfectly capable of breaking Republican in competitive elections. (Even though Republicans had a decently strong ticket in GA and a quite weak one in AZ in 2022, note that the strongest Republican in AZ was stronger than the strongest Republican in GA).

AZ is a pretty elastic state, and my guess is actually still that it votes right of the US in 2024 (a Republican victory there wouldn't necessarily mean a Republican victory nationally).

AZ def feels like it has a higher possible ceiling for both sides. Right now as Dems have been gaining rapidly in AZ, you'd expect Dems to gain in AZ faster than GA which is almost purely powered by demographic changes. But there's less of a guarentee with AZ.

To be clear, I do think the demographic shifts in AZ generally favors Dems, but not in the way GAs does.

[Spectator]

AZ, because its D-trend seems slower and less reliable.

Why is that? Democrats just won most the statewide races in Arizona and maybe (?) one at best in Georgia against a seriously flawed Republican. I think Arizona is the tougher bill for any Republican, but I expect Trump to lose both again.

Georgia's Democratic trend is because of black voters, who are very inflexibly Democratic. Arizona has growing populations of Hispanics and white suburbanites, both of whom are perfectly capable of breaking Republican in competitive elections. (Even though Republicans had a decently strong ticket in GA and a quite weak one in AZ in 2022, note that the strongest Republican in AZ was stronger than the strongest Republican in GA).

AZ is a pretty elastic state, and my guess is actually still that it votes right of the US in 2024 (a Republican victory there wouldn't necessarily mean a Republican victory nationally).

As Adam Griffin has pointed out many times here, it’s generally white transplants or moderates in the suburbs flipping that got Biden over the line. Black migration to the south suburbs plays a part too, but that’s a trade off with the black depopulation in the rural areas.

[S019]

Arizona

[MargieCat]

I think Arizona will vote to the left of Georgia in 2024.

I might have said the opposite pre-November 8th.

But it's very easy to vote in Arizona, with most voters on the PEVL. Ducey did not pass any massive voter suppression laws, except starting to purge non-active voters from the PEVL starting in 2026.

With Katie Hobbs taking office and I believe only one-seat GOP majorities in both chambers, it doesn't seem likely any voter suppression laws can pass.

I fully expect Kemp and the state legislature to find even more ways to make it harder to vote in Georgia, next legislative session.

[DS0816]

The Democrats, after rigging their 2016 and 2020 presidential primaries, and others in between, should really not be going on about voter suppression.

In the meantime…Arizona and Georgia vote alike. They have realigned, beginning in 2020, with the Democrats. I anticipate the next Republican pickup of the presidency will see these two states not carry as they remain in the column for the Democrats.

[Kabam]

It's Arizona. Don't be fooled by 2022. The Republican candidates could not have been worse suited to win Arizona.

[OneJ]

It's hard to say just looking at these results. This was a midterm and results in midterms don't always translate to the upcoming presidential year. AZ likely turned out the way it did due to GOP's slate. In GA's case, probably to rebuke Trump/relatively lower turnout from Democrats.

At the end of the day, both states have been trending D overall recently albeit for different reasons and it likely depends on who the Republicans nominate to get a better picture. But if I have to choose it'll be Arizona.

*On a side note, I'm more interested in seeing what'll happen in North Carolina.

[xavier110]

It's Arizona. Don't be fooled by 2022. The Republican candidates could not have been worse suited to win Arizona.

A critical if small voting bloc has solidified toward Ds here, though. They are McCain people who have been all but cast aside by the Republican Party and have voted D in 2018, 2020, 2022. It’s not like 2022 is a one-off phenomenon to be “fooled by.” In fact, it’s instructive that these folks went from voting D for an office or two to voting for them for almost every office…

Barring something exceptional, I don’t know what would bring them back into the fold. Like sure they voted for Kimberly Yee, but they’re not voting for Donald Trump or Ron de Santis doing Trump cosplay.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It's Arizona. Don't be fooled by 2022. The Republican candidates could not have been worse suited to win Arizona.

A critical if small voting bloc has solidified toward Ds here, though. They are McCain people who have been all but cast aside by the Republican Party and have voted D in 2018, 2020, 2022. It’s not like 2022 is a one-off phenomenon to be “fooled by.” In fact, it’s instructive that these folks went from voting D for an office or two to voting for them for almost every office…

Barring something exceptional, I don’t know what would bring them back into the fold. Like sure they voted for Kimberly Yee, but they’re not voting for Donald Trump or Ron de Santis doing Trump cosplay.

Republicans don't neccesarily need all their votes back. Trump only lost the state by around 10k votes. I don't think he could win any of them back, but DeSantis certainly could win enough for a win. Still though, enough of those people have migrated to Dem side that days of R+8 or 9 AZ as we saw in 2008 and 2012 is gone. I don't think Trump can win Arizona again but I imagine it shouldn't be too difficult for someone like DeSantis to win it by about 2 points.

As for the main question though, I think Georgia is more likely to go R since both Trump and DeSantis could win it, while only DeSantis can win Arizona.

[Kabam]

It's Arizona. Don't be fooled by 2022. The Republican candidates could not have been worse suited to win Arizona.

A critical if small voting bloc has solidified toward Ds here, though. They are McCain people who have been all but cast aside by the Republican Party and have voted D in 2018, 2020, 2022. It’s not like 2022 is a one-off phenomenon to be “fooled by.” In fact, it’s instructive that these folks went from voting D for an office or two to voting for them for almost every office…

Barring something exceptional, I don’t know what would bring them back into the fold. Like sure they voted for Kimberly Yee, but they’re not voting for Donald Trump or Ron de Santis doing Trump cosplay.

That's mostly true.
However, Kari Lake did pretty much everything this year to push those voters away, even telling them to get the  out. And Lake only lost barely. And even with the awful tops of the ticket, Lake and Masters, being so awful, Lee won comfortable with 11% and even Horne beat incumbent Hoffman.
This implies to me that the Democratic coalition in Arizona is very vulnerable. A Republican, who does not almost everything in his power to alienate the Arizonan swing voters, might be enough to win. On the other hand, I concede that Republicans will probably just do that.

Georgia's Dem coalition looks much more stable. Yes, they voted for their statewide officials by a rather big margin (though smaller than Yee's), but they seemed to be much more appealing to moderates because of the whole Trump drama. And yet, Warnock held on. We will have to wait for the runoff, but I think we have a pattern in 2022 that the top of the tickets, mostly governors, had a huge impact on the other results, so I'd expect Warnock to win rather comfortably.

I just think there is a higher floor for Democrats in Georgia and the demographic changes are probably still more favorable than in Arizona. Plus, if Republicans manage to get a ticket that is not absolutely awful like Trump-Lake in 2024, they have much more persuadable voters in Arizona. After all, even Lake only lost by 0.6. So they don't need someone like Kimberly Yee, just someone that does scare the final 0.x percent they need a bit less. DeSantis might just do that. If they nominate Trump again and he continues his behavior, the swing voters, who helped Dems to beat Reps in 2020 and 2022, don't look likely to move back to Republicans in Georgia either and Georgia probably votes to the left of Arizona due to demographic changes.

I hope this makes sense. And if it doesn't, I play the I am not even American card.