It's Arizona. Don't be fooled by 2022. The Republican candidates could not have been worse suited to win Arizona.
A critical if small voting bloc has solidified toward Ds here, though. They are McCain people who have been all but cast aside by the Republican Party and have voted D in 2018, 2020, 2022. It’s not like 2022 is a one-off phenomenon to be “fooled by.” In fact, it’s instructive that these folks went from voting D for an office or two to voting for them for almost every office…
Barring something exceptional, I don’t know what would bring them back into the fold. Like sure they voted for Kimberly Yee, but they’re not voting for Donald Trump or Ron de Santis doing Trump cosplay.
Republicans don't neccesarily need all their votes back. Trump only lost the state by around 10k votes. I don't think he could win any of them back, but DeSantis certainly could win enough for a win. Still though, enough of those people have migrated to Dem side that days of R+8 or 9 AZ as we saw in 2008 and 2012 is gone. I don't think Trump can win Arizona again but I imagine it shouldn't be too difficult for someone like DeSantis to win it by about 2 points.
As for the main question though, I think Georgia is more likely to go R since both Trump and DeSantis could win it, while only DeSantis can win Arizona.
