How would 2020's defeated Democratic incumbents have done in 2022?

[Pericles]

As a thought experiment to see what impact the loss of seats in 2020 had for the outcome this year, let's say go through the defeated incumbents from 2020 and see how they would have done if they were running as incumbents this year.

TJ Cox, California 21/22: Valadao only narrowly won, and used his incmbency to define himself as a moderate this term. Cox was a weak incunbent though while Salas was a strong challenger, and Duarte's win suggests Republicans did not need incumbency to do well in this area. Tossup if Valadao ran for a third time, otherwise Lean Democratic.

Gil Cisneros, California 39/40: Redistricting shifted this district a lot to the right, and Kim won by a landslide, Cisneros wasn't that strong either and just got carried by the 2018 wave. Likely Republican.

Harley Rouda, California 48/45: This district got shifted to the left from 2020 and Steel won despite it, her challenger also seems to have been weak. Tossup.

Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, Florida 26/28: The Florida wave was absolutely brutal in this district, and it was shifted to the right in redistricting too. Safe Republican.

Donna Shalala, Florida 27: Same as 26/28. Safe Republican.

Abby Finkenauer, Iowa 1: This district stayed pretty similar, Axne lost though in a more favorable district and Finkenauer didn't outperform Biden in 2020 so a narrow loss looks most plausible. Lean Republican.

Collin Peterson, Minnesota 7: He lost by so much in 2020 that this is not a realistic hypothetical, and outrunning Trump +33% partisanship would just keep getting harder (and isn't comparable to Cartwright overcoming a Trump +3% margin), Likely Republican.

Xochitl Torres Small, New Mexico 2: A Democratic pickup in 2022 anyway so Safe Democratic outcome.

Max Rose, New York 11: He ran again and lost by 24% in the New York wave, Safe Republican.

Anthony Brindisi, New York 22/24: Tenney won by 32% this year, the New York wave and partisanship would be impossible to overcome, Safe Republican.

Kendra Horn, Oklahoma 5: Oddly it turn out she would have won her old district, but she can't outrun Biden by 19 points in her new district, Safe Republican.

Joe Cunningham, South Carolina 1: Mace won by 14 points and it's a Trump +9% district (a slight rightward shift from 2020), that partisanship would be hard to outrun and is unlikely to be doable this year, though maybe in a different environment. Likely Republican.

Ben McAdams, Utah 4: Owens won by 28%, and it's a Trump +25% district, maybe McMullin came close-ish here but the gerrymander would have flipped this seat too. Safe Republican.

If Iowa 2nd went the other way, I think that would have flipped too. Christy Smith would have won as an incumbent if Garcia didn't run again, but if he did he won by enough that him regaining the seat would be most likely. Texas 24 was very close in 2020 but also would have been gerrymandered if Democrats gained it. There were a few semi-close Republican holds that could have gone differently if Democrats won them in 2020-Schweikert and Bacon's seats for example.

Overall, it looks like most of these incumbents would have lost anyway, and been gerrymandered out, and Republicans would have just won an even narrower House majority. Perhaps if Democrats held the right swing seats and gained the right ones rather than gains that would just be reversed like in Texas or Indiana, they could have scraped together a majority though or at least made it dependent on a race that is now being recounted.

[Mr.Phips]

Brindisi almost certainly would have run in the new NY-22 and almost certainly would have overperformed Canole enough in Oneida county to win.

[Tekken_Guy]

Torres Small and Brindisi win, Dems may be able to salvage CA-45 and CA-22, everyone else loses.

Cisneros and Rouda honestly depends on which of the OC seats they choose to run in, and quite possibly that changes where Porter would have ran. Whichever Dem ran in the 40th was going to lose but 45 and 47 were very much winnable with any of them.

Also if Valenzuela wins she probably just moves into the 30th after EBJ retires. Christina Hale would have been forced into a primary with Carson. Gina Ortiz Jones might have just run in the seat Casar has now. Kara Eastman would hold on.

On the other hand if Kean had won in 2020 it’s easy to see Dems on the redistricting commission fully concede a Trump seat, making it harder to win back later this decade. Since Nunn won this year Young would have too, but Freitas, Jensen, and Kistner probably lose and Oberweis is a goner. De La Cruz and Van Orden both win re-election. Tiffany Shedd easily wins.

Scheller and Bognet I think would have been able to hold on as incumbents but I don’t think Parnell could have survived. Esshaki would have just taken the 10th instead of James (and allowing Levin to have the 11th to himself). Junge honestly could have gone either way if he ran in the new 7th, and I don’t think Kildee loses. Esther Joy King probably loses.

McCormick and Hunt probably get drawn the seats they currently have but keep their 7s instead of getting new numbers.