Ik especially after his landslide re-election in 2022, a lot of people have been pointing to DeSantis as a potential R nominee who would come with a lot go Trump's strengths but without his baggage. However, I'm skeptical.
While it is true that there are def "never-Trumpers" out there who would vote for DeSantis but not Trump in a GE, this is a pretty small group unless DeSantis makes a pretty proactive effort to sufficiently distance himself from Trump which I don't think will happen.
Furthermore, you have a large chunk of Trump supporters that just wouldn't show up to vote for DeSantis in a GE, especially if you have a really contentious and negative primary. There's a good chance Trump claims DeSantis stole the primary if he wins, and he'll be salty until election day and tell his supporters not to show up. Most DeSantis voters seem to be supporting him through the lens of being "electable" or "time to move on", which indicates they are more team players who will show up and vote R pretty much no matter what.
Finally, I think while DeSantis may be relatively young and have a cute family, he is relatively uncharismatic. Just look at the recent 2022 Florida Gov debate; he was honestly kind of awkward, especially when it wasn't his turn to speak and trying to do "comebacks" against Christ. Obviously, this is a skill that can be improved, but I don't understand where his charisma comes from.
It's also worth noting that locking down FL isn't really a benefit to Rs in the way it was a decade ago. Florida is a *must win* for Rs; they have virtually no path to victory without it at the Pres level.
Historically, Dems have been seen as the more factioned party, but I think this cycle, the GOP is really going to have to find a way to both great Trump supporters to show up, and to win over "moderates/independents".
Tell me how likely would Trump win AZ and GA? And without these two, what's the chance that he wins presidency?
DeSantis is obviously much more likely to win these two Than Trump. Just look at how Kemp and Yee did. These two states hate Trump, but are ok win non-crazy Republicans like Kemp and Yee. And with these two states at hand, DeSantis only need to win either WI or NV+NE2, which is completely within reach.
