Unpopular take; Trump is still a stronger R nominee than DeSantis

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ik especially after his landslide re-election in 2022, a lot of people have been pointing to DeSantis as a potential R nominee who would come with a lot go Trump's strengths but without his baggage. However, I'm skeptical.

While it is true that there are def "never-Trumpers" out there who would vote for DeSantis but not Trump in a GE, this is a pretty small group unless DeSantis makes a pretty proactive effort to sufficiently distance himself from Trump which I don't think will happen.

Furthermore, you have a large chunk of Trump supporters that just wouldn't show up to vote for DeSantis in a GE, especially if you have a really contentious and negative primary. There's a good chance Trump claims DeSantis stole the primary if he wins, and he'll be salty until election day and tell his supporters not to show up. Most DeSantis voters seem to be supporting him through the lens of being "electable" or "time to move on", which indicates they are more team players who will show up and vote R pretty much no matter what.

Finally, I think while DeSantis may be relatively young and have a cute family, he is relatively uncharismatic. Just look at the recent 2022 Florida Gov debate; he was honestly kind of awkward, especially when it wasn't his turn to speak and trying to do "comebacks" against Christ. Obviously, this is a skill that can be improved, but I don't understand where his charisma comes from.

It's also worth noting that locking down FL isn't really a benefit to Rs in the way it was a decade ago. Florida is a *must win* for Rs; they have virtually no path to victory without it at the Pres level.

Historically, Dems have been seen as the more factioned party, but I think this cycle, the GOP is really going to have to find a way to both great Trump supporters to show up, and to win over "moderates/independents".

[Enduro]

These are valid points, but I don't think you've fully considered that Trump is seen as treasonous by most independent voters in the aftermath of Jan 6. If that never happened, I'd say Trump would have a great chance at winning a rematch, but it did, and I don't think anyone has the skill to shake off that perception.

[ProgressiveModerate]

These are valid points, but I don't think you've fully considered that Trump is seen as treasonous by most independent voters in the aftermath of Jan 6. If that never happened, I'd say Trump would have a great chance at winning a rematch, but it did, and I don't think anyone has the skill to shake off that perception.

Yeah I agree that Trump has a lot of baggage, but I think that has turned many off to anyone in the R party that's remotely associated with him. Ig it's simillar to how in 2020, Rs were very successful at tying mainstream and moderate Ds to many on the far left staying focused on the BLM riots and stuff.

And once he's put under the national spotlight, DeSantis has to make where he stands clear. It's not like a more local race where someone like Fritzpatrick or Bacon can slip by without having to deal with a lot of these tough questions.

[MT Treasurer]

These are valid points

Not really, the OP is just passing off his unsubstantiated opinions as facts, like he did when he was adamant that Trump had "hit the Republican ceiling in Florida in 2020" and that there was no way DeSantis was going to win in a landslide in 2022.

Case in point:

1)

While it is true that there are def "never-Trumpers" out there who would vote for DeSantis but not Trump in a GE, this is a pretty small group

(citation needed)

2)

Furthermore, you have a large chunk of Trump supporters that just wouldn't show up to vote for DeSantis in a GE

(citation needed)

3)

Finally, I think while DeSantis may be relatively young and have a cute family, he is relatively uncharismatic.

He provides no evidence for #1 and #2. More importantly, however, all of his (evidence-free) 'arguments' leave the actual argument by most outside observers (not just on the right) as to why DeSantis would be more 'electable' than Trump (not that he’d be a shoo-in or anything, he wouldn’t!) unaddressed:

Ik especially after his landslide re-election in 2022, a lot of people have been pointing to DeSantis as a potential R nominee who would come with a lot go Trump's strengths but without his baggage. However, I'm skeptical.

In spite of its length, this is not a very compelling post at all.

I personally prefer to work with actual data points (e.g. election results which show that Trump has cost the party virtually every competitive national/federal race since 2016, polling data on Trump's abysmal favorability ratings, etc.) rather than his supposed "charisma" over DeSantis (suffice it to say that I..... am not the only one who would disagree), but that’s just me.

[ProgressiveModerate]

These are valid points

Not really, the OP is just passing off his unsubstantiated opinions as facts, like he did when he was adamant that Trump had "hit the Republican ceiling in Florida in 2020" and that there was no way DeSantis was going to win in a landslide in 2022.

Case in point:

1)

While it is true that there are def "never-Trumpers" out there who would vote for DeSantis but not Trump in a GE, this is a pretty small group

(citation needed)

2)

Furthermore, you have a large chunk of Trump supporters that just wouldn't show up to vote for DeSantis in a GE

(citation needed)

3)

Finally, I think while DeSantis may be relatively young and have a cute family, he is relatively uncharismatic.

He provides no evidence for #1 and #2. More importantly, however, all of his (evidence-free) 'arguments' leave the actual argument by most outside observers (not just on the right) as to why DeSantis would be more 'electable' than Trump (not that he’d be a shoo-in or anything, he wouldn’t!) unaddressed:

Ik especially after his landslide re-election in 2022, a lot of people have been pointing to DeSantis as a potential R nominee who would come with a lot go Trump's strengths but without his baggage. However, I'm skeptical.

In spite of its length, this is not a very compelling post at all.

I personally prefer to work with actual data points (e.g. election results which show that Trump has cost the party virtually every competitive national/federal race since 2016, polling data on Trump's abysmal favorability ratings, etc.) rather than his supposed "charisma" over DeSantis (suffice it to say that I..... am not the only one who would disagree), but that’s just me.

At the end of the day, these are all subjective things and I am going to have my own biases, everyone on this forum does. I feel like there should be places for talking about raw data but also about what we may think/percieve. I don't know exactly where I'm supposed to find like literal evidence to cite these lol.

I do concede though, I was wrong about Trump being close to the R ceiling in Florida, though I was correct about a lot of DeSantis's gains just coming from favorable turnout dynamics.

One of the things I dislike about this forum (and I'm often guilty of this too), is people acting very much like they're right even when there isn't any evidence to support nor not-support their conjecture. This is a forum for discussion of future possibilities, not rlly debating.

[MargieCat]

I was thinking the same thing earlier today.

On one hand, he could be considered more electable and win the independent and moderate voters that did not like Trump, plus hardcore Trump supporters, as well as the loyal high-propensity republicans. In this scenario, he could feasibly defeat Biden.

On the other hand, he could piss off a lot of Trump's avid supporters, to where they don't vote.  His brash personality and rude rhetoric could also repel the independent and moderate anti-Trump voters who went for Biden. The more loyal republicans will tow the party line and vote for him, just as they would for Trump or anyone else. In this scenario, DeSantis gets defeated badly as Biden sails to re-election with a comfortable margin.

The media seems to be going with the first narrative. But I wouldn't be surprised if the second scenario plays out and DeSantis gets trounced in a way that makes Trump's 2020 performance look like a success.

[2016]

Question to ProgressiveModerate,
Tell me how Trump can win a GE with a 39 % Favorable Rating with over 60 % viewing him Unfavorably. And that's nationally. In the Battleground States it is even worse for Trump.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Every Biden-DeSantis voter is more valuable than a Trump voter who sits out, because the former not only nets DeSantis a vote but also costs Biden one.

[Agafin]

There is one point which keeps being thrown out by a lot of people despite being thoroughly discredited during this past election. And that is the argument that Trump attacking a candidate and telling his voters (directly or indirectly) to vote against said candidate will negatively affect them in a general election. It will not, unless they previously based their entire campaign on being a trumpster. People have agency in who they vote for (obviously things are different in primaries).

Had Trump started attacking people like Lake, Mastriano or Walker, it would've buried them because they are nothing without him (though also hurting his credibility if those attacks were unprompted). But for someone like say, Lombardo or Youngkin who actually ran on issues dear to their states, it would've meant nothing. Hell, I'd say Trump attacking Kemp was in hindsight the biggest gift to his campaign once the primary was over. It allowed him to get a lot of anti-Trump moderates and independents while retaining pretty much all of the base because they'd still rather have him than Abrams. I mean, think about it, what possible explanation could there be for Georgia governor being almost exactly the same as 2014 despite 8 years of blue shift in the state and a much less favorable national performance (for Rs)?

So yeah, I believe that, where Desantis to actually win the nomination, then the only way for Trump to actually negatively affect him would be running as a third party in a bunch of key states. But you can bet that in that scenario, the republican party would do everything to destroy Trump behind scenes (including blackmail since they are the only thing preventing democrats from sending his ass to prison and Trump knows it).

Trump could spend the entirety of 2024 attacking nominee Desantis and not only would it not hurt him, it might actually help him. Anti-Trump republicans might not be that numerous but they could be the difference between winning and losing Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona in 2024 .

[BlueSwan]

Ron DeSantis has very lttle charisma, but he is really really REALLY good at the one thing that republican voters care more about than anything else, which is owning the libs. That's why "Don't Say Gay", banning CRT and shipping off refugees to Martha's Vineyard were so genius from a purely strategic standpoint. Maybe he doesn't win over many independents with that sh*t, but he really pisses off liberals and GOP voters respond extremely well to that. He also provokes liberals into taking positions that are too woke for the general public, so it isn't really a terrible general election strategy either. Far too many americans will rather vote for a politician who is too conservative than for one who is too woke.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Every Biden-DeSantis voter is more valuable than a Trump voter who sits out, because the former not only nets DeSantis a vote but also costs Biden one.

Thank you. "Increasing turnout" is overrated as a campaign strategy and it is quite arrogant tbh

[President Johnson]

Valid points.

As to the general question on electability, I think the big question mark with regard to DeSantis is whether he can appeal to enough voters in the Rust Belt trio. Flipping at least one of them - better two - is very much essential for a path to 270. The results of 2022 show that it's more difficult for other Republicans to win here. Ironically, I tend to believe DeSantis would be better suited in a popular vote election, while the current Electoral College is better for Trump to advance.

Of course, this post may age like milk, it's just that I feel this way at this moment in time.

[2016]

Former President Donald Trump Favorables/Unfavorables in Battleground States (Courtesy: 2022 Exit Polls)

OHIO = Trump 44 / 53

NORTH CAROLINA = 43 / 53

Just two States as an example that Trump can't win.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Trump listened to Pence after 2020 and just conceded the election and then plotted a comeback , then you may have a point but the fact is he did not do that and in fact when full lunatic so things are fundamentally different than they would have been .

Btw it wouldn’t have even been hard to shake of the “loser” tag either as he could have easily pointed out how close he was to winning despite a once in a century pandemic or hell even blamed the loss on the hunter Biden story being censored .

Trump did not do any of these things and did the opposite so this is completely untrue now

[President Johnson]

Former President Donald Trump Favorables/Unfavorables in Battleground States (Courtesy: 2022 Exit Polls)

OHIO = Trump 44 / 53

NORTH CAROLINA = 43 / 53

Just two States as an example that Trump can't win.

Trump won the 2016 election with something like 36% favorabilities. He's certainly going to win Ohio again in 2024 and would be highly competitive in North Carolina as well. Favorabilities don't mean all too much.

[TPIG]

For me, the charisma and never-Trumper factors you mention aren't really relevant.  DeSantis would be running against Joe Biden - so I think the charisma element can be cancelled out. Also, a fierce primary between Trump and DeSantis would certainly be enough to distance Desantis from Trump and earn him the support of never-Trumpers. The only factor that matters is whether or not Trump claims fraud and refuses to endorse DeSantis, if the primary doesn't go his way. It's obviously incredibly likely that Trump would claim fraud, and I suppose, in that way, Trump may be stronger, simply because DeSantis wouldn't do the same, if the situation was reversed.

Taken in a vacuum though, DeSantis is certainly more electable than Trump.

[Xing]

Regardless of the validity of this argument or what happens in 2024, everyone will claim to have known "all along" how "electable" DeSantis is.

[MT Treasurer]

"Who’d be a stronger nominee, the disgraced narcissistic former Republican president who has a 60% unfavorability rating, cost his party every election since 2017, encouraged an insurrection, and had the worst favorability ratings since the beginning of polling when he only barely beat the most unpopular Democratic nominee since the beginning of polling OR the popular swing/lean-R state governor who just won reelection by a historic landslide?"

"Oh geez, tough one. I’m gonna go with the former, personally. I think Republicans need the former to actually win elections. "

[David Hume]

Ik especially after his landslide re-election in 2022, a lot of people have been pointing to DeSantis as a potential R nominee who would come with a lot go Trump's strengths but without his baggage. However, I'm skeptical.

While it is true that there are def "never-Trumpers" out there who would vote for DeSantis but not Trump in a GE, this is a pretty small group unless DeSantis makes a pretty proactive effort to sufficiently distance himself from Trump which I don't think will happen.

Furthermore, you have a large chunk of Trump supporters that just wouldn't show up to vote for DeSantis in a GE, especially if you have a really contentious and negative primary. There's a good chance Trump claims DeSantis stole the primary if he wins, and he'll be salty until election day and tell his supporters not to show up. Most DeSantis voters seem to be supporting him through the lens of being "electable" or "time to move on", which indicates they are more team players who will show up and vote R pretty much no matter what.

Finally, I think while DeSantis may be relatively young and have a cute family, he is relatively uncharismatic. Just look at the recent 2022 Florida Gov debate; he was honestly kind of awkward, especially when it wasn't his turn to speak and trying to do "comebacks" against Christ. Obviously, this is a skill that can be improved, but I don't understand where his charisma comes from.

It's also worth noting that locking down FL isn't really a benefit to Rs in the way it was a decade ago. Florida is a *must win* for Rs; they have virtually no path to victory without it at the Pres level.

Historically, Dems have been seen as the more factioned party, but I think this cycle, the GOP is really going to have to find a way to both great Trump supporters to show up, and to win over "moderates/independents".

Tell me how likely would Trump win AZ and GA? And without these two, what's the chance that he wins presidency?

DeSantis is obviously much more likely to win these two Than Trump. Just look at how Kemp and Yee did. These two states hate Trump, but are ok win non-crazy Republicans like Kemp and Yee. And with these two states at hand, DeSantis only need to win either WI or NV+NE2, which is completely within reach.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Ik especially after his landslide re-election in 2022, a lot of people have been pointing to DeSantis as a potential R nominee who would come with a lot go Trump's strengths but without his baggage. However, I'm skeptical.

While it is true that there are def "never-Trumpers" out there who would vote for DeSantis but not Trump in a GE, this is a pretty small group unless DeSantis makes a pretty proactive effort to sufficiently distance himself from Trump which I don't think will happen.

Furthermore, you have a large chunk of Trump supporters that just wouldn't show up to vote for DeSantis in a GE, especially if you have a really contentious and negative primary. There's a good chance Trump claims DeSantis stole the primary if he wins, and he'll be salty until election day and tell his supporters not to show up. Most DeSantis voters seem to be supporting him through the lens of being "electable" or "time to move on", which indicates they are more team players who will show up and vote R pretty much no matter what.

Finally, I think while DeSantis may be relatively young and have a cute family, he is relatively uncharismatic. Just look at the recent 2022 Florida Gov debate; he was honestly kind of awkward, especially when it wasn't his turn to speak and trying to do "comebacks" against Christ. Obviously, this is a skill that can be improved, but I don't understand where his charisma comes from.

It's also worth noting that locking down FL isn't really a benefit to Rs in the way it was a decade ago. Florida is a *must win* for Rs; they have virtually no path to victory without it at the Pres level.

Historically, Dems have been seen as the more factioned party, but I think this cycle, the GOP is really going to have to find a way to both great Trump supporters to show up, and to win over "moderates/independents".

How sacrilegious.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Question to ProgressiveModerate,
Tell me how Trump can win a GE with a 39 % Favorable Rating with over 60 % viewing him Unfavorably. And that's nationally. In the Battleground States it is even worse for Trump.

Polarization. Biden and Dems were reguarly hovering around 40% approval over the past 2 years yet ended up with a historically strong midterm perfromance.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Question to ProgressiveModerate,
Tell me how Trump can win a GE with a 39 % Favorable Rating with over 60 % viewing him Unfavorably. And that's nationally. In the Battleground States it is even worse for Trump.

Polarization. Biden and Dems were reguarly hovering around 40% approval over the past 2 years yet ended up with a historically strong midterm perfromance.

What's perfromance? A performative romance?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Every Biden-DeSantis voter is more valuable than a Trump voter who sits out, because the former not only nets DeSantis a vote but also costs Biden one.

Thank you. "Increasing turnout" is overrated as a campaign strategy and it is quite arrogant tbh

Turnout really does matter, though I agree a good campaign needs to make efforts with turnout and "swing voters". A good example this cycle would be NYC, where Rs had turnout in the 60% while Ds were around just 40%, leading to Rs making some pretty significant gains at all levels.

In 2020, a lot of the reason Trump kept things so close is because in places such as the rust belt, the largest turnout increases were all from rural counties. I think 538 published an article about it a while back, and made some maps of states like WI and OH; if turnout dynamics were simillar to 2016 Biden likely would've carried WI by more and lost OH by less.

[they don't love you like i love you]

DeSantis is extremely overrated as a candidate and is basically the Republican Michael Dukakis in terms of hype:electoral strength ratio*, but Trump is an objectively atrocious candidate and this has been electorally proven: he's cost the Republicans three elections in a row, including one that defied all historical trends in terms of the incumbent party performance and arguably some of the best economic fundamentals for the GOP in decades, even his 2016 performance wasn't all that impressive and he mostly just got lucky with the distribution of his voters in key states while still losing the popular vote to the worst Democratic nominee in over 30 years, and he hasn't gotten stronger in a single way since leaving office.

*He would obviously do much better than Dukakis did due to much more intense polarization of course.

[Ferguson97]

DeSantis is extremely overrated as a candidate and is basically the Republican Michael Dukakis in terms of hype:electoral strength ratio*, but Trump is an objectively atrocious candidate and this has been electorally proven: he's cost the Republicans three elections in a row, including one that defied all historical trends in terms of the incumbent party performance and arguably some of the best economic fundamentals for the GOP in decades, even his 2016 performance wasn't all that impressive and he mostly just got lucky with the distribution of his voters in key states while still losing the popular vote to the worst Democratic nominee in over 30 years, and he hasn't gotten stronger in a single way since leaving office.

*He would obviously do much better than Dukakis did due to much more intense polarization of course.

Oooh, very good comparison. Imagine the Willie Horton-esque ads we could run against him?

"Biden and DeSantis on women. Biden supports abortion rights and reauthorized the Violence Against Women Act in 2022. DeSantis not only opposes abortion, he forces rape victims to give birth. One was Kaylee Johnson, a 12-year-old girl from Fort Lauderdale who was raped by her soccer coach. She found out she was pregnant at 16 weeks, but Florida has a 15-week abortion ban, and does not provide exceptions for victims of rape, even if they are minors. Forcing rape victims to give birth. DeSantis on women."