Unpopular take; Trump is still a stronger R nominee than DeSantis

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ik especially after his landslide re-election in 2022, a lot of people have been pointing to DeSantis as a potential R nominee who would come with a lot go Trump's strengths but without his baggage. However, I'm skeptical.

While it is true that there are def "never-Trumpers" out there who would vote for DeSantis but not Trump in a GE, this is a pretty small group unless DeSantis makes a pretty proactive effort to sufficiently distance himself from Trump which I don't think will happen.

Furthermore, you have a large chunk of Trump supporters that just wouldn't show up to vote for DeSantis in a GE, especially if you have a really contentious and negative primary. There's a good chance Trump claims DeSantis stole the primary if he wins, and he'll be salty until election day and tell his supporters not to show up. Most DeSantis voters seem to be supporting him through the lens of being "electable" or "time to move on", which indicates they are more team players who will show up and vote R pretty much no matter what.

Finally, I think while DeSantis may be relatively young and have a cute family, he is relatively uncharismatic. Just look at the recent 2022 Florida Gov debate; he was honestly kind of awkward, especially when it wasn't his turn to speak and trying to do "comebacks" against Christ. Obviously, this is a skill that can be improved, but I don't understand where his charisma comes from.

It's also worth noting that locking down FL isn't really a benefit to Rs in the way it was a decade ago. Florida is a *must win* for Rs; they have virtually no path to victory without it at the Pres level.

Historically, Dems have been seen as the more factioned party, but I think this cycle, the GOP is really going to have to find a way to both great Trump supporters to show up, and to win over "moderates/independents".

[ProgressiveModerate]

These are valid points, but I don't think you've fully considered that Trump is seen as treasonous by most independent voters in the aftermath of Jan 6. If that never happened, I'd say Trump would have a great chance at winning a rematch, but it did, and I don't think anyone has the skill to shake off that perception.

Yeah I agree that Trump has a lot of baggage, but I think that has turned many off to anyone in the R party that's remotely associated with him. Ig it's simillar to how in 2020, Rs were very successful at tying mainstream and moderate Ds to many on the far left staying focused on the BLM riots and stuff.

And once he's put under the national spotlight, DeSantis has to make where he stands clear. It's not like a more local race where someone like Fritzpatrick or Bacon can slip by without having to deal with a lot of these tough questions.

[ProgressiveModerate]

These are valid points

Not really, the OP is just passing off his unsubstantiated opinions as facts, like he did when he was adamant that Trump had "hit the Republican ceiling in Florida in 2020" and that there was no way DeSantis was going to win in a landslide in 2022.

Case in point:

1)

While it is true that there are def "never-Trumpers" out there who would vote for DeSantis but not Trump in a GE, this is a pretty small group

(citation needed)

2)

Furthermore, you have a large chunk of Trump supporters that just wouldn't show up to vote for DeSantis in a GE

(citation needed)

3)

Finally, I think while DeSantis may be relatively young and have a cute family, he is relatively uncharismatic.

He provides no evidence for #1 and #2. More importantly, however, all of his (evidence-free) 'arguments' leave the actual argument by most outside observers (not just on the right) as to why DeSantis would be more 'electable' than Trump (not that he’d be a shoo-in or anything, he wouldn’t!) unaddressed:

Ik especially after his landslide re-election in 2022, a lot of people have been pointing to DeSantis as a potential R nominee who would come with a lot go Trump's strengths but without his baggage. However, I'm skeptical.

In spite of its length, this is not a very compelling post at all.

I personally prefer to work with actual data points (e.g. election results which show that Trump has cost the party virtually every competitive national/federal race since 2016, polling data on Trump's abysmal favorability ratings, etc.) rather than his supposed "charisma" over DeSantis (suffice it to say that I..... am not the only one who would disagree), but that’s just me.

At the end of the day, these are all subjective things and I am going to have my own biases, everyone on this forum does. I feel like there should be places for talking about raw data but also about what we may think/percieve. I don't know exactly where I'm supposed to find like literal evidence to cite these lol.

I do concede though, I was wrong about Trump being close to the R ceiling in Florida, though I was correct about a lot of DeSantis's gains just coming from favorable turnout dynamics.

One of the things I dislike about this forum (and I'm often guilty of this too), is people acting very much like they're right even when there isn't any evidence to support nor not-support their conjecture. This is a forum for discussion of future possibilities, not rlly debating.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Question to ProgressiveModerate,
Tell me how Trump can win a GE with a 39 % Favorable Rating with over 60 % viewing him Unfavorably. And that's nationally. In the Battleground States it is even worse for Trump.

Polarization. Biden and Dems were reguarly hovering around 40% approval over the past 2 years yet ended up with a historically strong midterm perfromance.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Every Biden-DeSantis voter is more valuable than a Trump voter who sits out, because the former not only nets DeSantis a vote but also costs Biden one.

Thank you. "Increasing turnout" is overrated as a campaign strategy and it is quite arrogant tbh

Turnout really does matter, though I agree a good campaign needs to make efforts with turnout and "swing voters". A good example this cycle would be NYC, where Rs had turnout in the 60% while Ds were around just 40%, leading to Rs making some pretty significant gains at all levels.

In 2020, a lot of the reason Trump kept things so close is because in places such as the rust belt, the largest turnout increases were all from rural counties. I think 538 published an article about it a while back, and made some maps of states like WI and OH; if turnout dynamics were simillar to 2016 Biden likely would've carried WI by more and lost OH by less.