Unpopular take; Trump is still a stronger R nominee than DeSantis

[Agonized-Statism]

DeSantis is extremely overrated as a candidate and is basically the Republican Michael Dukakis in terms of hype:electoral strength ratio*

Agreed. What makes him different from any other post-2010 base-driven Republican? Trump had his unique freiwal upset and cult of personality.

[One Term Floridian]

Love him or hate him like I do, Trump is undeniably charismatic. When I saw him in person at a rally early in the 2016 campaign (I initially went for the lols), I walked out knowing that this guy was a legitimate contender for the presidency then.

[SWE]

DeSantis' ceiling is Trump's minus 10% because there's no scenario where he's the nominee and isn't sharing the ballot with a third party Trump

[2016]

DeSantis' ceiling is Trump's minus 10% because there's no scenario where he's the nominee and isn't sharing the ballot with a third party Trump

Trump won't go 3rd Party if he loses the Nomination. Stop the "Trolling".

Trump is nearly at the same age as Biden and could suddenly die. Many "Never Trumpers" actually hope that happens or that he is barred from seeking Office again.

[SWE]

DeSantis' ceiling is Trump's minus 10% because there's no scenario where he's the nominee and isn't sharing the ballot with a third party Trump

Trump won't go 3rd Party if he loses the Nomination. Stop the "Trolling".

Trump is nearly at the same age as Biden and could suddenly die. Many "Never Trumpers" actually hope that happens or that he is barred from seeking Office again.

We're talking about the same guy who committed treason because he couldn't accept that he lost an election to someone he hates half as much as he hates DeSantis, right? It's straight up delusional to expect him to recognize that he lost a primary to DeSantis

[OSR stands with Israel]

DeSantis' ceiling is Trump's minus 10% because there's no scenario where he's the nominee and isn't sharing the ballot with a third party Trump

Trump won't go 3rd Party if he loses the Nomination. Stop the "Trolling".

Trump is nearly at the same age as Biden and could suddenly die. Many "Never Trumpers" actually hope that happens or that he is barred from seeking Office again.

We're talking about the same guy who committed treason because he couldn't accept that he lost an election to someone he hates half as much as he hates DeSantis, right? It's straight up delusional to expect him to recognize that he lost a primary to DeSantis

1. Most States have sore loser laws so he won’t even be able to run in the majority of states

2.  Trump very well may be under indictment then so a democratic victory would almost certainly mean a more unfavorable justice department for Trump and would make getting a pardon/commutation basically impossible. Would Trump want to roll the dice with his own freedom here

[Dan the Roman]

Desantis's GE strength is overhyped by his fans, but that is the case with every candidate. It is also inflated in some hypothetical polling where he functions as that mythical entity "generic" which can be whatever anyone wants it to be, and most importantly not Trump.

He does have some flaws

1. Height
2. Sunbelt - Florida is not a branding asset to people who do not move there in large parts of the country. It is where their annoying neighbors moved and won't shut up about it. DeSantis has branded himself as the perfect Florida  candidate, but that involves having a superiority complex v. the rest of the country in the same way being a MA/CA Democrat does. The Dukakis comparison above is relevant but not entirely in the way it appears. It is less about charisma than it is that DeSantis' brand is he ran a "laboratory of conservatism" and in the process of selling it as a success he is de facto telling everyone Floridians are better than they are.
3. "Charisma" is less of an issue than manner. He comes across as angry and pugnacious. Major risk here is it being associated with weakness. He would be well advised to watch the Ryan/Biden debates to see how that can be made to come off as insecurity.

However

1. He has probably the best 21st century media operation in history. The best on the planet. An A+ operation can make up for a B- product
2. Trump is also now a Florida resident
3. Trump is also a loser

If this was between Donald Trump circa 2015 and DeSantis this thread might have a point. A NYC businessman tired of Democratic BS with close ties to every ethnic group? Would clobber a sunbelt promoter. But the problem is Donald Trump by moving to Florida, and losing has forfeited every one of his possible advantages. So he is left only with disadvantages.

Republicans who think DeSantis = 400 EV, 60 Senate seats and a thousand year reich are delusional. But this take doesn't stand up to minimal scrutiny.

[Roll Roons]

Trump does seem to bring a lot of otherwise low-propensity voters out of the woodwork, but he also inspires a lot of people to turn out against him - people who otherwise may be open to voting for Republicans but can't do it as long as the specter of Trump is still around.

You could argue that DeSantis's margin was inflated because Democratic turnout in Florida fell off a cliff. However, if he was as scary a boogeyman as Trump is, you'd think Florida Democrats would have been super motivated to vote him out. Clearly, they weren't. Yes, Crist wasn't the most inspiring candidate, but neither was Biden.

[Fargobison]

Trump is weak, the amount of Trump fatigue not just when in it comes to independents but also now on the right is becoming very real. Trump's entire act grows tiring when it results in nothing but loss after loss. He is a far weaker candidate than many realize.

I am still not sure that DeSantis is this powerhouse candidate but I think his biggest threat is not Trump but somebody else.

[SN2903]

Trump is weak, the amount of Trump fatigue not just when in it comes to independents but also now on the right is becoming very real. Trump's entire act grows tiring when it results in nothing but loss after loss. He is a far weaker candidate than many realize.

I am still not sure that DeSantis is this powerhouse candidate but I think his biggest threat is not Trump but somebody else.

Youngkin. He is 6'7" (would be the tallest president ever), has underrated charm/charisma and is a successful GOP governor from a blue state who effectively is running on Trump's policies on culture and economics.

[2016]

It's hilarious how bad this forum is rooting for Trump to be the nominee again. Trump is collapsing period. It may not be overnight but he is slowly becoming a fringe within the GOP. The vast majority of Republicans support Trump's policies (90+%) but they ARE DONE WITH HIM. He did his job. He destroyed the Clinton and Bush dynasties and had an overall successful presidency. He is costing the GOP elections, votes and making it too easy for the democrats to win because all he talks about is insane conspiracy theories and is not focused on the issues that won him the 2016 election. He will NOT be the nominee. Trump had an amazing run but it ended in 2020 and he's not going to be able to get the magic back. Democrats are not going to get the turnout and moderate appeal without Trump. Someone like Youngkin can successfully run and govern on Trump's policies without having the baggage of being Trump as a person. DeSantis is overrated but that doesn't mean he can't win. Against someone like Biden it will not take much for a Republican to win because the bar is so low with it not being Trump. 2022 election basically said we are against Biden/dems but don't want Trump or election deniers either. Youngkin would have more national appeal than DeSantis especially in the Midwest. I don't think Biden is underrated. I think Trump as a political candidate is clearly OVERRATED.

I would rather have Youngkin challenging Senator Mark Warner in 2026. Even if it's a DeSantis' Midterm then if Youngkin & Kemp run for Senate we can stem potentially losses elsewhere if we win those.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Love him or hate him like I do, Trump is undeniably charismatic. When I saw him in person at a rally early in the 2016 campaign (I initially went for the lols), I walked out knowing that this guy was a legitimate contender for the presidency then.

As always, I think 'charismatic' is not quite the right word. Trump inspires as much revulsion as adulation. His presence is polarizing - few people walk away from Trump saying, "I really disagree with him, but he seems like a good person." Trump appeals to those drawn to evil, and weak-minded fools. He is a vile and persuasive huckster, but I think Obama, W, and Clinton all had far more charisma than he does.

[SN2903]

Love him or hate him like I do, Trump is undeniably charismatic. When I saw him in person at a rally early in the 2016 campaign (I initially went for the lols), I walked out knowing that this guy was a legitimate contender for the presidency then.

As always, I think 'charismatic' is not quite the right word. Trump inspires as much revulsion as adulation. His presence is polarizing - few people walk away from Trump saying, "I really disagree with him, but he seems like a good person." Trump appeals to those drawn to evil, and weak-minded fools. He is a vile and persuasive huckster, but I think Obama, W, and Clinton all had far more charisma than he does.

Anyone who gets elected President has some level of talent and skill. Just how it is.

[DaleCooper]

Love him or hate him like I do, Trump is undeniably charismatic. When I saw him in person at a rally early in the 2016 campaign (I initially went for the lols), I walked out knowing that this guy was a legitimate contender for the presidency then.

As always, I think 'charismatic' is not quite the right word. Trump inspires as much revulsion as adulation. His presence is polarizing - few people walk away from Trump saying, "I really disagree with him, but he seems like a good person." Trump appeals to those drawn to evil, and weak-minded fools. He is a vile and persuasive huckster, but I think Obama, W, and Clinton all had far more charisma than he does.

Anyone who gets elected President has some level of talent and skill. Just how it is.

I disagree.

[SN2903]

Love him or hate him like I do, Trump is undeniably charismatic. When I saw him in person at a rally early in the 2016 campaign (I initially went for the lols), I walked out knowing that this guy was a legitimate contender for the presidency then.

As always, I think 'charismatic' is not quite the right word. Trump inspires as much revulsion as adulation. His presence is polarizing - few people walk away from Trump saying, "I really disagree with him, but he seems like a good person." Trump appeals to those drawn to evil, and weak-minded fools. He is a vile and persuasive huckster, but I think Obama, W, and Clinton all had far more charisma than he does.

Anyone who gets elected President has some level of talent and skill. Just how it is.

I disagree.

Really? Name someone who got elected and was talent less?

[DaleCooper]

Love him or hate him like I do, Trump is undeniably charismatic. When I saw him in person at a rally early in the 2016 campaign (I initially went for the lols), I walked out knowing that this guy was a legitimate contender for the presidency then.

As always, I think 'charismatic' is not quite the right word. Trump inspires as much revulsion as adulation. His presence is polarizing - few people walk away from Trump saying, "I really disagree with him, but he seems like a good person." Trump appeals to those drawn to evil, and weak-minded fools. He is a vile and persuasive huckster, but I think Obama, W, and Clinton all had far more charisma than he does.

Anyone who gets elected President has some level of talent and skill. Just how it is.

I disagree.

Really? Name someone who got elected and was talent less?

Dubya. Trump.

[SN2903]

Love him or hate him like I do, Trump is undeniably charismatic. When I saw him in person at a rally early in the 2016 campaign (I initially went for the lols), I walked out knowing that this guy was a legitimate contender for the presidency then.

As always, I think 'charismatic' is not quite the right word. Trump inspires as much revulsion as adulation. His presence is polarizing - few people walk away from Trump saying, "I really disagree with him, but he seems like a good person." Trump appeals to those drawn to evil, and weak-minded fools. He is a vile and persuasive huckster, but I think Obama, W, and Clinton all had far more charisma than he does.

Anyone who gets elected President has some level of talent and skill. Just how it is.

I disagree.

Really? Name someone who got elected and was talent less?

Dubya. Trump.

W was a seriously talented retail politician. Even Democrats admitted that. Trump is talented at branding and showmanship. MAGA was a powerful slogan that worked pretty dang well for a while. I disagree completely that they had no talent.

[DaleCooper]

Love him or hate him like I do, Trump is undeniably charismatic. When I saw him in person at a rally early in the 2016 campaign (I initially went for the lols), I walked out knowing that this guy was a legitimate contender for the presidency then.

As always, I think 'charismatic' is not quite the right word. Trump inspires as much revulsion as adulation. His presence is polarizing - few people walk away from Trump saying, "I really disagree with him, but he seems like a good person." Trump appeals to those drawn to evil, and weak-minded fools. He is a vile and persuasive huckster, but I think Obama, W, and Clinton all had far more charisma than he does.

Anyone who gets elected President has some level of talent and skill. Just how it is.

I disagree.

Really? Name someone who got elected and was talent less?

Dubya. Trump.

W was a seriously talented retail politician. Even Democrats admitted that. Trump is talented at branding and showmanship. MAGA was a powerful slogan that worked pretty dang well for a while. I disagree completely that they had no talent.

When the electorate is as dumb as it is, having no talent can actually be an asset.

[SN2903]

Love him or hate him like I do, Trump is undeniably charismatic. When I saw him in person at a rally early in the 2016 campaign (I initially went for the lols), I walked out knowing that this guy was a legitimate contender for the presidency then.

As always, I think 'charismatic' is not quite the right word. Trump inspires as much revulsion as adulation. His presence is polarizing - few people walk away from Trump saying, "I really disagree with him, but he seems like a good person." Trump appeals to those drawn to evil, and weak-minded fools. He is a vile and persuasive huckster, but I think Obama, W, and Clinton all had far more charisma than he does.

Anyone who gets elected President has some level of talent and skill. Just how it is.

I disagree.

Really? Name someone who got elected and was talent less?

Dubya. Trump.

W was a seriously talented retail politician. Even Democrats admitted that. Trump is talented at branding and showmanship. MAGA was a powerful slogan that worked pretty dang well for a while. I disagree completely that they had no talent.

When the electorate is as dumb as it is, having no talent can actually be an asset.

The electorate is definitely erratic. We tend to go on wild swings as a nation from W to Obama to Trump. I honestly think a lot of it is personality.

[Kleine Scheiße]

True

[QAnonKelly]

DeSantis lacks Trump's animal magnetism.