Ron Desantis might be peaking too early

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He's not gonna be Prez

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think the difference between Scott Walker and Ron DeSantis is that DeSantis actually did all this trolly stuff that the base loves.

DeSantis can get up on stage and talk about "banning the woke agenda from our schools" and "sending illegal immigrants to blue states" or "stopping Dr. Fauci from telling us how to live our lives" and people will cheer and applaud.

Meanwhile Walker was known for making life miserable for unions and rejecting Obamacare funds, neither of which are issues that resonate with the base.  They resonate with the billionaire donor class and writers for The Federalist which is how he got so much hype.  And then nobody cared once he actually got on stage.

This is why I think that a lot of the hype around DeSantis as some god-tier general election candidate is very odd. Most of his major 'accomplishments' are just culture war nonsense that only appeals to the GOP base. Normal people and swing voters don't care about that stuff. I'm not convinced why DeSantis whining about Disney being too woke is any less embarrassing than most of the stuff Trump does.

DeSantis/Kemp/Abbott all did very well despite being pretty conservative. It was clear that wasn’t the issue in this election but rather the Trump factor and the terrible candidates we nominated were

This argument doesn't hold since trumpy candidates also performed well and establishment candidates performed poorly and lost. Blaming trump because you want to move on from trump doesn't make your argument correct

Uh the most prominent Republican candidates who were Trumpy this cycle were : Doug Mastriano , Kari Lake , Blake Masters , Dr Oz , Joe Kent , Hershel Walker and guess what the 5 of them lost and the 6th will likely lose as well . While you could cite JD Vance the fact is he underperformed 2020 GOP numbers in a year when the republicans won the popular vote nationally so he was basically saved by the state’s partisan lean .


It’s clear DeSantis is the way the party should go , just like in 1979 it was clear the party needed to choose Reagan and while you may not like Reagan he was undeniably was the most successful conservative president in the modern era and DeSantis has that potential as well . We already tried it with Trump and guess what he failed .

You guys are better off running Youngkin if you want to truly distance yourselves from Trumpism. DeSantis is much closer to Trump than he is to Youngkin.

Youngkin and DeSantis aren’t that different imo and he is my number 2 candidate for 2024 as well . It’s just that he hasn’t been governor long enough yet imo which is why I give DeSantis the edge .

You know neither have a great chance because it's a 303 map, DeSantis never faced the scrutiny a Natl campaign will undertake either from the media, Trump or Biden, and he never lost yet once he start losing primaries his ora of invincibility will be shattered and he will start losing primaries to Trump

Rs want a 20 percent across the board rate cut with Corporate, and inheritance and investment taxes it's not gonna hold up by 2035 everyone even people on 401 K take out SSA and SSA is going bankrupt we need to raise taxes to keep SSA solvent, guess what Corporate taxes are gonna be 50 percent by the time 2/45 roles around we are outliving out Boomer parents because of Anthesisia

It's silly that Rs don't want to raise Corporate taxes that the Koch brothers write because guess what who paid for our stimulus checks Corporations not us the ones we worked for that's why it's adjudicated for disability and unemployment because your employer don't want you taking our Early retirement

Bill Gates said this that taxes gonna be raised he is a D you don't see Koch brothers you only see Rs because tax cuts isn't a reality since we are living longer, we don't know when we are gonna die because technology with anthesis is so advanced that fatal heart attacks or strokes that our parents died from aren't inevitable and they did drug abuse as well and we do less so, they say we can live a century or longer you can work or retire it's your choice

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What Prez loses at 4 percent unemployment none that's why DeSantis isn't gonna win, period, they Rs not raising taxes and and insolvency of SSA is unsubstanable.

If COVID didn't happen in 20 Trump would of been fav to win reelection , like Biden is now 4 percent unemployment

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden Approvals are going up Rs have zero chance of cracking MI, WI and PA even with DeSantis

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

When has an incumbent Prez ever lost at 4.2%, Obama won in 2012 with 6% unemployment the unemployment rate is the same as it was in 2004 under Bush W when he beat Kerry and DeSantis isn't beating Biden by a landslide it's MOE

Emerson 43/39% over DeSantis if the unemployment rate was PrePandemic levels the way Trump almost won at 9% he would of won at 4%

Why do you think Rs underperforming expectations and didn't get 240 seats that Sabato and Cook promise 4% unemployment they got 220

Trump is in trouble in NC it's tied and FL it's 51/49 and the campaign hasn't even Started

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump forever changed the game. That only goes so far. The type of Republican who will win a primary is the same republican that will lose a general election where it matters - see AZ/MI/PA.

As mentioned above, a Romney like candidate will lose bc of the turnout issue.
A trump like candidate will lose bc if higher turnout among Dems. MAGA of any stripe will always turn out the Dem base against the gop, so they really are screwed.

So how did trump 2016 succeed then?
1. He was a true Outsider
2. Dem Party fatigue
3. Messy Dem primary
4. Exceptional loathing of HRC
5. Dem candidate did not visit WI/MI at all. Had she, she would have won these two.
6. The rural/suburban differentials were not as pronounced as they are now and trump was able to bridge the gap between higher rural turnout as it was shifting hard red, and mitigating suburban losses as it was shifting blue.
7. Lack of state organization among Dems in key swing states. Republicans will call this fortification.


All 7 of those factors had to be true and trump still didn’t win the popular vote.

It will Require a perfect storm for any Republican to win again at the national level, and they only have trump to blame.  

You are completely out of your mind. If DeSantis becomes the Nominee he will win hands down. It will be an 2008 Obama/McCain Redux with Roles reversed and Biden be the 80+ old Gaga Figure and DeSantis the competent young, energetic sub 50-year old Challenger.

Age is a massive Problem for Both, Trump and Biden. Both have Dementia.

McCain didn't lose just on age he picked Palin, and Bush W was unpopular due to Iraq War and backlash to Katrina and the Larry gay sex scandal happened in MN where the R convention was in 2007 thatscwhy Coleman and Ensign and told Larry Craig to resign and Craig waited til after Eday to resign McCain said he should of picked Romney

But the unemployment rate is the same as it was in 2004 and Biden probably gets to 50% anyways on Eday like Obama Obama was at 46% at this stage of Prez in 2012

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Let me correct the record

2016 really thinks that the reason why Rs underperforming was due to bad candidates how about Rs not getting 240 seats and only getting 220 how about LAXALT, Masters, Lake, Michels and Walker losing it has to do with unemployment is at 4.2 percent not 10% Rs won 241seats in 2010 because unemployment was 10% not 4.2% an incumbent Prez never loses with low unemployment Trump lost because unemployment was 9% but he clearly overperforning because if wasn't any inflation until 2021 when wages went up to 15 from 10 but inflation had to do with Ds losing red states that's why Ryan, Beasley lost

McCain lost in 2008 because unemployment was 7.5%, if unemployment was low without inflation in 2020 before the Insurrection Trump would of Lost again DeSantis hasn't been scrutinized in a Natl campaign and if he gets in he will face nothing like what Gillum and Crist did he will face an onslaught from Biden or Trump

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not saying DeSantis can't win what I am saying let's wait til primaries begin, everyone knows that Trump is trying to get off on his crimes either from a pardon or him being Prez this will be flushed out if and when DeSantis does become the nominee, cutting taxes, Surfside and Hurricane Ian is good but how does it help 30/100 M minorities in poverty he said he is against Student loan Discharge and he was wealthy to become an Ivy League Lawyer

That's why outside of FL he polls so low because he hasn't done much for America outside of FL he is stuck in Emerson poll43/39% not 60/40 he won by for a reason