Ron Desantis might be peaking too early

[2016]

DeSantis won't be the first highly touted candidate who probably won't survive his first contact with voters.
Remember Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, Tim Pawlenty, Scott Walker, etc.

LOL, comparing Ron DeSantis to Giuliani, Thompson, Pawlenty or Scott Walker is beyond pale from you.

DeSantis won't turn into another Scott Walker I'll promise you that.

[2016]

Tell that to nominees Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump and Mitt Romney.  They all dominated or lead early primary polls in the year before the election

Are you still on the Trump Train?

[2016]

Trump forever changed the game. That only goes so far. The type of Republican who will win a primary is the same republican that will lose a general election where it matters - see AZ/MI/PA.

As mentioned above, a Romney like candidate will lose bc of the turnout issue.
A trump like candidate will lose bc if higher turnout among Dems. MAGA of any stripe will always turn out the Dem base against the gop, so they really are screwed.

So how did trump 2016 succeed then?
1. He was a true Outsider
2. Dem Party fatigue
3. Messy Dem primary
4. Exceptional loathing of HRC
5. Dem candidate did not visit WI/MI at all. Had she, she would have won these two.
6. The rural/suburban differentials were not as pronounced as they are now and trump was able to bridge the gap between higher rural turnout as it was shifting hard red, and mitigating suburban losses as it was shifting blue.
7. Lack of state organization among Dems in key swing states. Republicans will call this fortification.


All 7 of those factors had to be true and trump still didn’t win the popular vote.

It will Require a perfect storm for any Republican to win again at the national level, and they only have trump to blame.  

You are completely out of your mind. If DeSantis becomes the Nominee he will win hands down. It will be an 2008 Obama/McCain Redux with Roles reversed and Biden be the 80+ old Gaga Figure and DeSantis the competent young, energetic sub 50-year old Challenger.

Age is a massive Problem for Both, Trump and Biden. Both have Dementia.

[2016]

Trump forever changed the game. That only goes so far. The type of Republican who will win a primary is the same republican that will lose a general election where it matters - see AZ/MI/PA.

As mentioned above, a Romney like candidate will lose bc of the turnout issue.
A trump like candidate will lose bc if higher turnout among Dems. MAGA of any stripe will always turn out the Dem base against the gop, so they really are screwed.

So how did trump 2016 succeed then?
1. He was a true Outsider
2. Dem Party fatigue
3. Messy Dem primary
4. Exceptional loathing of HRC
5. Dem candidate did not visit WI/MI at all. Had she, she would have won these two.
6. The rural/suburban differentials were not as pronounced as they are now and trump was able to bridge the gap between higher rural turnout as it was shifting hard red, and mitigating suburban losses as it was shifting blue.
7. Lack of state organization among Dems in key swing states. Republicans will call this fortification.


All 7 of those factors had to be true and trump still didn’t win the popular vote.

It will Require a perfect storm for any Republican to win again at the national level, and they only have trump to blame.  

You are completely out of your mind. If DeSantis becomes the Nominee he will win hands down. It will be an 2008 Obama/McCain Redux with Roles reversed and Biden be the 80+ old Gaga Figure and DeSantis the competent young, energetic sub 50-year old Challenger.

Age is a massive Problem for Both, Trump and Biden. Both have Dementia.

I’m out of my mind…really? Which one or any of those seven points is not true, and which ones if any can be replicated in 2024?

Also, What gives you the impression DeSantis is going to win nationally “hands down”? Yes his win was sizeable here but it’s hardly reflective of the rest of the country as we saw on Nov 8, which by all accounts should have been a red wave not just Florida. While trump may not be 100% at fault at all the losses (Gop est are also good at losing), you can’t honestly say his brand (or a derivative of MAGA) isn’t DOA in a general election.

Citation needed for both to be fair. The age issue is a fair point, but let’s not spread conspiracy theories.

You are wrong. The GOP not having a Red Wave is entirely because of DONALD JOHN TRUMP. He picked these Candidates to run. He inserted himself into the 2022 Campaign at absolutely the wrong time with these massive Rallys.
Jane Timken or Matt Dolan would have beaten Tim Ryan by a comfortable double digit margin.
Look, I don't like McConnell but he is right: Candidate Quality matters. Mastriano dragged down the entire GOP Ticket in PA. Republicans did not win a single Dem-held House Seat in PA all because of Mastriano and Trump.
Same with Tudor Dixon in Michigan.