Ron Desantis might be peaking too early

[TodayJunior]

Trump forever changed the game. That only goes so far. The type of Republican who will win a primary is the same republican that will lose a general election where it matters - see AZ/MI/PA.

As mentioned above, a Romney like candidate will lose bc of the turnout issue.
A trump like candidate will lose bc if higher turnout among Dems. MAGA of any stripe will always turn out the Dem base against the gop, so they really are screwed.

So how did trump 2016 succeed then?
1. He was a true Outsider
2. Dem Party fatigue
3. Messy Dem primary
4. Exceptional loathing of HRC
5. Dem candidate did not visit WI/MI at all. Had she, she would have won these two.
6. The rural/suburban differentials were not as pronounced as they are now and trump was able to bridge the gap between higher rural turnout as it was shifting hard red, and mitigating suburban losses as it was shifting blue.
7. Lack of state organization among Dems in key swing states. Republicans will call this fortification.


All 7 of those factors had to be true and trump still didn’t win the popular vote.

It will Require a perfect storm for any Republican to win again at the national level, and they only have trump to blame.  

You are completely out of your mind. If DeSantis becomes the Nominee he will win hands down. It will be an 2008 Obama/McCain Redux with Roles reversed and Biden be the 80+ old Gaga Figure and DeSantis the competent young, energetic sub 50-year old Challenger.

Age is a massive Problem for Both, Trump and Biden. Both have Dementia.

I’m out of my mind…really? Which one or any of those seven points is not true, and which ones if any can be replicated in 2024?

Also, What gives you the impression DeSantis is going to win nationally “hands down”? Yes his win was sizeable here but it’s hardly reflective of the rest of the country as we saw on Nov 8, which by all accounts should have been a red wave not just Florida. While trump may not be 100% at fault at all the losses (Gop est are also good at losing), you can’t honestly say his brand (or a derivative of MAGA) isn’t DOA in a general election.

Citation needed for both to be fair. The age issue is a fair point, but let’s not spread conspiracy theories.

[2016]

Trump forever changed the game. That only goes so far. The type of Republican who will win a primary is the same republican that will lose a general election where it matters - see AZ/MI/PA.

As mentioned above, a Romney like candidate will lose bc of the turnout issue.
A trump like candidate will lose bc if higher turnout among Dems. MAGA of any stripe will always turn out the Dem base against the gop, so they really are screwed.

So how did trump 2016 succeed then?
1. He was a true Outsider
2. Dem Party fatigue
3. Messy Dem primary
4. Exceptional loathing of HRC
5. Dem candidate did not visit WI/MI at all. Had she, she would have won these two.
6. The rural/suburban differentials were not as pronounced as they are now and trump was able to bridge the gap between higher rural turnout as it was shifting hard red, and mitigating suburban losses as it was shifting blue.
7. Lack of state organization among Dems in key swing states. Republicans will call this fortification.


All 7 of those factors had to be true and trump still didn’t win the popular vote.

It will Require a perfect storm for any Republican to win again at the national level, and they only have trump to blame.  

You are completely out of your mind. If DeSantis becomes the Nominee he will win hands down. It will be an 2008 Obama/McCain Redux with Roles reversed and Biden be the 80+ old Gaga Figure and DeSantis the competent young, energetic sub 50-year old Challenger.

Age is a massive Problem for Both, Trump and Biden. Both have Dementia.

I’m out of my mind…really? Which one or any of those seven points is not true, and which ones if any can be replicated in 2024?

Also, What gives you the impression DeSantis is going to win nationally “hands down”? Yes his win was sizeable here but it’s hardly reflective of the rest of the country as we saw on Nov 8, which by all accounts should have been a red wave not just Florida. While trump may not be 100% at fault at all the losses (Gop est are also good at losing), you can’t honestly say his brand (or a derivative of MAGA) isn’t DOA in a general election.

Citation needed for both to be fair. The age issue is a fair point, but let’s not spread conspiracy theories.

You are wrong. The GOP not having a Red Wave is entirely because of DONALD JOHN TRUMP. He picked these Candidates to run. He inserted himself into the 2022 Campaign at absolutely the wrong time with these massive Rallys.
Jane Timken or Matt Dolan would have beaten Tim Ryan by a comfortable double digit margin.
Look, I don't like McConnell but he is right: Candidate Quality matters. Mastriano dragged down the entire GOP Ticket in PA. Republicans did not win a single Dem-held House Seat in PA all because of Mastriano and Trump.
Same with Tudor Dixon in Michigan.

[HisGrace]

DeSantis in his current state being the "peak" of anything is a pretty sad thought.

[Roll Roons]

DeSantis in his current state being the "peak" of anything is a pretty sad thought.

Fresh off a victory in which he almost singlehandedly turned a huge state from a pure tossup into a red bastion. Yeah, real sad. 

[Saint Milei]

I think the difference between Scott Walker and Ron DeSantis is that DeSantis actually did all this trolly stuff that the base loves.

DeSantis can get up on stage and talk about "banning the woke agenda from our schools" and "sending illegal immigrants to blue states" or "stopping Dr. Fauci from telling us how to live our lives" and people will cheer and applaud.

Meanwhile Walker was known for making life miserable for unions and rejecting Obamacare funds, neither of which are issues that resonate with the base.  They resonate with the billionaire donor class and writers for The Federalist which is how he got so much hype.  And then nobody cared once he actually got on stage.

This is why I think that a lot of the hype around DeSantis as some god-tier general election candidate is very odd. Most of his major 'accomplishments' are just culture war nonsense that only appeals to the GOP base. Normal people and swing voters don't care about that stuff. I'm not convinced why DeSantis whining about Disney being too woke is any less embarrassing than most of the stuff Trump does.

DeSantis/Kemp/Abbott all did very well despite being pretty conservative. It was clear that wasn’t the issue in this election but rather the Trump factor and the terrible candidates we nominated were

This argument doesn't hold since trumpy candidates also performed well and establishment candidates performed poorly and lost. Blaming trump because you want to move on from trump doesn't make your argument correct

Uh the most prominent Republican candidates who were Trumpy this cycle were : Doug Mastriano , Kari Lake , Blake Masters , Dr Oz , Joe Kent , Hershel Walker and guess what the 5 of them lost and the 6th will likely lose as well . While you could cite JD Vance the fact is he underperformed 2020 GOP numbers in a year when the republicans won the popular vote nationally so he was basically saved by the state’s partisan lean .


It’s clear DeSantis is the way the party should go , just like in 1979 it was clear the party needed to choose Reagan and while you may not like Reagan he was undeniably was the most successful conservative president in the modern era and DeSantis has that potential as well . We already tried it with Trump and guess what he failed .

In what world were Oz and Walker "Trumpy"? You keep grouping trump-endorsed candidates like the GOP establishment didn't back a majority of the candidates that lost this cycle. Trump endorsements =/= Trumpy candidates. Furthermore, what's also ignored is the fact that incumbents overwhelmingly won in 2022 across the aisle, regardless of what wing of any party they represented. That is conveniently ignored by the moderate wing of the GOP that wants to discard Trump. "Underperformed 2020". It's midterms. Candidates will underperform every year that isn't a presidential year. I never once expected a red wave. You guys did because the media told you. Maybe instead of blaming every "trumpy" candidate we should reassess everything so we don't make a foolish error. This same line of criticism of trump is the same reasoning people used in 2012 to conclude immigration was the reason Romney lost. It clearly wasn't.

As for Desantis, look man, I get it: You like Reagan. He's your guy. Desantis is NOT Reagan. Reagan in 76 and 80 wasn't even your kind of Republican. The dude backed returning to the gold standard which you always criticize me and Ron Paul for (I don't even support returning to the gold standard). The current conditions don't reflect that. Desantis is apart of the America First movement. Comparing him to Reagan or saying we need to go in that direction makes zero sense because you never liked Trump. It makes no sense. Replacing Trump with Trump jr does nothing for the party and it's more likely you and the others who want to replace him want to revert back to the pre-16 Trump GOP. You can say we tried with Trump, but we have tried your model for the GOP and we lost in 08 and 16. We also got Bush in 88, Bush in 00, and Bush in 04, and as a result, created the conditions for Trump and did nothing to improve our standing with an increasingly more diverse country both ethnically and philosophically. Desantis has no answer to this on a national level. Romney had no answer to this on a national level and if we keep painting this as the "Trump bad...Desantis/Youngkin good", you'll just end up being disliked by the rest of the GOP.

I'd also like to point out that Desantis is closer to Lake and Masters ideologically than he is the people you traditionally like. Who else were we supposed to nominate? A John Mccain clone in Arizona that pisses every conservative off? Yeah, totally the Reagan/Desantis model.


Lastly, I don't even know why this has to be stated but Reagan might have won in 80 and 84 and those were successful years for the GOP, but Trump had a larger impact on the GOP than Reagan and it's glaringly obvious at this point.

1. They were Trumpy in the fact that they were handpicked by Trump to run in their primaries and while the GOP establishment deserves blame for not picking someone to run against Walker in the primary , the fact is McCormick was the Establishment Republican pick in PA and the Trump endorsed candidate beat him so yes he is completely Trump’s fault .

2. Yes I know DeSantis is not Reagan , as we are over 40 years out from 1980 so of course he’d be different. Also yes I know that Reagan had some ideas I wouldn’t agree with but he also clearly didn’t emphasize that idea nearly as much as he did on stuff like : Passing Kemp-Roth, Reducing the amount of regulations in the economy, reducing the power of the federal government(which he did fail on ) and implementing a more aggressive foreign policy .

3. I don’t want to go back to Pre Trump days either , I don’t know why you think that . The reason why I like DeSantis is because he is a competent executive who fights for conservative ideas and has a record of doing so in a major state just like Reagan did by 76/80. I btw not have supported Reagan in the 68 primaries cause he didn’t have that record then and I care about record which is why my top 2 candidates in 16 were Kasich and Walker despite one of them running a far more conservative campaign then the other .

I do not think Bush Jr was good either because he was massively incompetent.

4. This is not true  given that Reagan was the icon for republicanism and his policies were a model for the party for nearly 30 years after he left office .

That makes zero sense. Trump picking politicians doesn't make them trumpy. Neither took extreme positions like that ayt all. They were moderate Republicans running with a trump endorsement. That's an indictment on that wing of the party.

Desantis has no serious success besides the culture war issues.



Most states didn't even adopt the Reagan approach. There wasn't a successor after him. The gop was already failing by 1982. The right had changed by 96

1. Well I have a bigger problem with Trump than Trumpism and that has always been the case. I stated multiple times in 2020 if Trump didnt behave as badly as he did , I would have voted for him.

2. DeSantis has done a good deal of stuff on economic issues, education etc.

3. This is false, the core of what Reagan actually did was replace the prior New Deal economic consensus with a new neoliberal one by slashing taxes, reducing regulations , expanding free trade and on foreign policy to put the US on a far more aggressive footing and pretty much every Republican until Trump pretty much agreed with the Reagan neoliberal consensus.

1. If that was the case, you wouldn't be addressing his candidates and instead be addressing him mostly. It wasn't his fault those candidates flopped.
2. He hasn't done much at all economically. Desantis' success is culture war issues. This isn't a knock on him, but to pretend he's some great fiscal con governor that can move the country is just speculation at this point.
 

[SCNCmod]

I have wondered the same thing (is Desantis peaking too early).

Although- On one hand Republicans sometimes have a tendency to not get too creative (in the past this was sometimes to stick with the previous primary runner up)... so I could see Desantis sort of filling that position (since Ted Cruz is never going to get the nom).

But the flip side... I think DeSantis could prove to be a lack lister candidate. He seems to be effective gaining popularity while leading/ performing duties- But he hasn't been an especially good debater or campaign speaker.

[TodayJunior]

Trump forever changed the game. That only goes so far. The type of Republican who will win a primary is the same republican that will lose a general election where it matters - see AZ/MI/PA.

As mentioned above, a Romney like candidate will lose bc of the turnout issue.
A trump like candidate will lose bc if higher turnout among Dems. MAGA of any stripe will always turn out the Dem base against the gop, so they really are screwed.

So how did trump 2016 succeed then?
1. He was a true Outsider
2. Dem Party fatigue
3. Messy Dem primary
4. Exceptional loathing of HRC
5. Dem candidate did not visit WI/MI at all. Had she, she would have won these two.
6. The rural/suburban differentials were not as pronounced as they are now and trump was able to bridge the gap between higher rural turnout as it was shifting hard red, and mitigating suburban losses as it was shifting blue.
7. Lack of state organization among Dems in key swing states. Republicans will call this fortification.


All 7 of those factors had to be true and trump still didn’t win the popular vote.

It will Require a perfect storm for any Republican to win again at the national level, and they only have trump to blame.  

You are completely out of your mind. If DeSantis becomes the Nominee he will win hands down. It will be an 2008 Obama/McCain Redux with Roles reversed and Biden be the 80+ old Gaga Figure and DeSantis the competent young, energetic sub 50-year old Challenger.

Age is a massive Problem for Both, Trump and Biden. Both have Dementia.

I’m out of my mind…really? Which one or any of those seven points is not true, and which ones if any can be replicated in 2024?

Also, What gives you the impression DeSantis is going to win nationally “hands down”? Yes his win was sizeable here but it’s hardly reflective of the rest of the country as we saw on Nov 8, which by all accounts should have been a red wave not just Florida. While trump may not be 100% at fault at all the losses (Gop est are also good at losing), you can’t honestly say his brand (or a derivative of MAGA) isn’t DOA in a general election.

Citation needed for both to be fair. The age issue is a fair point, but let’s not spread conspiracy theories.

You are wrong. The GOP not having a Red Wave is entirely because of DONALD JOHN TRUMP. He picked these Candidates to run. He inserted himself into the 2022 Campaign at absolutely the wrong time with these massive Rallys.
Jane Timken or Matt Dolan would have beaten Tim Ryan by a comfortable double digit margin.
Look, I don't like McConnell but he is right: Candidate Quality matters. Mastriano dragged down the entire GOP Ticket in PA. Republicans did not win a single Dem-held House Seat in PA all because of Mastriano and Trump.
Same with Tudor Dixon in Michigan.

Well, his pal JD Vance won, so there's that W. but yeah you're right, Trump is a drag. Sucks to be a republican right now bc they can't shake him like a bad cold.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trump forever changed the game. That only goes so far. The type of Republican who will win a primary is the same republican that will lose a general election where it matters - see AZ/MI/PA.

As mentioned above, a Romney like candidate will lose bc of the turnout issue.
A trump like candidate will lose bc if higher turnout among Dems. MAGA of any stripe will always turn out the Dem base against the gop, so they really are screwed.

So how did trump 2016 succeed then?
1. He was a true Outsider
2. Dem Party fatigue
3. Messy Dem primary
4. Exceptional loathing of HRC
5. Dem candidate did not visit WI/MI at all. Had she, she would have won these two.
6. The rural/suburban differentials were not as pronounced as they are now and trump was able to bridge the gap between higher rural turnout as it was shifting hard red, and mitigating suburban losses as it was shifting blue.
7. Lack of state organization among Dems in key swing states. Republicans will call this fortification.


All 7 of those factors had to be true and trump still didn’t win the popular vote.

It will Require a perfect storm for any Republican to win again at the national level, and they only have trump to blame.  

You are completely out of your mind. If DeSantis becomes the Nominee he will win hands down. It will be an 2008 Obama/McCain Redux with Roles reversed and Biden be the 80+ old Gaga Figure and DeSantis the competent young, energetic sub 50-year old Challenger.

Age is a massive Problem for Both, Trump and Biden. Both have Dementia.

I’m out of my mind…really? Which one or any of those seven points is not true, and which ones if any can be replicated in 2024?

Also, What gives you the impression DeSantis is going to win nationally “hands down”? Yes his win was sizeable here but it’s hardly reflective of the rest of the country as we saw on Nov 8, which by all accounts should have been a red wave not just Florida. While trump may not be 100% at fault at all the losses (Gop est are also good at losing), you can’t honestly say his brand (or a derivative of MAGA) isn’t DOA in a general election.

Citation needed for both to be fair. The age issue is a fair point, but let’s not spread conspiracy theories.

You are wrong. The GOP not having a Red Wave is entirely because of DONALD JOHN TRUMP. He picked these Candidates to run. He inserted himself into the 2022 Campaign at absolutely the wrong time with these massive Rallys.
Jane Timken or Matt Dolan would have beaten Tim Ryan by a comfortable double digit margin.
Look, I don't like McConnell but he is right: Candidate Quality matters. Mastriano dragged down the entire GOP Ticket in PA. Republicans did not win a single Dem-held House Seat in PA all because of Mastriano and Trump.
Same with Tudor Dixon in Michigan.

Well, his pal JD Vance won, so there's that W. but yeah you're right, Trump is a drag. Sucks to be a republican right now bc they can't shake him like a bad cold.

Vance clearly underperformed though

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Let me correct the record

2016 really thinks that the reason why Rs underperforming was due to bad candidates how about Rs not getting 240 seats and only getting 220 how about LAXALT, Masters, Lake, Michels and Walker losing it has to do with unemployment is at 4.2 percent not 10% Rs won 241seats in 2010 because unemployment was 10% not 4.2% an incumbent Prez never loses with low unemployment Trump lost because unemployment was 9% but he clearly overperforning because if wasn't any inflation until 2021 when wages went up to 15 from 10 but inflation had to do with Ds losing red states that's why Ryan, Beasley lost

McCain lost in 2008 because unemployment was 7.5%, if unemployment was low without inflation in 2020 before the Insurrection Trump would of Lost again DeSantis hasn't been scrutinized in a Natl campaign and if he gets in he will face nothing like what Gillum and Crist did he will face an onslaught from Biden or Trump

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not saying DeSantis can't win what I am saying let's wait til primaries begin, everyone knows that Trump is trying to get off on his crimes either from a pardon or him being Prez this will be flushed out if and when DeSantis does become the nominee, cutting taxes, Surfside and Hurricane Ian is good but how does it help 30/100 M minorities in poverty he said he is against Student loan Discharge and he was wealthy to become an Ivy League Lawyer

That's why outside of FL he polls so low because he hasn't done much for America outside of FL he is stuck in Emerson poll43/39% not 60/40 he won by for a reason

[Agonized-Statism]

He's not gonna be Prez

Pack it up gents, the KING has spoken

[TodayJunior]

He's not gonna be Prez

Pack it up gents, the KING has spoken

The 303 map! Hah

[Builder Refused]

I mean first off, anyone saying dementia is a disadvantage hasn't seen the house leadership.
Second to compare it to the recent Democratic primaries, it either goes like 2016 or 2020.
If the former, DeSantis is more likely to win, because he'll have manufactured consent, a huge amount of funding (though these two are doubtful compared to Clinton), a two-person field, electability, and better favorability than Clinton.
If it's more the latter, that means Trump can triangulate, slayyy queen, and once again win Big Brother, winning most of the early primaries with pluralities. Of course, this is all assuming that DeSantis even runs