Is Miami-Dade the next major Republican urban county?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Back in the Bush era Republicans used to win a good chunk of the 10 most populous counties.
These were Harris, Maricopa, San Diego, Orange, Dallas, and Riverside.
In the Trump era, all of these were washed blue with the largest county he won in 2020 being Suffolk NY, which is the 25th largest in the country.

However, it seems they might be picking up Miami-Dade the 7th largest county in the country.

Rubio won it by 9 and DeSantis by 11. Biden would obviously win Broward, and I think he would take Palm Beach as well (even though DeSantis won it by 3). However, even if the 2024 election holds Florida to single digits, Dade could very well go to the Republicans. However, in the future could Miami-Dade become the next red urban county. The issue for Dems is the demographics are just not on their side there, the county is almost 70% Hispanic which are the reddest population of that demographic country. Additionally, Dade lacks an affluent white suburban population compared to those other former red counties.

I think what makes Miami-Dade even more interesting is that it could be the only main urban county thats red, while it's suburban counties (Broward and Palm Beach) are blue.

[Skill and Chance]

Yes.  Florida is basically experiencing the R demographic apocalypse now.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If the black population continues to decline (which is what's currently happening), there's a good chance it could become outright R leaning on a federal level even if Cubans don't shift a ton further right.

There seems to be something specific about Florida, cause you also have Tampa which is a large metro that nets votes for the GOP, even if Hillsboro County tends to lean D.

[It’s so Joever]

Miami Dade is proof that Goebbels was not just a one time occurrence.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Orange and Riverside aren’t really urban counties . They are just major suburban ones

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Biden probably would have won Suffolk County, New York if the state had competent election officials who were able to make sure every vote got counted. Give that to Biden, and the most populated Trump 2020 County becomes Collin County, TX.

[Tekken_Guy]

Biden probably would have won Suffolk County, New York if the state had competent election officials who were able to make sure every vote got counted. Give that to Biden, and the most populated Trump 2020 County becomes Collin County, TX.

If that was the case and there was a D undercount Brindisi might have actually won his race.

[ottermax]

Interestingly Miami-Dade is simply replicating the right-wing trends of Latin America where most urban areas are quite conservative or right-leaning. So in that context Miami just fits the pattern just from a different cultural context.

[Adam Griffin]

Orange and Riverside aren’t really urban counties . They are just major suburban ones

Certainly not urban, but far more densely populated than its geographic size suggests.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::2531b12e-5a11-4778-93ea-94f924a4730c

90% of voters live in the red; another 5% in the blue; the remaining 5% in the green. Red and blue areas voted almost identical in 2020 (within 0.3 points of one another; a combined total of 9 points), while the green rural area voted for Trump by almost 6 points.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Interestingly Miami-Dade is simply replicating the right-wing trends of Latin America where most urban areas are quite conservative or right-leaning. So in that context Miami just fits the pattern just from a different cultural context.

Good point.

[Suburbia]

Biden probably would have won Suffolk County, New York if the state had competent election officials who were able to make sure every vote got counted. Give that to Biden, and the most populated Trump 2020 County becomes Collin County, TX.