By Aaron Blake
Vulnerable Sens. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.), Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Mary Landrieu (D-La.) spent much of the 110th Congress’s first month burnishing their centrist credentials, while other 2008 targets largely have stuck by their parties thus far, according to a review of Senate roll call votes by The Hill.
Coleman and Collins capped off a month of bucking their party by voting to move forward with debate on legislation critical of President Bush’s proposed troop increase in Iraq. Sens. Gordon Smith (R-Ore.) and John Sununu (R-N.H.), meanwhile, are drawing heat for standing with their party on the vote.
Coleman and Collins were the only two Republicans to vote for cloture, and they also teamed up on three other close roll call votes. The two voted with Democrats on amendments to consider Indian tribes as corporations for political-giving purposes and to ban family from campaign and political action committees, as well as on cloture to increase the federal minimum wage.
On the other side of the aisle, Landrieu, widely considered the most vulnerable Democratic senator, voted with Republicans on those amendments and two others, to the ethics bill. One of the amendments allowed for pre-approved travel paid for by 501(c) 3 groups; the other struck a provision related to grassroots lobbying.
The only Democrat to vote with Republicans more frequently was Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.), regarded as the most centrist Democrat in the Senate. For Republicans, only Collins’s Maine colleague, Sen. Olympia Snowe (R), approached Coleman’s and Collins’s independent streaks.
Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report said the departure of Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.) from the chamber has left a void waiting to be filled at the left reaches of the Republican Party, and Collins and Snowe are the most likely candidates to fill it. Coleman and Landrieu, she said, have gradually built on their centrist credentials in recent months.
“They’re up for reelection; they’re not going to take one for the team right now,” Duffy said.
Other vulnerable Republicans largely have voted the party line in 2007. Smith and Sununu joined with Democrats a few times during the ethics bill debate, but both are weathering criticism for not voting for cloture on the Iraq debate.
Liberal activist group MoveOn.org has spent $140,000 on ad buys nationwide and locally in Oregon and New Hampshire criticizing Smith, Sununu and others for their votes, and Democrats smell blood.
Smith has been a focal point in the Iraq war discourse since his impassioned post-election speech against how the war is being waged, and he opposes the troop increase.
Priding himself as an independent Republican, he broke away from his party at several points on the ethics debate. But Iraq remains at the forefront, and Democrats see potential fodder in his vote against cloture.
At the same time, explaining the vote to voters poses a challenge for Democrats, and if the resolutions do get to a vote, Smith likely will weigh in more clearly. On Wednesday, he was one of seven senators, including Coleman and Collins, to sign a letter pledging to bring Sen. John Warner’s (R-Va.) anti-increase resolution to a vote — a move the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) labeled “hypocrisy.”
“Voters will do addition and subtraction; they won’t do algebra. And cloture votes are algebra,” a West Coast Democratic consultant, Jim Ross, said. “You have to say, ‘This guy opposed the bill,’ and make him defend his action.”
Smith spokesman R.C. Hammond said the MoveOn ads deceive voters because Smith wanted to vote on all of the Iraq resolutions.
“Sen. Smith opposes the troop surge, and he’s helped draft the consensus Warner resolution,” Hammond said. “Oregonians know who’s against the troop surge, and they know that the advertising is misleading.”
Sununu, who along with Snowe and Collins is of a waning breed as a Northeastern Republican, voted with Democrats even less frequently than Smith. Formerly red New Hampshire experienced perhaps the largest Democratic swing in November, seeing about a quarter of its state legislature flip and its two Republican House members fall.
Sununu has not gone as far as others to separate himself from Iraq and did not sign the letter on Warner’s resolution.
A political science professor at Manchester, N.H.’s Saint Anselm College, Dante Scala, said Sununu needs to work on billing himself as New Hampshire’s senator rather than the Republicans’ senator — “what [Sen.] Judd Gregg (R-N.H.) does so well” — by finding non-GOP issues with which to identify himself.
“He’s not going to become [Sen.] Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) or something,” Scala said, referring to the most ardently anti-Iraq GOP senator. “I don’t think anybody would buy that.”
The DSCC also attacked Sununu Wednesday, charging him with evasiveness on Iraq: “Sununu may try to run from his blind support for the war in Iraq, but he won’t be able to flee voters next election,” DSCC spokeswoman Deirdre Murphy said.
Sununu has avoided speaking on the issue of late and his office did not return requests for comment.
Red-state Democrats who could face strong challenges in 2008, such as Sens. Max Baucus (D-Mont.) and Mark Pryor (D-Ark.), largely stuck with their party. Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) voted with Republicans on some amendments to the ethics bill.
Warner, who is up in 2008, voted with the Democrats on cloture for the minimum-wage bill.
Sam Youngman contributed to this report.
http://www.hillnews.com/thehill/export/TheHill/News/Campaign/020907_vulnerable.html
