Chalking all of this up to COVID restrictions is a bit much. It seems more like that cost of living crisis that took center stage in people's minds and realities at the end of 2021 and greatly accelerated this year has had a far greater impact on recent elections than residual bitterness over restrictions from over a year ago.
Yeah, and I don't buy the anti-incumbency thing that much either. In the US, the GOP's much touted "red wave" failed to materialize, at least in part due to voters being genuinely concerned about their authoritarian tendencies.
In popular terms, it materialised. Democrats got more favourable voter distributions than they usually do for a number of reasons, but in PV terms, this was their worst House result since 2010.
That has to do with dozens more GOP candidates running unopposed, and localized "red waves" in the large states of Florida, New York, and to a lesser extent California. In middle America where we've been told for years right-wing populist sentiment is on the rise, there was if anything a blue wave. Just look at Michigan and Pennsylvania!
I can't verify this at the moment but recall reading here that even if one adjusts for unopposed candidates, the GOP still won the popular vote.
In any case you cannot seriously argue that the worst performance for an out of power party in decades was a "wave," and pointing to the House PV as evidence of that is flawed for a number of reasons including all those I mentioned.
I didn't argue that. I argue it materialised
in popular terms, which are ultimately more democratic than the existing electoral system. If I'd seen that PV ahead of time, I would have assumed the sort of Republican gains often associated with a red wave on here - and I don't think I'm alone in this.
Also you are just factually incorrect: 2014 was significantly more R-leaning in the House PV than this election.
Not sure how I misremembered that.
