An autumn for dictators?
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Author Topic: An autumn for dictators?  (Read 634 times)
Beet
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« on: November 26, 2022, 06:55:37 PM »

It seems just a few years ago, we were talking about a democratic recession and the rise of authoritarianism. But Trump and Bolsonaro lost relection, Russia is losing its war, China's zero covid policy is turning into an ever greater disaster, and protests are rocking Iran. Hell even Imran Khan is out of power. Ive noticed tankies on twitter seem miserable and bitter even more than before. Seems like a bad time to be a populist authoritarian or would be authoritarian.

Is there a renaissance of liberal democratic politics going on?
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PSOL
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« Reply #1 on: November 26, 2022, 07:04:08 PM »

Lula did everything in his power to run one of the worst campaigns in the history of democracy to a loser, ballot f•••ery notwithstanding. It’s nice for the planet’s lungs but not very bright of a future in a few years.

Protests have been rocking Iran since before this regime even began.

The current ruling regime in Pakistan is a lot worse than Khan

Tankies are usually working people experiencing downscale mobility, so that’s a bad sense of the economy.

I won’t even respond to the rest of this nonsense, to think I thought it would be good to hail you before. Terrible, terrible thread.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #2 on: November 26, 2022, 07:25:49 PM »

I still think it's more of an anti-incumbency theme more than anything. And that's for better and worse.

With the very notable exception of France's presidential election (which didn't extend much to the parliamentary elections), Denmark's elections, and the US midterm elections to some extent most international elections, particularly in this post-COVID era has seen incumbent parties be swept out of office, no matter their ideology. And even though it isn't quite exclusive, more often than not it seems like far-right populist parties have been the beneficiaries of that.

So it isn't so cut-and-dry as to say that liberal democracy is resurging against a tide of authoritarianism. It's kind of a push-and-pull of the two still going on, and that may very well continue for the foreseeable future.
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It's Perro Sanxe wot won it
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« Reply #3 on: November 26, 2022, 07:26:56 PM »

I don’t think we can really speak of an autumn for dictators until the dictatorial regimes you mentioned start actually being toppled.

Here in the liberal West, most of the right-wing populist leaders that have been voted out of office recently retain formidable political machines that look very capable of taking power back in the near future, like Netanyahu just did in Israel. You also have some new ones on the rise like Meloni, who is barely getting started.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #4 on: November 26, 2022, 08:16:44 PM »

Too soon for a “autumn” but a lot of these authoritarian movements got knocked down a peg
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« Reply #5 on: November 26, 2022, 08:18:41 PM »

Lula did everything in his power to run one of the worst campaigns in the history of democracy to a loser, ballot f•••ery notwithstanding. It’s nice for the planet’s lungs but not very bright of a future in a few years.

Protests have been rocking Iran since before this regime even began.

The current ruling regime in Pakistan is a lot worse than Khan

Tankies are usually working people experiencing downscale mobility, so that’s a bad sense of the economy.

I won’t even respond to the rest of this nonsense, to think I thought it would be good to hail you before. Terrible, terrible thread.

lmao.
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dead0man
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« Reply #6 on: November 26, 2022, 08:44:22 PM »

tankies can act more miserable and bitter?
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theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #7 on: November 26, 2022, 09:45:02 PM »

tankies can act more miserable and bitter?

I saw one saying the Axis was the anti-imperialist side in WWII until the Soviets joined and that the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact was a good idea. This was earlier in the year when it was clear the west was united around Ukraine so they were mad.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #8 on: November 27, 2022, 02:57:50 AM »

The tide of authoritarianism has been abated somewhat, but it hasn't exactly receded. And of course, a lot still hangs in the balance in Ukraine, so we shouldn't become complacent. We need to make sure Ukraine wins as a message to all authoritarian states who try to impose their twisted models on others.
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Torrain
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« Reply #9 on: November 27, 2022, 06:36:17 AM »

I think it's worth noting that a *lot* of governments who were the incumbents during the pandemic have been turfed out (see recent European elections, Brazil, Trump in the US etc).

It's not a universal trend (the Danish coalition, Trudeau's Liberals, Portugal, Macron in France, etc), but I do wonder whether incumbency has been depreciated as an electoral advantage in countries where COVID was badly handled, or the government got roped into a scandal over lockdown rules etc.

During 2020, most governments got a boost in the polls, but restriction fatigue, paired with any COVID scandals (UK's partygate etc) over the succeeding 24 months seems to have pushed the scales in the other direction.

Compare:
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #10 on: November 27, 2022, 07:44:29 AM »

The tide of authoritarianism has been abated somewhat, but it hasn't exactly receded. And of course, a lot still hangs in the balance in Ukraine, so we shouldn't become complacent. We need to make sure Ukraine wins as a message to all authoritarian states who try to impose their twisted models on others.

Yes, this is a good summary.

Something is happening and it is welcome (Meloni was mentioned as a counter-argument upthread, but the fact she feels the need to be pro-Ukraine rather than - as traditional for her political tendency - pro-Russia is maybe in itself a sign that things have changed)

But the last thing we need to do is revert to the complacency of the 1992-2008 period.
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Beet
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« Reply #11 on: November 27, 2022, 08:39:58 AM »

Lula did everything in his power to run one of the worst campaigns in the history of democracy to a loser, ballot f•••ery notwithstanding. It’s nice for the planet’s lungs but not very bright of a future in a few years.

Protests have been rocking Iran since before this regime even began.

The current ruling regime in Pakistan is a lot worse than Khan

Tankies are usually working people experiencing downscale mobility, so that’s a bad sense of the economy.

I won’t even respond to the rest of this nonsense, to think I thought it would be good to hail you before. Terrible, terrible thread.

I am not making a value judgement. In my view, no matter how much I disagree with them, tankies provide a valuable counter narrative to the fact that the MSM has defense contractor money directly and indirectly influencing it, and the overly hawkish tilt that comes out of that. I am just observing patterns.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #12 on: November 27, 2022, 08:44:25 AM »

The anti-incumbency tendency mentioned by other posters here is the one I believe is at play. The COVID-19 pandemic, its responses and the years since revealed that the public desire for authoritarianism was even deeper than I'd feared, and I can only be grateful that (would-be) dictators have mostly proven too incompetent to satisfy that desire so far.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #13 on: November 27, 2022, 09:12:26 AM »

Dictators are on the decline in real terms.

Why? Instagram and Google. We will look back in 100 years and attribute social media as having good and bad social effects.

Social Media is like a mirror that individuals can reaearch tobmake them realise they live in an unjust country. Then when they rise up, they can see the majority of the World support them.

Iran is a perfect example.
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Cassius
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« Reply #14 on: November 27, 2022, 10:00:03 AM »

Western governments just spent two years taking a sledgehammer to the basic building blocks of what it means to have a ‘society’, following the lead of one of the most authoritarian states on the planet. The trend is towards more state control and less personal freedom in every country, regardless of whether it’s an authoritarian state with liberal characteristics or an authoritarian state with authoritarian characteristics.
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #15 on: November 27, 2022, 03:39:14 PM »

Chalking all of this up to COVID restrictions is a bit much. It seems more like that cost of living crisis that took center stage in people's minds and realities at the end of 2021 and greatly accelerated this year has had a far greater impact on recent elections than residual bitterness over restrictions from over a year ago.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #16 on: November 27, 2022, 04:25:03 PM »

I still think it's more of an anti-incumbency theme more than anything. And that's for better and worse.

With the very notable exception of France's presidential election (which didn't extend much to the parliamentary elections), Denmark's elections, and the US midterm elections to some extent most international elections, particularly in this post-COVID era has seen incumbent parties be swept out of office, no matter their ideology. And even though it isn't quite exclusive, more often than not it seems like far-right populist parties have been the beneficiaries of that.

So it isn't so cut-and-dry as to say that liberal democracy is resurging against a tide of authoritarianism. It's kind of a push-and-pull of the two still going on, and that may very well continue for the foreseeable future.
In the exceptions…they are examples of more pro-liberal regimes managing to survive in a terrible incumbent environment against wannabe authoritarians, well Denmark not so much but still.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #17 on: November 27, 2022, 05:59:07 PM »

Lula did everything in his power to run one of the worst campaigns in the history of democracy to a loser, ballot f•••ery notwithstanding. It’s nice for the planet’s lungs but not very bright of a future in a few years.

Protests have been rocking Iran since before this regime even began.

The current ruling regime in Pakistan is a lot worse than Khan

Tankies are usually working people experiencing downscale mobility, so that’s a bad sense of the economy.

I won’t even respond to the rest of this nonsense, to think I thought it would be good to hail you before. Terrible, terrible thread.

LOLOLOLOLOL

No, tankies are terminally online fools. Not "working people" of any kind.

Considering you are one yourself, you should know this better than anybody!
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #18 on: November 27, 2022, 06:04:07 PM »
« Edited: November 27, 2022, 06:10:36 PM by Alben Barkley »

Lula did everything in his power to run one of the worst campaigns in the history of democracy to a loser, ballot f•••ery notwithstanding. It’s nice for the planet’s lungs but not very bright of a future in a few years.

Protests have been rocking Iran since before this regime even began.

The current ruling regime in Pakistan is a lot worse than Khan

Tankies are usually working people experiencing downscale mobility, so that’s a bad sense of the economy.

I won’t even respond to the rest of this nonsense, to think I thought it would be good to hail you before. Terrible, terrible thread.

I am not making a value judgement. In my view, no matter how much I disagree with them, tankies provide a valuable counter narrative to the fact that the MSM has defense contractor money directly and indirectly influencing it, and the overly hawkish tilt that comes out of that. I am just observing patterns.

No, tankies provide nothing of value whatsoever to society. These people unironically believe Joseph Stalin was good. That's really all that needs to be said. You can argue that actual Marxists provide a valuable counter-perspective, but tankies are even fake Marxists. They are just authoritarian drones who are blindly and irrationally anti-US and anti-West.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #19 on: November 27, 2022, 06:07:10 PM »

Chalking all of this up to COVID restrictions is a bit much. It seems more like that cost of living crisis that took center stage in people's minds and realities at the end of 2021 and greatly accelerated this year has had a far greater impact on recent elections than residual bitterness over restrictions from over a year ago.

Yeah, and I don't buy the anti-incumbency thing that much either. In the US, the GOP's much touted "red wave" failed to materialize, at least in part due to voters being genuinely concerned about their authoritarian tendencies. There is actual backlash to authoritarianism going on here, it's not just a product of rebelling against whoever is in power. You saw the same thing in France and elsewhere. People in democracies may not love the leaders in charge, but they'll still take them over authoritarian dictators. And in places where they already have authoritarian dictators, they are rebelling against them more and more. That is a real trend and I don't think one has to be exceptionally idealistic to see it.

Hell, I don't even think COVID was the only reason Trump lost by a longshot, and if it was it was certainly not because he was TOO restrictive! Yet some in this thread would have you believe this is all backlash to COVID restrictions.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #20 on: November 27, 2022, 06:15:19 PM »

Chalking all of this up to COVID restrictions is a bit much. It seems more like that cost of living crisis that took center stage in people's minds and realities at the end of 2021 and greatly accelerated this year has had a far greater impact on recent elections than residual bitterness over restrictions from over a year ago.

Yeah, and I don't buy the anti-incumbency thing that much either. In the US, the GOP's much touted "red wave" failed to materialize, at least in part due to voters being genuinely concerned about their authoritarian tendencies.

In popular terms, it materialised. Democrats got more favourable voter distributions than they usually do for a number of reasons and ran a better slate in the Senate, but in PV terms, this was their worst House result since 2010.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #21 on: November 27, 2022, 06:16:58 PM »
« Edited: November 27, 2022, 06:30:57 PM by Alben Barkley »

Chalking all of this up to COVID restrictions is a bit much. It seems more like that cost of living crisis that took center stage in people's minds and realities at the end of 2021 and greatly accelerated this year has had a far greater impact on recent elections than residual bitterness over restrictions from over a year ago.

Yeah, and I don't buy the anti-incumbency thing that much either. In the US, the GOP's much touted "red wave" failed to materialize, at least in part due to voters being genuinely concerned about their authoritarian tendencies.

In popular terms, it materialised. Democrats got more favourable voter distributions than they usually do for a number of reasons, but in PV terms, this was their worst House result since 2010.

That has to do with dozens more GOP candidates running unopposed, and localized "red waves" in the large states of Florida, New York, and to a lesser extent California. In middle America where we've been told for years right-wing populist sentiment is on the rise, there was if anything a blue wave. Just look at Michigan and Pennsylvania!

In any case you cannot seriously argue that the worst performance for an out of power party in decades was a "wave," and pointing to the House PV as evidence of that is flawed for a number of reasons including all those I mentioned.

Also I'm referring to the exit polls showing that voters genuinely saw democracy as under threat and those voters broke hard for the Democrats. I have little doubt that there would have been an actual red wave had the GOP convicted Trump after 1/6, distanced themselves from authoritarian rhetoric, etc. But as it was, even Lauren Boebert nearly lost in a deep red district! They fatally erred in their strategy by assuming incorrectly that voters don't care about all this "democracy" stuff when they clearly very much do.

Also you are just factually incorrect: 2014 was significantly more R-leaning in the House PV than this election.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #22 on: November 27, 2022, 06:36:16 PM »

Chalking all of this up to COVID restrictions is a bit much. It seems more like that cost of living crisis that took center stage in people's minds and realities at the end of 2021 and greatly accelerated this year has had a far greater impact on recent elections than residual bitterness over restrictions from over a year ago.

Yeah, and I don't buy the anti-incumbency thing that much either. In the US, the GOP's much touted "red wave" failed to materialize, at least in part due to voters being genuinely concerned about their authoritarian tendencies.

In popular terms, it materialised. Democrats got more favourable voter distributions than they usually do for a number of reasons, but in PV terms, this was their worst House result since 2010.

That has to do with dozens more GOP candidates running unopposed, and localized "red waves" in the large states of Florida, New York, and to a lesser extent California. In middle America where we've been told for years right-wing populist sentiment is on the rise, there was if anything a blue wave. Just look at Michigan and Pennsylvania!

I can't verify this at the moment but recall reading here that even if one adjusts for unopposed candidates, the GOP still won the popular vote.

Quote
In any case you cannot seriously argue that the worst performance for an out of power party in decades was a "wave," and pointing to the House PV as evidence of that is flawed for a number of reasons including all those I mentioned.

I didn't argue that. I argue it materialised in popular terms, which are ultimately more democratic than the existing electoral system. If I'd seen that PV ahead of time, I would have assumed the sort of Republican gains often associated with a red wave on here - and I don't think I'm alone in this.

Quote
Also you are just factually incorrect: 2014 was significantly more R-leaning in the House PV than this election.

Not sure how I misremembered that.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #23 on: November 27, 2022, 06:45:36 PM »

I can't verify this at the moment but recall reading here that even if one adjusts for unopposed candidates, the GOP still won the popular vote.

They might have still won it but it would have been extremely narrow. Definitely not a "red wave."

And since the issue at hand here is whether voters are revolting more against dictatorship or incumbency, I think it counts for something WHERE the votes are coming from and WHY voters are casting ballots. If it's in New York with relatively moderate R candidates and little reason to think your rights will be directly threatened regardless of who wins, it's one thing to cast a vote for an R. If you're faced with Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania (a purple state compared to New York's blue, and a Trump 2016 state), on the other hand? Well we saw how resoundingly voters responded to that! We even saw maybe the most infamous election denier of the year, Kari Lake, lose in the hardly deep blue state of Arizona in a race she was "supposed" to win. And again, even Boebert nearly lost. It's clear that authoritarianism still has a steep political cost in democracies, incumbent party or not. That's my main point.
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