Best and worst winning/losing Senate campaigns this cycle?

[Xing]

As an example, here are the campaigns that won and lost which I think were the best/worst in the previous three cycles:

2016
Best winning campaign: Ron Johnson (ugh)
Best losing campaign: Jason Kander
Worst winning campaign: Roy Blunt
Worst losing campaign: Ted Strickland

2018
Best winning campaign: Rick Scott
Best losing campaign: Beto O’Rourke
Worst winning campaign: Debbie Stabenow
Worst losing campaign: Bill Nelson

2020
Best winning campaign: Raphael Warnock
Best losing campaign: John James
Worst winning campaign: Lindsey Graham
Worst losing campaign: Cal Cunningham

Now, for this year:

Best winning campaign: John Fetterman
Best losing campaign: Tim Ryan
Worst winning campaign: JD Vance
Worst losing campaign: Mehmet Oz

I can see a case to be made for either AZ candidate instead of the PA candidates. Anyway, what would your picks be?

[Zenobiyl]

NY for worst winning campaign. Tim Ryan was a credible challenger who ran a great race, and it’s understandable that he would do as well as he did. Joe Pinion was a total joke with no money, and had no right getting to 43% in solid blue New York.

[soundchaser]

The only thing I’d change on OP’s list is Masters being Worst Losing Campaign. Kelly had no business winning by as much as he did.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Others:

Best winning:

Marco Rubio basically only ran 2-3 points behind a Presidential frontrunner, except instead of facing the corpse of Charlie Crist he was facing one of the most celebrated D recruits of the entire cycle.

Michael Bennet ran against a "moderate" Republican in a year where Ds faced serious prospects of losing college educated suburban voters and he got basically the same margin Joe Biden did two years earlier (despite an R+4 shift in the national environment).

Kinda also feel like we need to credit Ron Johnson for managing to win enough ticket splitters to pull out a win even while Evers was winning, particularly against another high-quality recruit in a state Ds had been targeting and pouring resources into since December 2016.

Worst winning:

Chuck Grassley turned in his worst performance in decades and lost ground in every urban center in one of the most rapidly red-shifting states in the country.

Worst losing:

Bolduc... lmao.

[Vosem]

Best winning: Mark Kelly (D-AZ)
Best losing: Tim Ryan (D-OH)
Worst winning: Chuck Schumer (D-NY)
Worst losing: Mehmet Oz (R-PA)

[Pink Panther]

Best Winning Campaign - Mark Kelly
You definitely can make an argument for Warnock(he's probably winning the runoff, let's be real here), Fetterman, and Masto, but I decided to pick Kelly. He was able to simultaneously portray himself as a Centrist who criticized Biden at times, especially on the Border, while embracing his party label and turning out the base. Along with his background and his opponent essentially being Skeletor with hair(along with GOP funding being inconsistent), he was able to win by 5%, considerably overpreforming Biden and Hobbs in the process.

Best Losing Campaign - Tim Ryan
We don't really have anyone better, so I'm going with Ryan. He campaigned on populist, kitchen table issues for the most part, and didn't really have that many major flaws. Yeah, Vance ran a bad campaign as well, but considering the right wing lurch of OH in recent years, as well as directing vital GOP funding over here and helping Dem House candidates, I'd say it was as successful as it could be. Ryan doing worse in Mahoning than Biden is a little bit embarrassing, however.

Worst Winning Campaign - John Hoeven
This may come as a shock, especially when both Schumer, Grassley, and Vance are options, but let me explain. With the exception of his first statewide race in 2000, Hoeven had cracked 70%, or atleast come close to it. This year, he only cracked 57%. Not only is that worse than Trump, that isn't much better than Cramer's vote share four years ago. From my understanding, Hoeven barely campaigned and there was a strong Independent challenge, but this race shouldn't have been as close as it was.

Worst Losing Campaign - Mehmet Oz
There are so many options I can pick from, but I have to go with the Doctor in on this one. He came off as an unlikable sleezeball who failed to counteract Fetterman's attacks reinforcing that image. Oz also seemed like an uncompassionate dick(which he is) who seemed like he could coast his way to a Senate seat. As a result, Oz underperformed Trump with the exception of three, barely, in every single county in Pennsylvania. Note that this was also against a guy who isn't that charismatic, could be a portrayed as a political opportunist and slouch, and oh yeah, a recovering stroke victim. Dem victories in key swing seats in the House could so probably be somewhat attributed to Oz's terrible performance all around.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Best losing campaign is Joe Pinion. Much more impressive than Tim Ryan. Only shaved Vance’s margin to 6 from Trump’s 8.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

As an example, here are the campaigns that won and lost which I think were the best/worst in the previous three cycles:

2016
Best winning campaign: Ron Johnson (ugh)
Best losing campaign: Jason Kander
Worst winning campaign: Roy Blunt
Worst losing campaign: Ted Strickland

2018
Best winning campaign: Rick Scott
Best losing campaign: Beto O’Rourke
Worst winning campaign: Debbie Stabenow
Worst losing campaign: Bill Nelson

2020
Best winning campaign: Raphael Warnock
Best losing campaign: John James
Worst winning campaign: Lindsey Graham
Worst losing campaign: Cal Cunningham

Now, for this year:

Best winning campaign: John Fetterman
Best losing campaign: Tim Ryan
Worst winning campaign: JD Vance
Worst losing campaign: Mehmet Oz

I can see a case to be made for either AZ candidate instead of the PA candidates. Anyway, what would your picks be?

How was Lindsey Graham the worst winning campaign in 2020? His opponent made it the most expensive senate race of the cycle (before GA runoffs) and polling had it relatively tight for SC. In the end though Graham still won by double digits. If anything Harrison underperformed expectations.

Worst winning campaign of the 2020 cycle imo should go to Ben Ray Luján for winning by just 6 points in what was often considered a safe D race.

[Ferguson97]

Best winning: Mark Kelly (D-AZ)
Best losing: Tim Ryan (D-OH)
Worst winning: Ron Johnson (R-WI)
Worst losing: Blake Masters (R-AZ)

[Xing]

As an example, here are the campaigns that won and lost which I think were the best/worst in the previous three cycles:

2016
Best winning campaign: Ron Johnson (ugh)
Best losing campaign: Jason Kander
Worst winning campaign: Roy Blunt
Worst losing campaign: Ted Strickland

2018
Best winning campaign: Rick Scott
Best losing campaign: Beto O’Rourke
Worst winning campaign: Debbie Stabenow
Worst losing campaign: Bill Nelson

2020
Best winning campaign: Raphael Warnock
Best losing campaign: John James
Worst winning campaign: Lindsey Graham
Worst losing campaign: Cal Cunningham

Now, for this year:

Best winning campaign: John Fetterman
Best losing campaign: Tim Ryan
Worst winning campaign: JD Vance
Worst losing campaign: Mehmet Oz

I can see a case to be made for either AZ candidate instead of the PA candidates. Anyway, what would your picks be?

How was Lindsey Graham the worst winning campaign in 2020? His opponent made it the most expensive senate race of the cycle (before GA runoffs) and polling had it relatively tight for SC. In the end though Graham still won by double digits. If anything Harrison underperformed expectations.

Worst winning campaign of the 2020 cycle imo should go to Ben Ray Luján for winning by just 6 points in what was often considered a safe D race.

He mostly sleepwalked through the campaign, or went on Fox, and was entirely bailed out by the partisanship of the state, underperforming Trump as an incumbent against an opponent who was unknown beforehand. Yes, polling underestimated him, but that’s hardly the best barometer.

[Zenobiyl]

Best losing campaign is Joe Pinion. Much more impressive than Tim Ryan. Only shaved Vance’s margin to 6 from Trump’s 8.

Frankly, I feel like much of that was Zeldin dragging him up rather than Joe being an exceptional candidate in his own right

[Mr. Smith]

2018

Best Winning: Jon Tester (D-MT):  Maryland Matt! That says pretty much all of it, and he didn't kowtow to Kavanaugh either while doing it.

Best Losing: Beto O'Rourke (D-TX): Everyone knows this one.

Worst Winning: Dianne Feinstein (D-CA): Literally lost the official endorsement to a very lackluster and flawed candidate and couldn't even hold the conservative or moderate areas, which should've been a gimme. She got bailed out  by name rec in the liberal areas, but she really ought to have taken all 58 by default with no GOP to speak of.

Worst Losing: Bill Nelson (D-FL): Everyone knows this one

2020

Best Winning: Jon Ossoff (D-GA): Really learned his lessons from 2017 and focused on the bread-and-butter, especially with the COVID Relief. It was a narrow win, but iirc Perdue was loaded.

Best Losing: Mark Ronchetti (R-NM): Overperformed like crazy by simply being fairly likable. All these Democrats whowere supposed to do great didn't get as close as he did.

Worst Winning: Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS): Completely pathetic, and even as an incumbent, she still underperformed. Rematches are supposed to be favorable, but the difference was barely there, if at all. I thought about her for worst of 2018 too, but Nelson taking defeat from the jaws of victory is just too much.  Thought of her for 2018, but Feinstein was even worse.

Worst Losing: Sara Gideon (D-ME): The only Democrat that couldn't win in a state Biden won easily, and she lost handily because she got tagged for a carpetbagging and did nothing to counter it. Terry Hayes had more substance.

CURRENT

Best Winning: Marco Rubio (R-FL): He was part of the masterful work of the FL GOP

Best Losing: Cheri Beasely (D-NC):  She'd be Senator now if she'd just run against Tillis

Worst Winning: Chuck Grassley (R-IA) Severe underperformance and his closest result by far, and Franken was very flawed.   

Worst Losing: Herschel Walker (R-GA)  So much baggage.

CYCLICAL OVERALL


Best Winner: Jon Tester

Best Loser: Beto O'Rourke

Worst Winner: Cindy Hyde-Smith '20

Worst Loser: Bill Nelson/Herschel Walker

[Tekken_Guy]

2018

Best Winning: Jon Tester (D-MT):  Maryland Matt! That says pretty much all of it, and he didn't kowtow to Kavanaugh either while doing it.

Best Losing: Beto O'Rourke (D-TX): Everyone knows this one.

Worst Winning: Dianne Feinstein (D-CA): Literally lost the official endorsement to a very lackluster and flawed candidate and couldn't even hold the conservative or moderate areas, which should've been a gimme. She got bailed out  by name rec in the liberal areas, but she really ought to have taken all 58 by default with no GOP to speak of.

Worst Losing: Bill Nelson (D-FL): Everyone knows this one

2020

Best Winning: Jon Ossoff (D-GA): Really learned his lessons from 2017 and focused on the bread-and-butter, especially with the COVID Relief. It was a narrow win, but iirc Perdue was loaded.

Best Losing: Mark Ronchetti (R-NM): Overperformed like crazy by simply being fairly likable. All these Democrats whowere supposed to do great didn't get as close as he did.

Worst Winning: Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS): Completely pathetic, and even as an incumbent, she still underperformed. Rematches are supposed to be favorable, but the difference was barely there, if at all. I thought about her for worst of 2018 too, but Nelson taking defeat from the jaws of victory is just too much.

Worst Losing: Sara Gideon (D-ME): The only Democrat that couldn't win in a state Biden won easily, and she lost handily because she got tagged for a carpetbagging and did nothing to counter it. Terry Hayes had more substance.

CURRENT

Best Winning: Marco Rubio (R-FL): He was part of the masterful work of the FL GOP

Best Losing: Cheri Beasely (D-NC):  She'd be Senator now if she'd just run against Tillis

Worst Winning: Chuck Grassley (R-IA)/Herschel Walker (R-GA)*  Severe underperformance and his closest result by far, and Franken was very flawed.   Herschel Walker is even worse with all his baggage, propelled over only because of Raff and Kemp's dual popularity. Since he failed to outright lose and the run-off isn't set in stone yet, I'll include him here.

Worst Losing: Don Bolduc (R-NH)/Herschel Walker (R-GA)*   Waffling on the election denials and a bunch of other missteps, all while Sununu easily jumped over. Bolduc will easily be replaced by Herschel Walker if Dec. 6th goes as most here expect.



CYCLICAL OVERALL


Best Winner: Jon Tester

Best Loser: Beto O'Rourke

Worst Winner: Cindy Hyde-Smith '20

Worst Loser: Bill Nelson/Herschel Walker

If Herschel Walker wins the runoff he is absolutely out of the running for "Worst Winner" given he won with all the fundamentals going against him. Raphael Warnock would have to run a Bill Nelson 2.0 campaign to lose the race.

[Pericles]

Everyone is mentioning Oz, but Blake Masters underperformed by even more and humiliated himself in a prime opportunity for Republicans, he should be considered too.

[Schiff for Senate]

To all the people praising Pinion or blaming Schumer, you really have the governor race to thank/blame - it was Zeldin who ran such a great campaign that, forget 13 points, he lost by a mere 5 points; and it was Hochul who was so pathetic that she won by just 5 points as a Democrat in New York. I get that this is asking for senate races and not governor races, but IMO any credit for the NY results goes to Zeldin and any blame goes to Hochul. It was the governor race that led to Democrats underperforming congressionally in NY.

[ProgressiveModerate]

To all the people praising Pinion or blaming Schumer, you really have the governor race to thank/blame - it was Zeldin who ran such a great campaign that, forget 13 points, he lost by a mere 5 points; and it was Hochul who was so pathetic that she won by just 5 points as a Democrat in New York. I get that this is asking for senate races and not governor races, but IMO any credit for the NY results goes to Zeldin and any blame goes to Hochul. It was the governor race that led to Democrats underperforming congressionally in NY.

Turnout dynamics by party were extremely favorable to Rs in NY this cycle. Schumer actually put up a respectable performance considering the electorate he was dealing with, the same way in 2018, John James put up a respectable performance despite ultimately losing by like 6%.

This is why I think D'Esposito will be an under-dog come 2024 unless he's like really really moderate. It seems like turnout in the heavily Black/Hispanic areas of Hampstead crashed in a way it won't in 2024 just by nature of being a Pres year. Zeldin also won NY-04 so it's not like his performance on it's own was anything particularly impressive.

However, the GOP having incumbents in a bunch of these swing districts that would be competitive normally in a Pres year is an assist to them.

[Tekken_Guy]

To all the people praising Pinion or blaming Schumer, you really have the governor race to thank/blame - it was Zeldin who ran such a great campaign that, forget 13 points, he lost by a mere 5 points; and it was Hochul who was so pathetic that she won by just 5 points as a Democrat in New York. I get that this is asking for senate races and not governor races, but IMO any credit for the NY results goes to Zeldin and any blame goes to Hochul. It was the governor race that led to Democrats underperforming congressionally in NY.

Turnout dynamics by party were extremely favorable to Rs in NY this cycle. Schumer actually put up a respectable performance considering the electorate he was dealing with, the same way in 2018, John James put up a respectable performance despite ultimately losing by like 6%.

This is why I think D'Esposito will be an under-dog come 2024 unless he's like really really moderate. It seems like turnout in the heavily Black/Hispanic areas of Hampstead crashed in a way it won't in 2024 just by nature of being a Pres year. Zeldin also won NY-04 so it's not like his performance on it's own was anything particularly impressive.

However, the GOP having incumbents in a bunch of these swing districts that would be competitive normally in a Pres year is an assist to them.

Most of these newly elected NY Republicans feel like they were fluke winners who are set to go the way of Max Rose and Anthony Brindisi in two years' time.

[politicallefty]

I think Jon Ossoff was probably the Best Winning in 2020. He beat an incumbent statewide a couple years after a subpar performance in a special House election in 2017 when Democrats were supposedly enraged and fired up. I personally didn't object to his political obituary after that, but he certainly proved me wrong as the campaign progressed. On the other hand, while I certainly don't want to take anything away from Warnock's win, he was facing an untested candidate who boasted she was more conservative than Atilla the Hun.

As for this year:

Best Winning: John Fetterman (D-PA) & Mark Kelly (D-AZ)
Best Losing: Cheri Beasley (D-NC)
Worst Winning: JD Vance (R-OH) & Chuck Schumer (D-NY)
Worst Losing: Blake Masters (R-AZ)

I can't give Chuck Schumer any credit for his own race when it's his worst since his first election in 1998. He should've had no problem breaking 60%.

Going back, I'd probably list it like this:

2020
Best Winning: Jon Ossoff (D-GA)
Best Losing: Mark Ronchetti (R-NM)
Worst Winning: Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS)
Worst Losing: Sara Gideon (D-ME) & Cal Cunningham (R-NC)

2018
Best Winning: Rick Scott (R-FL) & Jon Tester (D-MT)
Best Losing: Beto O'Rourke (D-TX)
Worst Winning: Debbie Stabenow (D-MI)
Worst Losing: Bill Nelson (R-FL)

2016
Best Winning: Ron Johnson (R-WI)
Best Losing: Jason Kander (D-MO)
Worst Winning: Roy Blunt (R-MO)
Worst Losing: Ted Strickland (D-OH)

2014
Best Winning: Gary Peters (D-MI) & Joni Ernst (R-IA)
Best Losing: Kay Hagan (D-NC)
Worst Winning: Mark Warner (D-VA)
Worst Losing: Mark Udall (D-CO) & Bruce Braley (D-IA)

2012
Best Winning: Claire McCaskill (D-MO)
Best Losing: Scott Brown (R-MA) (??) (Relative to the margins, but the 2012 map was extremely lopsided.)
Worst Winning: N/A (see above)
Worst Losing: Richard Mourdock (R-IN) & Todd Akin (R-MO)

2010
Best Winning: Harry Reid (D-NV) & Mark Kirk (R-IL)
Best Losing: Joe Sestak (D-PA)
Worst Winning: N/A (not much to see, tbh)
Worst Losing: Sharron Angle (R-NV), Christine O'Donnell (R-DE), & Russ Feingold (D-WI)

2008
Best Winning: Kay Hagan (D-NC)
Best Losing: Bruce Lunsford (D-KY) (& maybe Gordon Smith (R-OR))
Worst Winning: Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
Worst Losing: Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) & Steve Pearce (R-NM)

2006
Best Winning: Sherrod Brown (D-OH)
Best Losing: Harold Ford (D-TN)
Worst Winning: N/A (not much to see, tbh)
Worst Losing: George Allen (R-VA) & Mike DeWine (R-OH) (Rick Santorum was written off very early.)

I might've got carried away on this.

[wbrocks67]

The only thing I’d change on OP’s list is Masters being Worst Losing Campaign. Kelly had no business winning by as much as he did.

I disagree with this. Kelly proved himself to be a strong performer in 2020, beating an incumbent and outperforming Biden by over 2%. Him winning by 5% this year isn't that big of a surprise, even against a crappy candidate.

[wbrocks67]

Best losing campaign is Joe Pinion. Much more impressive than Tim Ryan. Only shaved Vance’s margin to 6 from Trump’s 8.

I agree with Pinion, but I don't see how Ryan isn't impressive. Yes, it was only 2% above Biden's margin but did you see the rest of the statewide slate in Ohio? All of the GOP candidates won by at least like 15%, not to mention DeWine's 20+ blowout. The fact that Ryan was able to keep Vance to only 6% compared to the rest of the slate is a testament to Ryan (and also how bad Vance was) .. in a Biden midterm mind you

[Roblox]

2016
Best winning: Rob Portman
Best losing: Jason Kander
Worst winning: Roy Blunt
Worst losing: Ted Strickland

2018
Best winning: Jon Tester (Rick Scott and Joe Manchin are also strong candidates for this)
Best losing: Beto
Worst winning: Debbie Stabenow
Worst losing: Bill Nelson

2020
Best winning: Raphael Warnock
Best losing: Mike Espy
Worst winning: Cindy Hyde Smith
Worst losing: Sara Gideon

2022
Best winning: John Fetterman
Best losing: Tim Ryan
Worst winning: JD Vance
Worst losing: Blake Masters

Notes
-Hyde Smith underperforming Trump by 6 points in a state as racially polarized as Mississippi, in a year when ticket splitting was at a minimum nationwide, reflects a pretty extraordinary underperformance on her part, and an excellent performance from Espy. He got within single digits in a presidential year in Mississippi!
-While Dr. Oz was of course a terrible candidate, Fetterman's campaign did a remarkable job defining him early on in a way Oz never recovered from, as well as rebutting Oz's attacks. Also one of the most successful recent examples of a candidate communicating the exact personal image of themselves they want to get across, even with the challenges of recovery from a stroke.
-Blake Masters put out some of the most creepy and off-putting ads....Ever? Why was he standing around in the middle of the desert in so many of them? He was simply an incredibly unappealing person whose style and campaign focus naturally put off anyone who isn't a basement dweller with a racist election twitter account.

[Tekken_Guy]

2016
Best winning: Portman
Best losing: Kander
Worst winning: Blunt
Worst losing: Feingold

2018
Best winning: Scott
Best losing: O'Rourke
Worst winning: Stabenow
Worst losing: Nelson

2020:

Best winning: Ossoff & Warnock
Best losing: Ronchetti
Worst winning: Hyde-Smith
Worst losing: Gideon

2022:

Best winning: Kelly
Best losing: Ryan
Worst winning: Vance
Worst losing: Oz

[Hope For A New Era]

Best losing campaign is Joe Pinion. Much more impressive than Tim Ryan. Only shaved Vance’s margin to 6 from Trump’s 8.

I agree with Pinion, but I don't see how Ryan isn't impressive. Yes, it was only 2% above Biden's margin but did you see the rest of the statewide slate in Ohio? All of the GOP candidates won by at least like 15%, not to mention DeWine's 20+ blowout. The fact that Ryan was able to keep Vance to only 6% compared to the rest of the slate is a testament to Ryan (and also how bad Vance was) .. in a Biden midterm mind you

Also, the national environment was 6 points to the right of 2020, so that was actually an 8-point improvement over Biden.

In performance relative to the nation, Ryan was only 3 points behind Brown 2018, and Brown wasn't up against R landslides on the rest of the ticket the way Ryan was (remember that DeWine 2018 only won by 3).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NY for worst winning campaign. Tim Ryan was a credible challenger who ran a great race, and it’s understandable that he would do as well as he did. Joe Pinion was a total joke with no money, and had no right getting to 43% in solid blue New York.

LoL he ran in Midterm and we won KS and AK red states are much bluer than TX and FL and IA due to DeSantis and Abbott that's why AZ and GA are blue and Brown stands a chance in 24.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Competitive Races and Seats That Changed Hands Only

2016:
Best Winning: Pat Toomey
Worst Winning: Roy Blunt
Best Losing: Jason Kander
Worst Losing: Mark Kirk

2018:
Best Winning: Jon Tester
Worst Winning: Kevin Cramer
Best Losing: Beto O’Rourke
Worst Losing: Bill Nelson

2020:
Best Winning: Jon Osoff
Worst Winning: Joni Ernst
Best Losing: Theresa Greenfield
Worst Losing: Cal Cunningham

2022:
Best Winning: John Fetterman
Worst Winning: J.D. Vance
Best Losing: Tim Ryan
Worst Losing: Dr. Oz