Political future of Mondaire Jones

[Tekken_Guy]

What is Mondaire Jones’ political future?

[Mr.Phips]

Maybe he runs against Lawler in NY-17?

[Suburbia]

Maybe he runs against Lawler in NY-17?

[coloradocowboi]

Not after trying to win a House seat in Williamsburg lol. Sadly, Jones probably could've held the line this year with a bit more moderate rebranding. WFP reported people in Rockland county badmouthing SPM because he chased Jones out. I think he prolly would've improved on SPM's margin there and narrowly won. Now I guess he'll go become an SEIU lobbyist or something

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Maybe he runs against Lawler in NY-17?

That would be a great way to blow an extremely winnable race.  This isn’t a knock on Jones per se, but he doesn’t seem like a good fit for the district at this point.  I’m sure we can do better regarding candidate recruitment.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Maybe he runs against Lawler in NY-17?

That would be a great way to blow an extremely winnable race.  This isn’t a knock on Jones per se, but he doesn’t seem like a good fit for the district at this point.  I’m sure we can do better regarding candidate recruitment.

He had better ties to Orthodox than Maloney did

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Maybe he runs against Lawler in NY-17?

That would be a great way to blow an extremely winnable race.  This isn’t a knock on Jones per se, but he doesn’t seem like a good fit for the district at this point.  I’m sure we can do better regarding candidate recruitment.

He had better ties to Orthodox than Maloney did

Please cite.  

Beyond which, even if that is true, SPM didn't lose b/c he lacked the necessary Orthodox backing, he lost b/c voters felt Democrats were soft on crime and Republicans pumped ~$6 million into the district in October while Democrats spent roughly ~$500,000 to counter that onslaught.  While SPM was the target of "soft on crime" attacks, Jones would've been even more vulnerable to such attacks.  The biggest driver of the New York Republican wave appears to have been the perception that Democrats couldn't be trusted on law-and-order issues.  Jones probably would've lost by an even larger margin given that he's almost certainly more progressive than SPM on crime-related issues.  And evidently Jones didn't even think he could beat SPM in a primary.    

In hindsight, we were probably gonna lose this seat either way in 2022.  The place where SPM's nonsense screwed us was in NY-20.  If Pat Ryan ran there, I think he would've held it this year and SPM would've hung on in NY-19 meaning that we'd have lost only one Hudson Valley area seat instead of two.  

Moreover, Jones already left the area and tried to carpetbag his way to run in a NYC open seat as a left-wing candidate.  At this point, he's damaged goods.  We can probably do better here in terms of candidate recruitment (and if not, then Lawler will likely win re-election).

[coloradocowboi]

 Jones probably would've lost by an even larger margin given that he's almost certainly more progressive than SPM on crime-related issues.

This is a really uninformed take when turnout in NY tanked, especially compared to other states where progressives won the very kind of races you’re saying they would jeopardize, eg Matt Cartwright, John Fetterman. It’s kind of lazy to just reduce voters into simple binaries. Jones indisputably had better ties to working class Rockland County than SPM. A minute difference in the margin there probably would’ve sealed the deal. And Jones would’ve certainly been more likely to perform better there than SPM, who as I understand it barely even ran a field operation

After carpet bagging, Jones is damaged goods. But it would be a serious mistake to run another snobby elite moderate here. If we can compete with working class voters in Rockland and Putnam counties, Lawler will win again.

As for the crime attacks, I think NY is perfect evidence that we lose when democrats Judas the party by hyping up a crime wave that is more media hype than empirical fact. Eric Adams was the biggest villain in NY this cycle, just like London Breed and Rick Caruso were in California.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

 Jones probably would've lost by an even larger margin given that he's almost certainly more progressive than SPM on crime-related issues.

This is a really uninformed take when turnout in NY tanked, especially compared to other states where progressives won the very kind of races you’re saying they would jeopardize, eg Matt Cartwright, John Fetterman. It’s kind of lazy to just reduce voters into simple binaries. Jones indisputably had better ties to working class Rockland County than SPM. A minute difference in the margin there probably would’ve sealed the deal. And Jones would’ve certainly been more likely to perform better there than SPM, who as I understand it barely even ran a field operation

After carpet bagging, Jones is damaged goods. But it would be a serious mistake to run another snobby elite moderate here. If we can compete with working class voters in Rockland and Putnam counties, Lawler will win again.

As for the crime attacks, I think NY is perfect evidence that we lose when democrats Judas the party by hyping up a crime wave that is more media hype than empirical fact. Eric Adams was the biggest villain in NY this cycle, just like London Breed and Rick Caruso were in California.

- I think NY was one of the few places where the crime fear-mongering was really effective this cycle.  What works in one state isn’t going to necessarily work as well in another state.  

- I think Jones would’ve probably lost by like ~3%.  It’d still be close, in part b/c he’d do better in Rockland than SPM.  However, I think Jones would’ve have gotten even less Orthodox backing and have done worse in Dutchess and Westchester.

- The stuff about SPM having no ground game isn’t true, although he did a crappy job repairing relationships with activist groups that were upset about him forcing Jones out.  That Slate article was pretty clearly a bad-faith hatchet job, despite raising some legit points like how SPM should’ve had some sort of outreach about working on GOTV with the Rockland County Working Families Party.  

- London Breed was irrelevant to the 2022 results, Caruso is functionally a Republican who was irrelevant to competitive races, and Adams was definitely a major villain

- I never said an SPM type is the answer either  

[coloradocowboi]

 Jones probably would've lost by an even larger margin given that he's almost certainly more progressive than SPM on crime-related issues.

This is a really uninformed take when turnout in NY tanked, especially compared to other states where progressives won the very kind of races you’re saying they would jeopardize, eg Matt Cartwright, John Fetterman. It’s kind of lazy to just reduce voters into simple binaries. Jones indisputably had better ties to working class Rockland County than SPM. A minute difference in the margin there probably would’ve sealed the deal. And Jones would’ve certainly been more likely to perform better there than SPM, who as I understand it barely even ran a field operation

After carpet bagging, Jones is damaged goods. But it would be a serious mistake to run another snobby elite moderate here. If we can compete with working class voters in Rockland and Putnam counties, Lawler will win again.

As for the crime attacks, I think NY is perfect evidence that we lose when democrats Judas the party by hyping up a crime wave that is more media hype than empirical fact. Eric Adams was the biggest villain in NY this cycle, just like London Breed and Rick Caruso were in California.

- I think NY was one of the few places where the crime fear-mongering was really effective this cycle.  What works in one state isn’t going to necessarily work as well in another state. 

- I think Jones would’ve probably lost by like ~3%.  It’d still be close, in part b/c he’d do better in Rockland than SPM.  However, I think Jones would’ve have gotten even less Orthodox backing and have done worse in Dutchess and Westchester.

- The stuff about SPM having no ground game isn’t true, although he did a crappy job repairing relationships with activist groups that were upset about him forcing Jones out.  That Intercept article was pretty clearly a bad-faith hatchet job, despite raising some legit points like how SPM should’ve had some sort of outreach about working on GOTV with the Rockland County Working Families Party. 

- London Breed was irrelevant to the 2022 results, Caruso is functionally a Republican who was irrelevant to competitive races, and Adams was definitely a major villain

- I never said an SPM type is the answer either  

It wasn’t just the intercept article. Slate or Salon ran one with similar conclusions, highlighting that Pat Ryan (and in the past Mondaire Jones) ran on environmental issues that ginned up turnout in the region. It’s one thing to spurn DSA, it’s another entirely to treat the Sierra Club or WFP cavalierly

Agree to disagree, but I think Jones would’ve narrowly won. Matt Cartwright provides a perfect model to follow, and I think Jones could’ve followed it. We will never know how well progressives run in swing seats because they get handicapped by the very people who claim they are unelectable. Jamie McLeod Skinner and Kara East man’s first runs come to mind, and unlike Mondaire Jones they weren’t incumbent representatives. I would give it to him by a very narrow margin like Pat Ryan. Democrats do well when their candidates have close ties to local communities

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Maybe he runs against Lawler in NY-17?

This, and he'd probably win.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

 Jones probably would've lost by an even larger margin given that he's almost certainly more progressive than SPM on crime-related issues.

This is a really uninformed take when turnout in NY tanked, especially compared to other states where progressives won the very kind of races you’re saying they would jeopardize, eg Matt Cartwright, John Fetterman. It’s kind of lazy to just reduce voters into simple binaries. Jones indisputably had better ties to working class Rockland County than SPM. A minute difference in the margin there probably would’ve sealed the deal. And Jones would’ve certainly been more likely to perform better there than SPM, who as I understand it barely even ran a field operation

After carpet bagging, Jones is damaged goods. But it would be a serious mistake to run another snobby elite moderate here. If we can compete with working class voters in Rockland and Putnam counties, Lawler will win again.

As for the crime attacks, I think NY is perfect evidence that we lose when democrats Judas the party by hyping up a crime wave that is more media hype than empirical fact. Eric Adams was the biggest villain in NY this cycle, just like London Breed and Rick Caruso were in California.

- I think NY was one of the few places where the crime fear-mongering was really effective this cycle.  What works in one state isn’t going to necessarily work as well in another state.  

- I think Jones would’ve probably lost by like ~3%.  It’d still be close, in part b/c he’d do better in Rockland than SPM.  However, I think Jones would’ve have gotten even less Orthodox backing and have done worse in Dutchess and Westchester.

- The stuff about SPM having no ground game isn’t true, although he did a crappy job repairing relationships with activist groups that were upset about him forcing Jones out.  That Intercept article was pretty clearly a bad-faith hatchet job, despite raising some legit points like how SPM should’ve had some sort of outreach about working on GOTV with the Rockland County Working Families Party.  

- London Breed was irrelevant to the 2022 results, Caruso is functionally a Republican who was irrelevant to competitive races, and Adams was definitely a major villain

- I never said an SPM type is the answer either  

It wasn’t just the intercept article. Slate or Salon ran one with similar conclusions, highlighting that Pat Ryan (and in the past Mondaire Jones) ran on environmental issues that ginned up turnout in the region. It’s one thing to spurn DSA, it’s another entirely to treat the Sierra Club or WFP cavalierly

Agree to disagree, but I think Jones would’ve narrowly won. Matt Cartwright provides a perfect model to follow, and I think Jones could’ve followed it. We will never know how well progressives run in swing seats because they get handicapped by the very people who claim they are unelectable. Jamie McLeod Skinner and Kara East man’s first runs come to mind, and unlike Mondaire Jones they weren’t incumbent representatives. I would give it to him by a very narrow margin like Pat Ryan. Democrats do well when their candidates have close ties to local communities

I meant the Slate article, I was misremembering.  Also, Pat Ryan didn’t win b/c of environmental issues.