Malaysia State Elections: Penang, Selangor, N9, Kelantan, T'ganu, Kedah 2023 and by-elections 2023

[Novelty]

...
Novelty ribbed me last time
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Thanks for the shoutout Mr. Cao.

Awesome job as usual with the summaries.  I wish you had the time for N9 or Penang as well, these are always so fun to read.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1690292026665803776

[jaichind]

Voting over.  Counting started.

Tiny amounts of votes counted in Selangor as PN 7 PH-BN 2.  This is bogus as this early count as PN ahead in a couple of Chinese seats which shows the ultra-rural counting bias so far.

[jaichind]

Ultra early leads with a tiny number of votes so the numbers make no sense

https://prn.luminews.my/overall

Selangor
PN       13
PH-BN   3


Penang
PN        5
PH-BN   0


Kelantan
PN        0
PH-BN   0


Terengganu
PH-BN   1
PN         0


Kedah
PN         0
PH-BN    0


Negeri Sembilan
PN         1
PH-BN    0

[jaichind]

MUDA is ahead of PH in the early count of one of Selangor seats

[jaichind]

Ultra early leads with a tiny number of votes so not relevant yet

https://prn.luminews.my/overall

Selangor
PN       13
PH-BN  11
MUDA    1


Penang
PN        7
PH-BN   5


Kelantan
PN        0
PH-BN   0


Terengganu
PH-BN   3
PN         2


Kedah
PN         1
PH-BN    1


Negeri Sembilan
PN         6
PH-BN    2

[jaichind]

Any PN candidate with a Chinese that is ahead now will should not be counted as a lead.

[jaichind]

Still ultra early leads.  A lot of PH-BN gains are Chinese seats normalizing a bit

https://prn.luminews.my/overall

Selangor
PH-BN  15
PN       13
MUDA    1


Penang
PH-BN 12
PN        6


Kelantan
PH-BN   3
PN        0


Terengganu
PH-BN   5
PN         4


Kedah
PN         3
PH-BN    1


Negeri Sembilan
PH-BN    8
PN         3

[jaichind]

More seats with leads but still ultra early in terms of votes.  

https://prn.luminews.my/overall

Selangor
PH-BN  24
PN       12
MUDA    1


Penang
PH-BN 18
PN        2


Kelantan
PN       12
PH-BN   3


Terengganu
PH-BN   7
PN         4


Kedah
PN         3
PH-BN    1


Negeri Sembilan
PH-BN   10
PN         3

[jaichind]

A lot of the Penang Malay seats on the Mainland have no leads yet so the low PN lead there is deceptive.

[jaichind]

The type of results you get in Chinese heavy seats.

[Logical]

Nothing surprising so far although PH-BN is doing better than I expected.

[jaichind]

More seats with leads but still ultra early in terms of votes.  

https://prn.luminews.my/overall

Selangor
PH-BN  35
PN         9
MUDA    1


Penang
PH-BN 22
PN        7


Kelantan
PN       14
PH-BN   4


Terengganu
PH-BN   6
PN         6


Kedah
PN        12
PH-BN    3


Negeri Sembilan
PH-BN   15
PN          5

Negeri Sembilan will be the closest state when it is all said and done

[jaichind]

More seats with leads but still ultra early in terms of votes. 

Mostly matching pre-election expectations with a slight overperformance for PH-BN

https://prn.luminews.my/overall

Selangor
PH-BN  37
PN       10
MUDA    1


Penang
PH-BN 24
PN        5


Kelantan
PN       17
PH-BN   3


Terengganu
PN       18
PH-BN   4


Kedah
PN        16
PH-BN    3
Ind.       1


Negeri Sembilan
PH-BN   16
PN          7

[jaichind]

More seats coming in seems to be slowing down but the leads are becoming more relevant

https://prn.luminews.my/overall

Selangor
PH-BN  37
PN       12
MUDA    1


Penang
PH-BN 26
PN        8


Kelantan
PN       25
PH-BN   2


Terengganu
PN       21
PH-BN   5


Kedah
PN        16
PH-BN    3
Ind.       1


Negeri Sembilan
PH-BN   18
PN          7

[jaichind]

So far the trend is that PH is still able to hold on to the Chinese, Indian, and urban Malay vote and limit PN gains with those groups.  It is clear that PN is eating into UMNO rural Malay votes as expected but Negeri Sembilan results show that UMNO still retains some support with rural Malays.

[jaichind]

Most seats have leads now.  PN's focus on Selangor vs Negeri Sembilan last minute seems justified.

https://prn.luminews.my/overall

Selangor
PH-BN  37
PN       14
MUDA    1


Penang
PH-BN 29
PN        8


Kelantan
PN       31
PH-BN   2


Terengganu
PN       26
PH-BN   2


Kedah
PN        22
PH-BN    2


Negeri Sembilan
PH-BN   24
PN          6

[jaichind]

Most seats have leads now.  I think Kedah has the most seats without leads

All 6 states have the winning alliance having a 2/3 majority.

https://prn.luminews.my/overall

Selangor
PH-BN  38
PN       14
MUDA    1


Penang
PH-BN 31
PN        8


Kelantan
PN       33
PH-BN   3


Terengganu
PN       27
PH-BN   1


Kedah
PN        22
PH-BN    2


Negeri Sembilan
PH-BN   27
PN          5

[jaichind]

Significant overperformance for UMNO in Negeri Sembilan.  Looks like the FELDA vote came through for them and beat back PN.

[jaichind]

A few more seats trickle in.  I think Kedah has the most seats without leads

All 6 states have the winning alliance having a 2/3 majority.

https://prn.luminews.my/overall

Selangor
PH-BN  38
PN       15
MUDA    1


Penang
PH-BN 28
PN       12


Kelantan
PN       35
PH-BN   3


Terengganu
PN       31
PH-BN   1


Kedah
PN        22
PH-BN    2


Negeri Sembilan
PH-BN   26
PN          7

[jaichind]

A few more seats trickle in.  I think Kedah has the most seats without leads

https://prn.luminews.my/overall

Selangor
PH-BN  36
PN       17
MUDA    1


Penang
PH-BN 29
PN       11


Kelantan
PN       41
PH-BN   3


Terengganu
PN       31
PH-BN   1


Kedah
PN        24
PH-BN    2


Negeri Sembilan
PH-BN   28
PN          6

[Oryxslayer]

Something interesting that's going on is that while BN is sweeping rural interior Negri Sembilan, they are mostly doing it off small margins less than 10% and often less than 5%. So many seats are similar and therefore are delivering the similar result of a expected tossup landing in favor of BN.

[jaichind]

Pretty much all seats have at least leads.  

MUDA loses their lead in one of the seats in Selangor


https://prn.luminews.my/overall

Selangor
PH-BN  38
PN       17

Penang
PH-BN 29
PN       11


Kelantan
PN       43
PH-BN   2


Terengganu (PN clean sweep !!!)
PN       32
PH-BN   0


Kedah
PN        33
PH-BN    3


Negeri Sembilan
PH-BN   31
PN          5

[Oryxslayer]

I believe Kelantan fully finishes it's count:

43 PN: 37 PAS, 6 Bersatu

1 BN: 1 UMNO

1 PH: 1 AMANAH

[jaichind]

I believe Kelantan fully finishes it's count:

43 PN: 37 PAS, 6 Bersatu

1 BN: 1 UMNO

1 PH: 1 AMANAH

But https://pru.astroawani.com/  has PH-BN winning 6 seats in Kelantan.  Not sure which site is correct.