Malaysia State Elections: Penang, Selangor, N9, Kelantan, T'ganu, Kedah 2023 and by-elections 2023

[Novelty]

PH and PAS-led states had decided not to hold its state polls concurrently with the recent general election on November 19 2022.  Their terms end on the following dates:

Selangor 26/6/23
Kelantan 28/6/23
T'ganu 1/7/23
N9 2/7/23
Kedah 4/7/23
Penang 2/9/23

and elections have to be held before 25/8/23 for Selangor up to 2/9/23 for Penang.

Penang, Selangor and Negri Sembilan are led by PH while Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu are led by PAS.

Penang open to discussing simultaneous polls with five other states

[jaichind]

If the new PH-BN grand alliance does not do a good job to show that DAP has very little if any power within the new government this is a great chance for PN to sweep the Malay areas of these states.  In such a case they will not win Penang nor Selangor but will become a powerful opposition to PH in those states while sweeping the rest.

[jaichind]

I wonder if PH will just back BN in Terengganu and Kelantan in return for BN withdrawing some candidates where BN cannot win on their own in other states.

[jaichind]

PH and BN will have a seat-sharing alliance in all 6 states with details coming out soon.   It seems the seat allocation will come out soon.

I am sure the algorithm will be
1) All DAP seats will be contested by DAP
2) All >70% Malay seats will be contested by UMNO which would include most of the seats won by PPBM last time as part of the PH alliance
3) Most seats won by PKR and AMANAH held seats will be contested by the incumbent party although some very rural heavy Malay seats might be handed over to BN
4) UMNO might give a couple of seats here and there from its allocated seats to MCA and MIC

This will pretty much mean that in Terengganu and Kelantan UMNO will pretty much contest all the seats with PH support.  In Kedah it will be mostly UMNO but there will be a couple of DAP seats (Chinese heavy areas) and PKR seats (mixed areas)

In Selangor, Negeri Sembilan and Penang, all Chinese, Indian and mixed seats will goto PH and all Malay seats would go to UMNO with a few from UMNO's quota going to MCA or MIC.

The result will most likely be a wipeout for UMNO.  DAP, PKR, and AMANAH will hold almost all the Chinese Indian and mixed seats while BN will be crushed by PAS-PPBM in the Malay seats.

[Joseph Cao]

Just reported that Selangor state assembly will dissolve on the 23rd. Kelantan has already announced it will go on the 22nd and Penang on the 28th. The other three have not announced yet but presumably all state elections will be held on the same date.

[Joseph Cao]

PH and BN will have a seat-sharing alliance in all 6 states with details coming out soon.   It seems the seat allocation will come out soon.

I am sure the algorithm will be
1) All DAP seats will be contested by DAP
2) All >70% Malay seats will be contested by UMNO which would include most of the seats won by PPBM last time as part of the PH alliance
3) Most seats won by PKR and AMANAH held seats will be contested by the incumbent party although some very rural heavy Malay seats might be handed over to BN
4) UMNO might give a couple of seats here and there from its allocated seats to MCA and MIC

This will pretty much mean that in Terengganu and Kelantan UMNO will pretty much contest all the seats with PH support.  In Kedah it will be mostly UMNO but there will be a couple of DAP seats (Chinese heavy areas) and PKR seats (mixed areas)

In Selangor, Negeri Sembilan and Penang, all Chinese, Indian and mixed seats will goto PH and all Malay seats would go to UMNO with a few from UMNO's quota going to MCA or MIC.

The result will most likely be a wipeout for UMNO.  DAP, PKR, and AMANAH will hold almost all the Chinese Indian and mixed seats while BN will be crushed by PAS-PPBM in the Malay seats.

I would say this is a good first approximation but what we know of the Kelantan allocation suggests PH is making off with more of the Malay seats than you are expecting. Though, again, this is Kelantan. From a couple of weeks ago:

BN and Pakatan Harapan (PH) in Kelantan have reached an agreement on seat allocation in preparation for the upcoming state elections.

Kelantan Umno information chief Zawawi Othman said Harapan has asked to contest in 14 out of the 45 state constituencies in Kelantan, and both parties agreed to the allocation.

“There are parliamentary constituencies where Harapan requested to contest in two state seats, some in only one seat, and there are also parliamentary constituencies where Harapan will not contest in any state seat.

“This demonstrates good cooperation, and the allocation process between BN and Harapan has been resolved smoothly and amicably with no outstanding objections,” he told Malaysiakini when contacted today.

Zawawi added that BN would field their candidates in all the state constituencies they won in the 2018 general elections.

The state constituencies of Kok Lanas, Gual Ipoh, Bukit Bunga, Ayer Lanas, Kuala Balah, Nenggiri, Paloh, and Galas are among the state seats to be contested by BN.

…

Meanwhile, sources within Harapan informed that the seats allocated to Harapan are Pasir Pekan, Panchor, Tanjong Mas, Kota Lama, Pengkalan Pasir, Chetok, Pasir Tumboh, Demit, Tawang, Kadok, Bukit Panau, Limbongan, Temangan, and Mengkebang.

“So far, the seat allocation has been agreed upon at the state leadership level, but Harapan hopes to secure additional seats.

“However, that depends on the discussions and decisions of the top leadership in both parties to determine the final allocation," said the source who declined to be named.

Bolded blue are all the seats won by BN (all UMNO) last election. Ayer Lanas is held by former Jeli MP Mustapa Mohamed who defected to PPBM.

The alleged PH seats are primarily Amanah/former PPBM which suggests more horse trading has been going on; supposedly six are going to PKR, six to Amanah, one to DAP, and the remaining one has not been agreed upon: this one is Kota Lama, which as the name suggests is Kota Bharu city center and has a non-Malay population of about 35% and so represents their theoretical best chance. It is presumably still out of reach in this environment but that is not stopping the interparty squabbling because obviously all three parties want this seat, and there are various rumors and counterrumors too complicated to go into here. The seat is also held by PAS's only Chinese elected official in the country so that's something.

UMNO wipeout is a tempting narrative at this point and the national party is doing everything it can to confirm it; I guess I would hold on applying it everywhere at least until things like BN's strange overperformance in N9 and whatever is going on in Hulu Selangor (more to come) are better understood.

[jaichind]

MUDA just announced that it will run separately from PH.  This will hurt PH in suburban swing seats.

[Joseph Cao]

Really I don't think anyone is too surprised when their relations with PKR have been going down almost since their conception. Almost everything they've criticized since last year has had something to do with PKR.

Anyway MUDA's electoral history to date is as follows:

• Contested 7 seats in the 2022 Johor state election as part of the unspoken pact with PH: six allocated from Amanah and DAP, and one (Larkin) where it clashed with PKR after talks between the two parties broke down. Won 1/7, the only seat of the seven with a non-Malay majority.
• Contested 6 seats in GE15 as part of the actual spoken but unwritten pact with PH. Won 1/6, the only seat with an incumbent.

A very clear trend in both elections has been the higher the Malay vote and the more rural the constituency, the worse MUDA performs. This is more apparent in the Johor results because GE15 includes such wacky outliers as Kepala Batas (scandal-plagued MUDA candidate caught in the middle of northern PAS wave) and Kota Marudu (Sabah. Enough said), but it is abundantly obvious that it doesn't pull very much votes of its own outside what the PH machinery can provide. This is not a new or original observation. And now, obviously, that PH machinery will be gone.

The critical seats for these elections are rurals and semi-rurals that PH extended into last election that are almost certainly gone with or without MUDA because of PN's existing appeal, which is the problem for MUDA. Who is going to use it as a register of disapproval when PN already exists? The only group of voters it theoretically could swing are urban votes so plugged in that they didn't need PH to introduce MUDA to them. To hurt PH, these voters would need to exist in large enough numbers in enough seats to affect the result. But these voters tend to congregate in seats that are already very safe for PH where support for MUDA is unlikely to affect the outcome.

This is why support for MUDA is extremely inflated online compared to its vote totals and why the MUDA sec-gen said a majority of their campaigning would be done online. Which is not an inherently bad strategy considering what PN did recently, but they need a strong narrative to catch electoral fire like PN did and PN is already sucking up all of that potential. The other difference is that PN was a coalition with the appropriate organization and money; parties not in a coalition tend to perform very poorly and there are no signs that MUDA will be different this time, in fact their past electoral results are exactly in line with this kind of forecast.

[Joseph Cao]

In other news Penang, Terengganu, and Kedah all dissolved their state assemblies on the 28th and Negri Sembilan is due to follow suit on July 1.

[Joseph Cao]

And since MUDA now claims they will contest in "less than 10%" of seats or around 20 seats total, this will hopefully be the last post I need to dedicate to their electoral impact.

[Joseph Cao]

Per the Election Commission, nomination date will be July 29 and the date of the election will be August 12.

A reminder of the seats up for election:

Kedah: 36 seats
PN 20 (PAS 14, PPBM 6); PH 10 (Amanah 5, PKR 3, DAP 2); BN 2 (UMNO 2); Pejuang 2; 2 vacant*

Kelantan: 45 seats
PN 37 (PAS 36, PPBM 1); BN 7 (UMNO 7); 1 vacant†

Terengganu: 32 seats
PN 22 (PAS 22); BN 10 (UMNO 10)

Penang: 40 seats
PH 33 (DAP 19, PKR 12, Amanah 2); BN 2 (UMNO 2); PN 1 (PAS 1); 4 vacant‡

Selangor: 56 seats
PH 40 (PKR 19, DAP 15, Amanah 6); BN 5 (UMNO 5); PN 5 (PPBM 4, PAS 1); Pejuang 2; PBM 2; WARISAN 1; 1 vacant**

Negri Sembilan: 36 seats
PH 20 (DAP 11, PKR 6, Amanah 3); BN 16 (UMNO 15, MIC 1)

*PKR incumbent vacated seat last December to become Speaker of the House, and PAS incumbent died of health complications last month.
†Vacancy from death of PAS incumbent to COVID-19 years ago, by-election never called.
‡4 PPBM assemblymen expelled in March after post-hoc application of the state's anti-party hopping law.
**Pejuang assemblyman expelled in February after failure to attend assembly sessions for six consecutive months.


Apropos of the earlier post about PH-BN seat sharing Zahid claims BN will contest "45%" of seats, or around 110 total, and PH will take the rest. The talks are happening at both state level between the state party chapters and at the national level with a special committee approving the decisions, and most states have completed their talks as of last week. Selangor was the most obvious laggard here for a few reasons I may expand on later.

It has been reported, so far, that

• There is something amiss in Kedah negotiations but the current landscape appears to be 20 for PH and 15 for BN, with a PKR seat reportedly still being negotiated;
• the breakdown in Kelantan is 14 to PH and 31 to BN;
• at last report, Terengganu PKR was spilling to the press that PH had 6 seats and BN 26 after a final decision at the state level, with a decision at the national level yet to be reported;
• UMNO is likely to get 6 in Penang, but no word on MCA and MIC as yet;
• BN is likely to get 11 seats in Selangor;
• BN's aim is for the Negeri Sembilan allocation to split 18-18, so two more seats than they had previously;
• as of late last month there were 9 seats still in contention between PH and BN, across all six states.

This adds up to 108 for BN. More to come, presumably.

[Logical]

Is there a common name for the PH-BN coalition? Pakatan Nasional? Barisan Harapan?

[Joseph Cao]

Is there a common name for the PH-BN coalition? Pakatan Nasional? Barisan Harapan?

Don't think any name has been floated for PH and BN specifically, the most common informal term after "unity government" (encompassing all parties inc. minor ones of course) is "Madani government" based on that word that Anwar never shuts up about.

That said "Front of Hope" is very apt considering the popular outlook for PH-BN.

[jaichind]

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2023/07/05/state-polls-mca-and-mic-to-sit-out-elections

"State polls: MCA and MIC to sit out elections"

This means UMNO wants to hog any mixed seat that is winnable to itself versus sharing them with MCA or MIC.

[jaichind]

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/true-or-not/2023/07/05/state-polls-s039gor-malay-voters-may-favour-perikatan-nasional-survey-finds

"State polls: S'gor Malay voters may favour Perikatan Nasional, survey finds"

Survey says the Selangor UMNO vote will swing toward PN in seats which are PH vs PN.  How to divide up mixed seats will be very delicate for PH and UMNO

[Novelty]

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2023/07/05/state-polls-mca-and-mic-to-sit-out-elections

"State polls: MCA and MIC to sit out elections"

This means UMNO wants to hog any mixed seat that is winnable to itself versus sharing them with MCA or MIC.

I don't think UMNO or the BN will be given any mixed seats.  All the mixed seats were won by PH last elections and I don't think they will give those up to BN this round.  MCA and MIC are probably sitting out the elections because they know 1. they won't be given any of the seats favourable to them and 2. they can't win in the malay seats.  Also, they do not want to lose any deposit or spend money on these elections, choosing instead of save for the next Federal election instead.

[jaichind]

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2023/07/05/state-polls-mca-and-mic-to-sit-out-elections

"State polls: MCA and MIC to sit out elections"

This means UMNO wants to hog any mixed seat that is winnable to itself versus sharing them with MCA or MIC.

I don't think UMNO or the BN will be given any mixed seats.  All the mixed seats were won by PH last elections and I don't think they will give those up to BN this round.  MCA and MIC are probably sitting out the elections because they know 1. they won't be given any of the seats favourable to them and 2. they can't win in the malay seats.  Also, they do not want to lose any deposit or spend money on these elections, choosing instead of save for the next Federal election instead.

Agreed that PH will not part with any seats it won in 2018.  But there is a technicality.  PPBM as part of the PH alliance won some seats some of which are mixed seats.  I can see PH giving some of them to BN given the fact that BN is likely to be creamed by PN in rural Malay-heavy seats.  The thinking was UMNO might give some of those to MCA and MIC.  MCA and MIC not running means UMNO choose to keep those and offered some rural Malay-heavy seats to MCA and MIC who said "Thanks but no thanks."

I do think if this dynamic goes on for a while MCA and MIC might defect to PN at some stage.

[Joseph Cao]

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2023/07/05/state-polls-mca-and-mic-to-sit-out-elections

"State polls: MCA and MIC to sit out elections"

This means UMNO wants to hog any mixed seat that is winnable to itself versus sharing them with MCA or MIC.

I don't think UMNO or the BN will be given any mixed seats.  All the mixed seats were won by PH last elections and I don't think they will give those up to BN this round.  MCA and MIC are probably sitting out the elections because they know 1. they won't be given any of the seats favourable to them and 2. they can't win in the malay seats.  Also, they do not want to lose any deposit or spend money on these elections, choosing instead of save for the next Federal election instead.

Agreed that PH will not part with any seats it won in 2018.  But there is a technicality.  PPBM as part of the PH alliance won some seats some of which are mixed seats.  I can see PH giving some of them to BN given the fact that BN is likely to be creamed by PN in rural Malay-heavy seats.  The thinking was UMNO might give some of those to MCA and MIC.  MCA and MIC not running means UMNO choose to keep those and offered some rural Malay-heavy seats to MCA and MIC who said "Thanks but no thanks."

I do think if this dynamic goes on for a while MCA and MIC might defect to PN at some stage.

The bolded could be a viable strategy if there were enough of those seats to go around, but there are not many PN mixed seats at all and those are overwhelmingly held by PKR defectees, and de facto should be given back to PKR under the incumbency principle.

Depending on what is meant by "mixed" and "Malay-heavy" and where we draw the line between them, what you suggested probably did actually happen at an earlier negotiation stage from what I can tell. The poster child for this strategy would have been something like Batang Kali – PPBM-won, around 35% non-Malay, any of UMNO/MCA/MIC/PKR/Amanah could plausibly contest, and in fact MCA wanted this seat. But on the flip side you have the overly greedy people who suggest things like MIC contesting in Sentosa, which isn't just mixed, it's literally the only Indian-plurality seat in the country and PH is never going to give it up.

So I think part of this is overreaching on MCA and MIC's part out of caution because central command is adopting a very broad definition of "winnable" that MCA and MIC are in no way capable of meeting. They can't pry mixed seats out of PH and they would be fighting for their lives in more Malay-heavy seats. Easier to just sit this one out and wait for another Melaka or Johor when you can ride the BN wave into office again, assuming one ever comes in future – they've been doing this since GE14, so not really a new dynamic when MCA and MIC both understand exactly what their situation is with big bro UMNO calling the shots like it has for years.

Which makes the very firm MCA denial of any defection to PN somewhat easier to understand…

https://twitter.com/weekasiongmp/status/1677201977296707585

…even though we all know Wee in particular has no issue with PN as a concept.

[Joseph Cao]

Endeavour-MGC polled Malay voters in Selangor over June 12-16 (n=1068, MOE ±3.0%, 95% confidence interval) drawn from all 56 state seats. Non-Malays were not polled.

link, link
Original reports, in Malay: link, link

Crosstabs (such as they are) are 50%-50% gender split and 45% B40, 40% M40, 15% T20.

Voting intention:
PH – 42%
PN – 33%
BN – 15%
MUDA – 1%
Pejuang – 0%
Don't know – 9%

(The 9% has a high likelihood of breaking for PN according to the survey but a reason is not stated.)

What is the most important consideration for you when choosing which party to vote for?
Party – 61%
Individual candidate – 28%
Religion – 7%
Economy – 3%
Race – 1%
Corruption – 0%
Liberal values – 0%

Should PH-BN continue to form the federal government?
Yes – 69%
No – 30%
No opinion – 1%

Anwar job approval:
Approve – 69%
Disapprove – 30%
No opinion – 1%

Federal government job approval:
Approve – 68%
Disapprove – 31%
No opinion – 1%

Amirudin job approval:
Approve – 71%
Disapprove – 28%
No opinion – 1%

Selangor government job approval:
Approve – 68%
Disapprove – 31%
No opinion – 1%

In your opinion, do you think that your rights in Malaysia are being threatened by others?*
Yes – 63%
No – 35%
Don't know – 2%

*Respondents did not have to provide a reason for or against

Are you aware of any government policies or initiatives aimed at curbing inflation or reducing the cost of living?
No – 87%
Yes – 13%

How concerned are you about the impact of inflation on your personal finances?
Extremely concerned – 49%
Moderately concerned – 40%
Slightly concerned – 11%
Not at all concerned – 0%
Don't know/no opinion – 0%

[Joseph Cao]

And for your weekend reading, Bridget Welsh has a very preliminary pregame of the elections sorted by state, under a few different scenario clusters (PN blowout, modest PN wave, government boost) to cover the full range of possibilities. Strongly recommend reading the whole thing but here is the money quote:

Given that this election is different, the analysis of potential voting needs to be more complex.

It needs to take into account potential crossover (also known as transferability) across traditional party loyalties, undecided voters, various patterns or turnout (some states have more outside voters than others) as well as different configurations and electoral histories in particular seats.

…

Below I present three different scenarios. These reflect the work and consolidation of multiple (over eight) different scenarios in each state.

The three scenario clusters are drawn from projections that vary turnout, cross-over of votes from party supporters to different coalitions and changes in support across age and ethnicity… [and] are based on a two-party contest – Perikatan Nasional (PN) and unity (Pakatan Harapan and BN), so at this juncture they leave out Muda and another other party/independent that might run. As noted, these scenarios are pre-nomination.

These scenarios are prepared to understand the complex electoral terrain … [and] aim to capture the variation of possibilities. Again, these scenarios should be understood to show the variation in Malaysia’s highly dynamic electorate.

[Joseph Cao]

I suppose the major recent news is the arrest of Kedah menteri besar and PAS elections director Sanusi Mohd Nor for allegedly* insulting the Sultan of Selangor in a campaign speech, for which he is facing two charges under the Sedition Act.

*For the record his specific claims are that unlike the Sultan of Kedah, who appointed Sanusi as MB, the Sultan of Selangor erred in appointing an MB from Pakatan and that this was because the Sultan of Selangor is not of true royal stock like the Sultan of Kedah (the word he used was "commoner"), hence is not genetically capable of making good decisions such as appointing PAS to govern states.

The effects for partisans on both sides are obvious but I am of two minds as to the effect on undecided voters. Sanusi's words have been spread pretty far and he has not comported himself as well as would be needed to defuse this situation of PAS straight up insulting royalty on the record, particularly the royalty of this particular state who are genuinely popular with its voters. On the other hand the actual low-info voters are likelier to hear about the arrest than the inciting speech and conclude abuse of power by the federal government. On the third hand this is not that much likelier because of how prolonged the initial coverage of the speech was.

[Joseph Cao]

In actual election-related news the EC went forward with the nullification of the Kuala Terengganu GE15 election result after the BN candidate brought objections on grounds that the PAS incumbent bribed voters. This has been substantiated and as PAS is not appealing the decision, a by-election will be held for the parliamentary seat on the same day as the state elections. Nomination and early voting dates will also happen concurrently with the state ones.

Previous overview of the seat:

P036 Kuala Terengganu: The Terengganu River estuary – from which the royal and state capital takes its name – provided an excellent fishing location. It provided the basis for Seberang Takir's keropok lekor (fish sausage) and Kampung Ladang's nasi dagang (rice, coconut milk, fish curry, other delicious stuff), both of which you absolutely must try before you leave this earth. It provided a confluence point for manufacturing industry of all kinds and and the ecologic base for the palm oil and rubber that continues to support its surrounding areas. With it has come transport links, universities and schools, bank headquarters, a nontrivial Chinese population, everything a city could ask for except the political culture of literally any city outside Terengganu or Kelantan. Not that this matters a great deal to the constituency, which extends out south of the city center on the east bank of the river as far as the UiTM campus and adjacent towns.
One-term PAS incumbent Ahmad Amzad Hashim has been content to serve quietly with his deputy portfolio. He can afford to; in the contest against UMNO divisional chief and 2013 candidate Mohd Zubir Embong, AMANAH 2018 candidate and PH state chair Raja Kamarul Bahrin, and PUTRA's Mohamad Abu Bakar Muda, the PAS cushion in the seat will let him withstand whatever gets thrown at him. PN hold

He could afford more than just that apparently.

It remains to be seen whether Ahmad Amzad will defend, but the names of both Terengganu menteri besar Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar and former UMNO MP Annuar Musa have been floated to replace him on the ballot. Regardless this is a very safe PAS seat and I expect the concurrent election coattails will not do any favors to PH+BN attempts to flip any of the four state seats within it, which are probably all safe PAS in this climate regardless.

(Press F for the electoral deposit of MUDA cofounder Luqman Long, who is contesting in one of the seats.)

[jaichind]

On the whole, the PH-BN seat-sharing talks were smooth and execution problem free.  It is not clear if the PH and BN votes are transferable but the problem-free nature of the seat sharing shows the mentality of "if we hang separately we will hang together" given the perception of the PN surge.

[Joseph Cao]

Talks within individual parties of course are another matter entirely.

The most controversial decision in Lenggeng to give the seat to UMNO at the eleventh hour, after AMANAH machinery was launched for its incumbent, seems to have been resolved without further incident. Comparing that with whatever is going on in Penang with separate incidents involving David Marshel and Dominic Lau…

[jaichind]

My back-of-the-envelope guess of results.

Kelantan and Terengganu will be PN clean sweeps.

Kedah (near PN clean sweep)
PN-PAS         21
PN-PPBM        9
BN-UMNO       0
PH-PKR          4
PH-DAP          2

Negeri Sembilan (PH-BN bearly holds on)
PH-DAP        11
PH-PKR          2
BN-UMNO       6
PN-PPBM        9
PN-PAS          8

Selangor (PN makes strong gains in Malay areas but still solid PH majority)
PH-DAP        16
PH-PKR        14
PH-AMANAH   4
BN-UMNO      2
PN-PPBM      10
PN-PAS        10

Penang (PN makes strong gains in Malay areas but PH still wins 2/3 majority)
PH-DAP       19
PH-PKR         8
PH-AMANAH  1
BN-UMNO     1  (this seat was mostly gifted by DAP which gave a mixed seat to UMNO to win)
PN-PPBM      4
PN-PAS         7

UMNO wipeout as most of the old UMNO base goes to PN.  UMNO, outside of parts of Negeri Sembilan, Johor, and Malacca, can only win in mixed seats that PKR used to be able to win and that is only if PH backs UMNO in those seats.