What’s driving the change in Arizona?

[jamestroll]

It is worth noting that until about 2016, and especially 2018, that Pima County, AZ often voted surprisingly competitive for the Republicans for a county full of white liberals and Hispanics. And this was before all the hysteria about the Latino vote "trending Republican".

It was not that uncommon for the GOP to win high profile races in Pima County. A GOP sheriff was elected as recently as 2016, but lost in 2020. Tucson City had a Republican mayor for over a decade in the 2000s, which would be nearly impossible today.

Suburban Tucson has been quite Republican, and still is a to lesser extent today. Though, I have not looked at suburban Tucson voting for the 2022 elections. But the GOP margin's collapsing there is hurting the GOP in Pima County.

While Pima County is a small part of the Arizona shift, it is quite indicative of the problems the GOP will have in the state going forward.

I remember the 2012 elections and and remember many thinking Carmona had a chance. He won the state of Arizona outside of Arizona without Maricopa County. Now, Maricopa County is often making the difference for Democratic candidates and pushing them through.

As someone who lived in Arizona over a decade ago, I remember the cultural difference and vibes between Maricopa and Pima counties. Now Phoenix area does not have as conservative of a vibe. It is visible as well with more people in Maricopa embracing desert landscaping. While it is not strictly a partisan issue now, in the past using desert landscaping in a desert was a liberal only trait.

[jamestroll]

2014, in the last GOP wave, the Democrats were trounced statewide in Arizona. There were two race semi-competitive. Attorney General and Secretary of State.

For Secretary of State, Terry Goddard lost but almost carried Greenlee County



it used to be that Democrats in Arizona would plan to keep Maricopa County "close" and hope that they can get enough votes in Pima County and do well enough in the rurals to push the rest of the state margin outside of Maricopa County to override it. That is exactly what happened in the 2002 Gubernatorial Election. Though if I am remembering correctly, Goddard did carry Maricopa in 2002 but Napolitano did not.

But now Democrats are able to compete and even win Maricopa County. But can not compete in counties they used to win on occasion such as Pinal and Greenlee.