What’s driving the change in Arizona?
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  What’s driving the change in Arizona?
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Fwillb21
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« on: November 23, 2022, 10:56:17 PM »

While Arizona was not long ago a reliably red state, lately it has been certainly trending D, considering it now has two Democratic Senators, a Democratic Governor, and even the SOS and AG are Democratic.

For those of you somewhat similar with Arizona, what has been lately behind the change? Is it more college whites in the suburbs, or is it more so immigrants and Native Americans?

As for college whites in Arizona, where is it that a lot of them are concentrated in the Phoenix Metro? Because when I look at the map of the results, it seems like it’s just the City of Phoenix that’s blue and all of the suburbs are still quite red.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: November 23, 2022, 10:59:06 PM »

This is fascinating to me because I expected Arizona to behave a lot more like Florida this year than it actually did.  My understanding is that Lake even improved on Trump in plurality-Hispanic areas?
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #2 on: November 23, 2022, 11:06:51 PM »

I think there's a growing white liberal population unlike Florida. Tucson was always relatively liberal for a southwest city and has only become moreso. In Pheonix, Dems have made insane gains in Tempe/Mesa area.

The GOP needs to do strong in the suburbs in AZ because there are not that many rural communities to pad there margins (and a lot of rural areas are heavily D native reservations anyways lol). And the suburbs are just becoming demographically less favorable.

In Florida, you really have a lack of white liberal communities, especially for how large the state is.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #3 on: November 24, 2022, 12:38:21 AM »

The reason Arizona was a red-leaning state was because of Maricopa county. In fact, Rs used to better there than they did statewide. The state outside of Maricopa county is only red enough to overcome Tuscon and Pima County by a small margin. If you were to remove Maricopa county, Trump only would have won the state by Purple heart%. Remove Maricopa and Pima and he only wins it by 17 points. For a Republican state that is incredibly weak.
Nevada without Clark and Washoe is Trump+39 for example.

If Rs ever want to win the state-even in a squeaker-they have to limit the loss in Maricopa to less than 2 pts. If Dems ever start winning Maricopa county by 5+ consistently its over.

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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #4 on: November 24, 2022, 12:43:28 AM »

The reason Arizona was a red-leaning state was because of Maricopa county. In fact, Rs used to better there than they did statewide. The state outside of Maricopa county is only red enough to overcome Tuscon and Pima County by a small margin. If you were to remove Maricopa county, Trump only would have won the state by Purple heart%. Remove Maricopa and Pima and he only wins it by 17 points. For a Republican state that is incredibly weak.
Nevada without Clark and Washoe is Trump+39 for example.

If Rs ever want to win the state-even in a squeaker-they have to limit the loss in Maricopa to less than 2 pts. If Dems ever start winning Maricopa county by 5+ consistently its over.



Tbf Mohave County is growing extremely fast and has been netting Rs quite a lot of votes, as Native and rural Hispanic areas have been more stagnant overall.

But yeah at the end of the day, AZ is a pretty urban state and once Dems start winning by 5%-7% a GOP path becomes basically impossible.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #5 on: November 24, 2022, 08:27:16 AM »

It is worth noting that until about 2016, and especially 2018, that Pima County, AZ often voted surprisingly competitive for the Republicans for a county full of white liberals and Hispanics. And this was before all the hysteria about the Latino vote "trending Republican".

It was not that uncommon for the GOP to win high profile races in Pima County. A GOP sheriff was elected as recently as 2016, but lost in 2020. Tucson City had a Republican mayor for over a decade in the 2000s, which would be nearly impossible today.

Suburban Tucson has been quite Republican, and still is a to lesser extent today. Though, I have not looked at suburban Tucson voting for the 2022 elections. But the GOP margin's collapsing there is hurting the GOP in Pima County.

While Pima County is a small part of the Arizona shift, it is quite indicative of the problems the GOP will have in the state going forward.

I remember the 2012 elections and and remember many thinking Carmona had a chance. He won the state of Arizona outside of Arizona without Maricopa County. Now, Maricopa County is often making the difference for Democratic candidates and pushing them through.

As someone who lived in Arizona over a decade ago, I remember the cultural difference and vibes between Maricopa and Pima counties. Now Phoenix area does not have as conservative of a vibe. It is visible as well with more people in Maricopa embracing desert landscaping. While it is not strictly a partisan issue now, in the past using desert landscaping in a desert was a liberal only trait.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #6 on: November 24, 2022, 08:43:38 AM »

2014, in the last GOP wave, the Democrats were trounced statewide in Arizona. There were two race semi-competitive. Attorney General and Secretary of State.

For Secretary of State, Terry Goddard lost but almost carried Greenlee County



it used to be that Democrats in Arizona would plan to keep Maricopa County "close" and hope that they can get enough votes in Pima County and do well enough in the rurals to push the rest of the state margin outside of Maricopa County to override it. That is exactly what happened in the 2002 Gubernatorial Election. Though if I am remembering correctly, Goddard did carry Maricopa in 2002 but Napolitano did not.

But now Democrats are able to compete and even win Maricopa County. But can not compete in counties they used to win on occasion such as Pinal and Greenlee.
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TML
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« Reply #7 on: November 24, 2022, 09:57:13 AM »

For Maricopa County, the canary in the coal mine was 2016, since that year marked the first time this county voted more Democratic than the state at-large (before that, it always voted more Republican than the state at-large, even when Democratic candidates carried it). This foreshadowed it flipping D in the 2018 Senate contest, as well as subsequent high-profile contests in 2020 and 2022.
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Sbane
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« Reply #8 on: November 24, 2022, 12:51:05 PM »

The reason Arizona was a red-leaning state was because of Maricopa county. In fact, Rs used to better there than they did statewide. The state outside of Maricopa county is only red enough to overcome Tuscon and Pima County by a small margin. If you were to remove Maricopa county, Trump only would have won the state by Purple heart%. Remove Maricopa and Pima and he only wins it by 17 points. For a Republican state that is incredibly weak.
Nevada without Clark and Washoe is Trump+39 for example.

If Rs ever want to win the state-even in a squeaker-they have to limit the loss in Maricopa to less than 2 pts. If Dems ever start winning Maricopa county by 5+ consistently its over.



Flagstaff and Sedona aren't talked about as much, but they are critical in keeping the margins low for the Republicans outside of the big cities. Yuma, with its large Hispanic population, is another reason but things are starting to look favorable for the Republicans there, just not at a fast enough pace.
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HillGoose
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« Reply #9 on: November 24, 2022, 02:17:18 PM »

hillgeese flocking out here

we've decided to make this part of our year-round range instead of just seasonal migratory range
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prag_prog
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« Reply #10 on: November 24, 2022, 02:23:42 PM »

I feel like AZ GOP (thanks Kelli Ward) has also helped Dems a lot..they could have won some of these races if they just nominated generic Republicans but instead they nominated some crazies
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Wormless Gourd
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« Reply #11 on: November 24, 2022, 03:52:45 PM »

AZ electorate remains amazingly white(CVAP is a little under 80%), so it's fair to say the issue for Republicans is college/urban whites. Phoenix used to be competitive, now it's like D+20, Pima county used to be competitive, now just about every Dem this year got over 60%. Republicans don't have the same spark with the state's educated class like they used to.
Add in that Western rural areas aren't enough of a factor and the red suburbs are shifting left faster than they're netting votes for Republicans(like most of the country and not like Florida or Texas), you can see why the state has been voting the way it has.
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Sbane
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« Reply #12 on: November 24, 2022, 05:09:13 PM »

AZ electorate remains amazingly white(CVAP is a little under 80%), so it's fair to say the issue for Republicans is college/urban whites. Phoenix used to be competitive, now it's like D+20, Pima county used to be competitive, now just about every Dem this year got over 60%. Republicans don't have the same spark with the state's educated class like they used to.
Add in that Western rural areas aren't enough of a factor and the red suburbs are shifting left faster than they're netting votes for Republicans(like most of the country and not like Florida or Texas), you can see why the state has been voting the way it has.

There are a few things which are countertrends in Texas which differentiate it from Arizona. There are more people in rural areas and has many small to medium size cities which vote hard Republican. Cities that size in Arizona basically cancel out each others votes. There is also a big oil and gas industry here which rightfully feels attacked by the Democrats. Lots of possible votes for the Democrats are out of reach due to that reason. And finally, Texas was always more Republican than Arizona. Even in 2004 it only voted by about 10 points for Bush.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #13 on: November 24, 2022, 05:36:36 PM »

hillgeese flocking out here

we've decided to make this part of our year-round range instead of just seasonal migratory range
Tbh I wonder why geese don’t just stay in the warm areas all year long. Would save a lot of time.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #14 on: November 24, 2022, 10:36:27 PM »

AZ electorate remains amazingly white(CVAP is a little under 80%), so it's fair to say the issue for Republicans is college/urban whites. Phoenix used to be competitive, now it's like D+20, Pima county used to be competitive, now just about every Dem this year got over 60%. Republicans don't have the same spark with the state's educated class like they used to.
Add in that Western rural areas aren't enough of a factor and the red suburbs are shifting left faster than they're netting votes for Republicans(like most of the country and not like Florida or Texas), you can see why the state has been voting the way it has.

There are a few things which are countertrends in Texas which differentiate it from Arizona. There are more people in rural areas and has many small to medium size cities which vote hard Republican. Cities that size in Arizona basically cancel out each others votes. There is also a big oil and gas industry here which rightfully feels attacked by the Democrats. Lots of possible votes for the Democrats are out of reach due to that reason. And finally, Texas was always more Republican than Arizona. Even in 2004 it only voted by about 10 points for Bush.

Texas is generally just a tougher carry for Dems because it is so much more diverse. In AZ, if you can do well in both Pheonix and Tucson, you've basically won the state. In Texas though, you have Dallas, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, Hidalgo, El Paso, and a few of the more mid-sized communities you mentioned and each one has a lot of very specific racial/cultural enclaves so if you're a Dem, you may have to fine-tune your messaging for differnet places which can be tricky.

A good example would be Austin v Houston. Austin is very much the stereotypical educated white liberal city where you need to be pushing for a lot of these more progressive beliefs. Houston on the other hand is very much dominated by the oil industry and has some more culturally conservative Hispanics and Asians that you need to figure out how to message too.

One of the biggest suprises in 2022 was how much Abbott improved over Trump in rural Texas; I already thought Rs were getting physically close to their ceiling but somehow Abbott got Trump 85%+ counties throughout the state to swing another 5 points to him. On net though, the rural areas have pretty stagnant growth so I think eventually the cities, especially Austin, will push the state to be more competitive. It's really a matter of time but it's hard to see Texas still being GOP leaning by the end of the decade without a re-alignment (which is very much possible).
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Sbane
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« Reply #15 on: November 25, 2022, 07:12:50 PM »

AZ electorate remains amazingly white(CVAP is a little under 80%), so it's fair to say the issue for Republicans is college/urban whites. Phoenix used to be competitive, now it's like D+20, Pima county used to be competitive, now just about every Dem this year got over 60%. Republicans don't have the same spark with the state's educated class like they used to.
Add in that Western rural areas aren't enough of a factor and the red suburbs are shifting left faster than they're netting votes for Republicans(like most of the country and not like Florida or Texas), you can see why the state has been voting the way it has.

There are a few things which are countertrends in Texas which differentiate it from Arizona. There are more people in rural areas and has many small to medium size cities which vote hard Republican. Cities that size in Arizona basically cancel out each others votes. There is also a big oil and gas industry here which rightfully feels attacked by the Democrats. Lots of possible votes for the Democrats are out of reach due to that reason. And finally, Texas was always more Republican than Arizona. Even in 2004 it only voted by about 10 points for Bush.

Texas is generally just a tougher carry for Dems because it is so much more diverse. In AZ, if you can do well in both Pheonix and Tucson, you've basically won the state. In Texas though, you have Dallas, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, Hidalgo, El Paso, and a few of the more mid-sized communities you mentioned and each one has a lot of very specific racial/cultural enclaves so if you're a Dem, you may have to fine-tune your messaging for differnet places which can be tricky.

A good example would be Austin v Houston. Austin is very much the stereotypical educated white liberal city where you need to be pushing for a lot of these more progressive beliefs. Houston on the other hand is very much dominated by the oil industry and has some more culturally conservative Hispanics and Asians that you need to figure out how to message too.

One of the biggest suprises in 2022 was how much Abbott improved over Trump in rural Texas; I already thought Rs were getting physically close to their ceiling but somehow Abbott got Trump 85%+ counties throughout the state to swing another 5 points to him. On net though, the rural areas have pretty stagnant growth so I think eventually the cities, especially Austin, will push the state to be more competitive. It's really a matter of time but it's hard to see Texas still being GOP leaning by the end of the decade without a re-alignment (which is very much possible).

There just isn't too much more the Republicans can squeeze out of the rural areas. I guess we keep saying that every time but at some point you reach a limit. In particular this will hurt the Republicans in the state house of representatives.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #16 on: November 25, 2022, 08:13:24 PM »

AZ electorate remains amazingly white(CVAP is a little under 80%), so it's fair to say the issue for Republicans is college/urban whites. Phoenix used to be competitive, now it's like D+20, Pima county used to be competitive, now just about every Dem this year got over 60%. Republicans don't have the same spark with the state's educated class like they used to.
Add in that Western rural areas aren't enough of a factor and the red suburbs are shifting left faster than they're netting votes for Republicans(like most of the country and not like Florida or Texas), you can see why the state has been voting the way it has.

There are a few things which are countertrends in Texas which differentiate it from Arizona. There are more people in rural areas and has many small to medium size cities which vote hard Republican. Cities that size in Arizona basically cancel out each others votes. There is also a big oil and gas industry here which rightfully feels attacked by the Democrats. Lots of possible votes for the Democrats are out of reach due to that reason. And finally, Texas was always more Republican than Arizona. Even in 2004 it only voted by about 10 points for Bush.

Texas is generally just a tougher carry for Dems because it is so much more diverse. In AZ, if you can do well in both Pheonix and Tucson, you've basically won the state. In Texas though, you have Dallas, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, Hidalgo, El Paso, and a few of the more mid-sized communities you mentioned and each one has a lot of very specific racial/cultural enclaves so if you're a Dem, you may have to fine-tune your messaging for differnet places which can be tricky.

A good example would be Austin v Houston. Austin is very much the stereotypical educated white liberal city where you need to be pushing for a lot of these more progressive beliefs. Houston on the other hand is very much dominated by the oil industry and has some more culturally conservative Hispanics and Asians that you need to figure out how to message too.

One of the biggest suprises in 2022 was how much Abbott improved over Trump in rural Texas; I already thought Rs were getting physically close to their ceiling but somehow Abbott got Trump 85%+ counties throughout the state to swing another 5 points to him. On net though, the rural areas have pretty stagnant growth so I think eventually the cities, especially Austin, will push the state to be more competitive. It's really a matter of time but it's hard to see Texas still being GOP leaning by the end of the decade without a re-alignment (which is very much possible).

There just isn't too much more the Republicans can squeeze out of the rural areas. I guess we keep saying that every time but at some point you reach a limit. In particular this will hurt the Republicans in the state house of representatives.

Rs geographical vote distribution in Texas is honestly terrible. You have a lot of wasted votes out of these Trump + 80 rural areas and high turnout Trump + 60 exurbs. Even though yes, there are some extremely lopsided areas in Ds favor, they are by and large low turnout with the excpetion of Austin.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #17 on: November 26, 2022, 11:45:23 AM »

AZ electorate remains amazingly white(CVAP is a little under 80%), so it's fair to say the issue for Republicans is college/urban whites. Phoenix used to be competitive, now it's like D+20, Pima county used to be competitive, now just about every Dem this year got over 60%. Republicans don't have the same spark with the state's educated class like they used to.
Add in that Western rural areas aren't enough of a factor and the red suburbs are shifting left faster than they're netting votes for Republicans(like most of the country and not like Florida or Texas), you can see why the state has been voting the way it has.

There are a few things which are countertrends in Texas which differentiate it from Arizona. There are more people in rural areas and has many small to medium size cities which vote hard Republican. Cities that size in Arizona basically cancel out each others votes. There is also a big oil and gas industry here which rightfully feels attacked by the Democrats. Lots of possible votes for the Democrats are out of reach due to that reason. And finally, Texas was always more Republican than Arizona. Even in 2004 it only voted by about 10 points for Bush.

Texas is generally just a tougher carry for Dems because it is so much more diverse. In AZ, if you can do well in both Pheonix and Tucson, you've basically won the state. In Texas though, you have Dallas, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, Hidalgo, El Paso, and a few of the more mid-sized communities you mentioned and each one has a lot of very specific racial/cultural enclaves so if you're a Dem, you may have to fine-tune your messaging for differnet places which can be tricky.

A good example would be Austin v Houston. Austin is very much the stereotypical educated white liberal city where you need to be pushing for a lot of these more progressive beliefs. Houston on the other hand is very much dominated by the oil industry and has some more culturally conservative Hispanics and Asians that you need to figure out how to message too.

One of the biggest suprises in 2022 was how much Abbott improved over Trump in rural Texas; I already thought Rs were getting physically close to their ceiling but somehow Abbott got Trump 85%+ counties throughout the state to swing another 5 points to him. On net though, the rural areas have pretty stagnant growth so I think eventually the cities, especially Austin, will push the state to be more competitive. It's really a matter of time but it's hard to see Texas still being GOP leaning by the end of the decade without a re-alignment (which is very much possible).

There just isn't too much more the Republicans can squeeze out of the rural areas. I guess we keep saying that every time but at some point you reach a limit. In particular this will hurt the Republicans in the state house of representatives.

Rs geographical vote distribution in Texas is honestly terrible. You have a lot of wasted votes out of these Trump + 80 rural areas and high turnout Trump + 60 exurbs. Even though yes, there are some extremely lopsided areas in Ds favor, they are by and large low turnout with the excpetion of Austin.

I thought this was generally true in the Southwest and not specific to Texas?  However, R's held the AZ  legislature on a commission map and the congressional seats split 6R/3D while D's won most of the statewide offices, so IDK?
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #18 on: November 26, 2022, 12:46:06 PM »
« Edited: November 26, 2022, 12:53:06 PM by Mr.Phips »

AZ electorate remains amazingly white(CVAP is a little under 80%), so it's fair to say the issue for Republicans is college/urban whites. Phoenix used to be competitive, now it's like D+20, Pima county used to be competitive, now just about every Dem this year got over 60%. Republicans don't have the same spark with the state's educated class like they used to.
Add in that Western rural areas aren't enough of a factor and the red suburbs are shifting left faster than they're netting votes for Republicans(like most of the country and not like Florida or Texas), you can see why the state has been voting the way it has.

There are a few things which are countertrends in Texas which differentiate it from Arizona. There are more people in rural areas and has many small to medium size cities which vote hard Republican. Cities that size in Arizona basically cancel out each others votes. There is also a big oil and gas industry here which rightfully feels attacked by the Democrats. Lots of possible votes for the Democrats are out of reach due to that reason. And finally, Texas was always more Republican than Arizona. Even in 2004 it only voted by about 10 points for Bush.

Texas is generally just a tougher carry for Dems because it is so much more diverse. In AZ, if you can do well in both Pheonix and Tucson, you've basically won the state. In Texas though, you have Dallas, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, Hidalgo, El Paso, and a few of the more mid-sized communities you mentioned and each one has a lot of very specific racial/cultural enclaves so if you're a Dem, you may have to fine-tune your messaging for differnet places which can be tricky.

A good example would be Austin v Houston. Austin is very much the stereotypical educated white liberal city where you need to be pushing for a lot of these more progressive beliefs. Houston on the other hand is very much dominated by the oil industry and has some more culturally conservative Hispanics and Asians that you need to figure out how to message too.

One of the biggest suprises in 2022 was how much Abbott improved over Trump in rural Texas; I already thought Rs were getting physically close to their ceiling but somehow Abbott got Trump 85%+ counties throughout the state to swing another 5 points to him. On net though, the rural areas have pretty stagnant growth so I think eventually the cities, especially Austin, will push the state to be more competitive. It's really a matter of time but it's hard to see Texas still being GOP leaning by the end of the decade without a re-alignment (which is very much possible).

There just isn't too much more the Republicans can squeeze out of the rural areas. I guess we keep saying that every time but at some point you reach a limit. In particular this will hurt the Republicans in the state house of representatives.

Rs geographical vote distribution in Texas is honestly terrible. You have a lot of wasted votes out of these Trump + 80 rural areas and high turnout Trump + 60 exurbs. Even though yes, there are some extremely lopsided areas in Ds favor, they are by and large low turnout with the excpetion of Austin.

I thought this was generally true in the Southwest and not specific to Texas?  However, R's held the AZ  legislature on a commission map and the congressional seats split 6R/3D while D's won most of the statewide offices, so IDK?

Republicans basically rigged the commission.  They made it so the Biden seats (AZ-01 and AZ-06) went for him by like .1%.  They did the same in the legislature where they made the 14th seats and 15th “Dem” seats(out of 30) seats that Biden won by very low single digit margins.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #19 on: November 26, 2022, 01:07:26 PM »

A bunch of words in this thread to say "suburban shift." 
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Damocles
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« Reply #20 on: November 27, 2022, 05:14:59 AM »

I can only speak for myself. I moved down here because my employer paid me to. I wonder how many others came from the Pacific Northwest, California, the Northeast, and other heavily D-leaning places for similar reasons?

It’s also incredibly hot and dry out here unless you go to Sedona or Flagstaff or some other place. There just aren’t many places to have tons of rural communities. Outside of Phoenix and Tucson, on whatever suitable land is usable, it’s mostly just copper mines, cotton fields, citrus groves, and cattle ranches.

Those aren’t exactly conducive to a large, settled, permanent population. So you have a state where the overwhelming majority of its population live in just two metropolitan areas. Washington state is like that, and so are California and Nevada. It just took Arizona more time to follow this political development.
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« Reply #21 on: November 27, 2022, 08:58:28 PM »

It’s also incredibly hot and dry out here unless you go to Sedona or Flagstaff or some other place. There just aren’t many places to have tons of rural communities. Outside of Phoenix and Tucson, on whatever suitable land is usable, it’s mostly just copper mines, cotton fields, citrus groves, and cattle ranches.

I think  I’ve heard of those 4 before, they called them the 4 C’s in this documentary from the 50s I saw online
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Aurelius
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« Reply #22 on: November 28, 2022, 12:01:58 PM »

AZ electorate remains amazingly white(CVAP is a little under 80%), so it's fair to say the issue for Republicans is college/urban whites. Phoenix used to be competitive, now it's like D+20, Pima county used to be competitive, now just about every Dem this year got over 60%. Republicans don't have the same spark with the state's educated class like they used to.
Add in that Western rural areas aren't enough of a factor and the red suburbs are shifting left faster than they're netting votes for Republicans(like most of the country and not like Florida or Texas), you can see why the state has been voting the way it has.

There are a few things which are countertrends in Texas which differentiate it from Arizona. There are more people in rural areas and has many small to medium size cities which vote hard Republican. Cities that size in Arizona basically cancel out each others votes. There is also a big oil and gas industry here which rightfully feels attacked by the Democrats. Lots of possible votes for the Democrats are out of reach due to that reason. And finally, Texas was always more Republican than Arizona. Even in 2004 it only voted by about 10 points for Bush.

Texas is generally just a tougher carry for Dems because it is so much more diverse. In AZ, if you can do well in both Pheonix and Tucson, you've basically won the state. In Texas though, you have Dallas, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, Hidalgo, El Paso, and a few of the more mid-sized communities you mentioned and each one has a lot of very specific racial/cultural enclaves so if you're a Dem, you may have to fine-tune your messaging for differnet places which can be tricky.

A good example would be Austin v Houston. Austin is very much the stereotypical educated white liberal city where you need to be pushing for a lot of these more progressive beliefs. Houston on the other hand is very much dominated by the oil industry and has some more culturally conservative Hispanics and Asians that you need to figure out how to message too.

One of the biggest suprises in 2022 was how much Abbott improved over Trump in rural Texas; I already thought Rs were getting physically close to their ceiling but somehow Abbott got Trump 85%+ counties throughout the state to swing another 5 points to him. On net though, the rural areas have pretty stagnant growth so I think eventually the cities, especially Austin, will push the state to be more competitive. It's really a matter of time but it's hard to see Texas still being GOP leaning by the end of the decade without a re-alignment (which is very much possible).

There just isn't too much more the Republicans can squeeze out of the rural areas. I guess we keep saying that every time but at some point you reach a limit. In particular this will hurt the Republicans in the state house of representatives.

The Panhandle is probably near maxed out (although every time I say this, they manage to squeeze even more out somehow). But there's still a lot of room for Republicans to grow in deep east Texas, the middle of the Triangle, the Victoria region, etc.
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