Is North Carolina cursed for Federal Dems statewide?

[Sol]

"Curses" are not a substitute for political analysis.

[Sol]

It’s the inverse image to Nevada.

I was going to point out NV GOV this year, before remembering NC's got a Democratic governor (Roy Cooper).

His initial election was a squeaker, too. 

The legislature has so much power in NC compared to other swing states.  It can gerrymander itself with no input from the governor and the veto threshold is only 60%.  Yes, there are some other states with only simple majority override rules, but in the current alignment, they all have Republican supermajorities anyway.  Put this together and it means that a party that wins the NC legislature in a redistricting year is likely to continue holding it for a couple of decades, and they will be able to bend election law significantly in their favor in the process. 

On the bright side regarding NC redistricting, the NC Supreme Court is majority-Democratic, and it can step in to ensure a fair map. I mean, just look at what they did last year. The GOP tried yet another gerrymander, and the Democratic hacks on the court stepped in and drew up a map that’s by no means a Republican gerrymander.

The incoming court is majority R

Unfortunate to hear. We have to just hope that the Democrats win a majority on the court in 2028/2030 (whatever the last election is before 2030-2031 redistricting). And that this new court doesn’t replace an actually fair map with an R gerry. Truth be told, though I appreciate that the Democratic court ensured a fair map for this decade, I inherently oppose explicitly partisan courts with elections and official partisan affiliations. All it ultimately results in is even more hackish and partisan courts, and, just like congressmen and governors and all elected politicians, judges being pressured to pander to their bases rather than voting their conscience. The Missouri rule is fine, of course, but the way NC does it really is not.

The congressional map is only good for this cycle; Republicans will almost certainly draw a 11-3 map that will be rubber-stamped by the court.

[Sol]

It’s the inverse image to Nevada.

I was going to point out NV GOV this year, before remembering NC's got a Democratic governor (Roy Cooper).

His initial election was a squeaker, too. 

The legislature has so much power in NC compared to other swing states.  It can gerrymander itself with no input from the governor and the veto threshold is only 60%.  Yes, there are some other states with only simple majority override rules, but in the current alignment, they all have Republican supermajorities anyway.  Put this together and it means that a party that wins the NC legislature in a redistricting year is likely to continue holding it for a couple of decades, and they will be able to bend election law significantly in their favor in the process. 

On the bright side regarding NC redistricting, the NC Supreme Court is majority-Democratic, and it can step in to ensure a fair map. I mean, just look at what they did last year. The GOP tried yet another gerrymander, and the Democratic hacks on the court stepped in and drew up a map that’s by no means a Republican gerrymander.

The incoming court is majority R

Unfortunate to hear. We have to just hope that the Democrats win a majority on the court in 2028/2030 (whatever the last election is before 2030-2031 redistricting). And that this new court doesn’t replace an actually fair map with an R gerry. Truth be told, though I appreciate that the Democratic court ensured a fair map for this decade, I inherently oppose explicitly partisan courts with elections and official partisan affiliations. All it ultimately results in is even more hackish and partisan courts, and, just like congressmen and governors and all elected politicians, judges being pressured to pander to their bases rather than voting their conscience. The Missouri rule is fine, of course, but the way NC does it really is not.

The congressional map is only good for this cycle; Republicans will almost certainly draw a 11-3 map that will be rubber-stamped by the court.

I truly hope this is just dooming on your part. In any case, I believe an 11-3 could have great dummymander potential in the right year (just like OH’s map is very risky for the GOP).

They might do a 10-4 if they're cautious of that, but regardless I suspect Manning and Jackson are in trouble (and Nickel ofc). Regardless I think a gerrymandered map is almost certain

[Sol]

"Curses" are not a substitute for political analysis.

Do you agree with me that the clock is ticking for NC Republicans?

Look at places like suburban Wake County and south central Charlotte, and most of rural eastern NC can't drop for the Democrats much further anyway because it has a significant black population. It's like a slower Georgia trend...really it just takes a small shove for it to go to Tilt D.

Places like Cabarrus and Iredell are exploding in population though and staying deep red. They're kind of like Horry in SC.

The seat which prevented a supermajority in the house was a seat which Democrats flipped in the Concord area.