Is North Carolina cursed for Federal Dems statewide?

[BloJo94]

After Obama’s squeaker victory in the state in 2008, in which Kay Hagan won comfortably, the state has always been competitive (except 2010) but went narrowly for the GOP for every Pres and Senate election since.

Are Federal statewide Dems just cursed here?

Also, I think it’s been partially “blocked” from Dem waves by not having a Senate Seat on Class I.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's one of those cases where the state seems competative on paper, always ends up being close, but almost always breaks Rs.

I think in NC, the main issue for Dems is you have these very dense rural and exurban counties that have shifted hard right post Obama and net the GOP a ton of votes, even as they have made gains in cities like Charlotte and Raliegh.

I also think the lack of a clear centralized city such as Atlanta is to Georgia sort of hurts them. It can be harder to message, do turnout operations, and a bunch of other things if you have to make proactive to appear to several metros.

Dems main hope long term in NC is that both greater Charlotte and Raliegh have had insane growth and have also shifted pretty hard left in recent cycles. On the flip side, most of rural NC is shrinking, and in the Appalachian part of the state, the GOP is getting pretty close to their ceiling. The GOP def has more room to grow in Eastern NC though, especially as the black belt depopulates, and that was really what killed Cheri Beasley this cycle despite basically matching Biden in many other parts of the state.

I think on the state legislative level, Dems are frankly screwed. There are a bunch of narrow Biden districts in the black belt they are bound to lose due to depopulation whereas they don't have a ton of suburban pickup opportunities due to the pretty sharp political cutoffs in both Charlotte and Raliegh. In other words Dems already self-pack and this will only get worse as their coalition becomes almost exclusively urban in the state. Plus the GOP will likely just be able to redraw the lines if they ever get close to losing.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

NC is a good example of a successfully salvaged state. The state used to vote for Bush by double digits until Obama flipped it blue. After 2008, Dems won the presidency there, flipped a US senate seat, had the statewide trifecta, and the majority of the US house delegation. Then Rs actually woke up and won the state back. I call it "salvaged", because while it is a red state again it is not as red as it was pre 2008, but its a good example of what happens when a state party realizes their error and corrects it.

[TheReckoning]

It’s the inverse image to Nevada.

[ProgressiveModerate]

NC is a good example of a successfully salvaged state. The state used to vote for Bush by double digits until Obama flipped it blue. After 2008, Dems won the presidency there, flipped a US senate seat, had the statewide trifecta, and the majority of the US house delegation. Then Rs actually woke up and won the state back. I call it "salvaged", because while it is a red state again it is not as red as it was pre 2008, but its a good example of what happens when a state party realizes their error and corrects it.

Tbf, I think certain states like CO weren't really salvageable for the GOP even if they tried. There were fundamental demographic shifts pushing the state D at a pretty inevitable and rapid pace.

In NC, while there are some shifts favorable to Dems, they aren't as extreme as a lot of notorious examples of previously R leaning states becoming D leaning.

[Padfoot]

I don't have a good answer to the question but something I found interesting was that in the 4 most recent presidential and senate elections (8 races total) the winning candidate has only exceeded 50% of the vote 3 times.

Another interesting tidbit was how consistent the margin in NC has been relative to the national popular vote in presidential years

2008 - 6.93 more R than the US
2012 - 5.9 more R than the US
2016 - 5.75 more R than the US
2020 - 5.8 more R than the US

So to me it looks like Dems can only win here when the national popular vote is tipped more heavily in their favor as it uniquely was in 2008.

[TML]

As mentioned elsewhere on this forum, the main geographic reason for NC’s R lean is its so-called “Countrypolitan” counties - i.e. counties on the outskirts of major metropolitan areas. These counties are mostly whiter and less educated than the state at-large, and have thus provided Republicans with greater margins compared to rural counties (in 2020, Trump won these “Countrypolitan” counties by 407K votes, while he only won the rural/small-town counties by 352K votes). Democrats don’t have to flip these counties outright; they just have to reduce their losing margins there. One way to do so is to increase turnout in the urban core areas in these counties (e.g. Gastonia in Gaston County, Monroe in Union County, Reidsville in Rockingham County, etc.).

[Sol]

"Curses" are not a substitute for political analysis.

[Tekken_Guy]

Charlotte is basically kind of like Nashville, with the suburban counties generally outvoting the main county. Mecklenburg is obviously the Davidson of the state, meanwhile Cabarrus is basically Rutherford and Union is Williamson. Iredell and Gaston are like Sumter and Wilson.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

There is a specter haunting North Carolina — the specter of Jesse Helms

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

"Curses" are not a substitute for political analysis.

Do you agree with me that the clock is ticking for NC Republicans?

Look at places like suburban Wake County and south central Charlotte, and most of rural eastern NC can't drop for the Democrats much further anyway because it has a significant black population. It's like a slower Georgia trend...really it just takes a small shove for it to go to Tilt D.

[Schiff for Senate]

It’s the inverse image to Nevada.

I was going to point out NV GOV this year, before remembering NC's got a Democratic governor (Roy Cooper).

[Skill and Chance]

It’s the inverse image to Nevada.

I was going to point out NV GOV this year, before remembering NC's got a Democratic governor (Roy Cooper).

His initial election was a squeaker, too. 

The legislature has so much power in NC compared to other swing states.  It can gerrymander itself with no input from the governor and the veto threshold is only 60%.  Yes, there are some other states with only simple majority override rules, but in the current alignment, they all have Republican supermajorities anyway.  Put this together and it means that a party that wins the NC legislature in a redistricting year is likely to continue holding it for a couple of decades, and they will be able to bend election law significantly in their favor in the process. 

[Schiff for Senate]

It’s the inverse image to Nevada.

I was going to point out NV GOV this year, before remembering NC's got a Democratic governor (Roy Cooper).

His initial election was a squeaker, too. 

The legislature has so much power in NC compared to other swing states.  It can gerrymander itself with no input from the governor and the veto threshold is only 60%.  Yes, there are some other states with only simple majority override rules, but in the current alignment, they all have Republican supermajorities anyway.  Put this together and it means that a party that wins the NC legislature in a redistricting year is likely to continue holding it for a couple of decades, and they will be able to bend election law significantly in their favor in the process. 

On the bright side regarding NC redistricting, the NC Supreme Court is majority-Democratic, and it can step in to ensure a fair map. I mean, just look at what they did last year. The GOP tried yet another gerrymander, and the Democratic hacks on the court stepped in and drew up a map that’s by no means a Republican gerrymander.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It’s the inverse image to Nevada.

I was going to point out NV GOV this year, before remembering NC's got a Democratic governor (Roy Cooper).

His initial election was a squeaker, too. 

The legislature has so much power in NC compared to other swing states.  It can gerrymander itself with no input from the governor and the veto threshold is only 60%.  Yes, there are some other states with only simple majority override rules, but in the current alignment, they all have Republican supermajorities anyway.  Put this together and it means that a party that wins the NC legislature in a redistricting year is likely to continue holding it for a couple of decades, and they will be able to bend election law significantly in their favor in the process. 

On the bright side regarding NC redistricting, the NC Supreme Court is majority-Democratic, and it can step in to ensure a fair map. I mean, just look at what they did last year. The GOP tried yet another gerrymander, and the Democratic hacks on the court stepped in and drew up a map that’s by no means a Republican gerrymander.

The incoming court is majority R

[Schiff for Senate]

It’s the inverse image to Nevada.

I was going to point out NV GOV this year, before remembering NC's got a Democratic governor (Roy Cooper).

His initial election was a squeaker, too. 

The legislature has so much power in NC compared to other swing states.  It can gerrymander itself with no input from the governor and the veto threshold is only 60%.  Yes, there are some other states with only simple majority override rules, but in the current alignment, they all have Republican supermajorities anyway.  Put this together and it means that a party that wins the NC legislature in a redistricting year is likely to continue holding it for a couple of decades, and they will be able to bend election law significantly in their favor in the process. 

On the bright side regarding NC redistricting, the NC Supreme Court is majority-Democratic, and it can step in to ensure a fair map. I mean, just look at what they did last year. The GOP tried yet another gerrymander, and the Democratic hacks on the court stepped in and drew up a map that’s by no means a Republican gerrymander.

The incoming court is majority R

Unfortunate to hear. We have to just hope that the Democrats win a majority on the court in 2028/2030 (whatever the last election is before 2030-2031 redistricting). And that this new court doesn’t replace an actually fair map with an R gerry. Truth be told, though I appreciate that the Democratic court ensured a fair map for this decade, I inherently oppose explicitly partisan courts with elections and official partisan affiliations. All it ultimately results in is even more hackish and partisan courts, and, just like congressmen and governors and all elected politicians, judges being pressured to pander to their bases rather than voting their conscience. The Missouri rule is fine, of course, but the way NC does it really is not.

[Sol]

It’s the inverse image to Nevada.

I was going to point out NV GOV this year, before remembering NC's got a Democratic governor (Roy Cooper).

His initial election was a squeaker, too. 

The legislature has so much power in NC compared to other swing states.  It can gerrymander itself with no input from the governor and the veto threshold is only 60%.  Yes, there are some other states with only simple majority override rules, but in the current alignment, they all have Republican supermajorities anyway.  Put this together and it means that a party that wins the NC legislature in a redistricting year is likely to continue holding it for a couple of decades, and they will be able to bend election law significantly in their favor in the process. 

On the bright side regarding NC redistricting, the NC Supreme Court is majority-Democratic, and it can step in to ensure a fair map. I mean, just look at what they did last year. The GOP tried yet another gerrymander, and the Democratic hacks on the court stepped in and drew up a map that’s by no means a Republican gerrymander.

The incoming court is majority R

Unfortunate to hear. We have to just hope that the Democrats win a majority on the court in 2028/2030 (whatever the last election is before 2030-2031 redistricting). And that this new court doesn’t replace an actually fair map with an R gerry. Truth be told, though I appreciate that the Democratic court ensured a fair map for this decade, I inherently oppose explicitly partisan courts with elections and official partisan affiliations. All it ultimately results in is even more hackish and partisan courts, and, just like congressmen and governors and all elected politicians, judges being pressured to pander to their bases rather than voting their conscience. The Missouri rule is fine, of course, but the way NC does it really is not.

The congressional map is only good for this cycle; Republicans will almost certainly draw a 11-3 map that will be rubber-stamped by the court.

[Schiff for Senate]

It’s the inverse image to Nevada.

I was going to point out NV GOV this year, before remembering NC's got a Democratic governor (Roy Cooper).

His initial election was a squeaker, too. 

The legislature has so much power in NC compared to other swing states.  It can gerrymander itself with no input from the governor and the veto threshold is only 60%.  Yes, there are some other states with only simple majority override rules, but in the current alignment, they all have Republican supermajorities anyway.  Put this together and it means that a party that wins the NC legislature in a redistricting year is likely to continue holding it for a couple of decades, and they will be able to bend election law significantly in their favor in the process. 

On the bright side regarding NC redistricting, the NC Supreme Court is majority-Democratic, and it can step in to ensure a fair map. I mean, just look at what they did last year. The GOP tried yet another gerrymander, and the Democratic hacks on the court stepped in and drew up a map that’s by no means a Republican gerrymander.

The incoming court is majority R

Unfortunate to hear. We have to just hope that the Democrats win a majority on the court in 2028/2030 (whatever the last election is before 2030-2031 redistricting). And that this new court doesn’t replace an actually fair map with an R gerry. Truth be told, though I appreciate that the Democratic court ensured a fair map for this decade, I inherently oppose explicitly partisan courts with elections and official partisan affiliations. All it ultimately results in is even more hackish and partisan courts, and, just like congressmen and governors and all elected politicians, judges being pressured to pander to their bases rather than voting their conscience. The Missouri rule is fine, of course, but the way NC does it really is not.

The congressional map is only good for this cycle; Republicans will almost certainly draw a 11-3 map that will be rubber-stamped by the court.

I truly hope this is just dooming on your part. In any case, I believe an 11-3 could have great dummymander potential in the right year (just like OH’s map is very risky for the GOP).

[Sol]

It’s the inverse image to Nevada.

I was going to point out NV GOV this year, before remembering NC's got a Democratic governor (Roy Cooper).

His initial election was a squeaker, too. 

The legislature has so much power in NC compared to other swing states.  It can gerrymander itself with no input from the governor and the veto threshold is only 60%.  Yes, there are some other states with only simple majority override rules, but in the current alignment, they all have Republican supermajorities anyway.  Put this together and it means that a party that wins the NC legislature in a redistricting year is likely to continue holding it for a couple of decades, and they will be able to bend election law significantly in their favor in the process. 

On the bright side regarding NC redistricting, the NC Supreme Court is majority-Democratic, and it can step in to ensure a fair map. I mean, just look at what they did last year. The GOP tried yet another gerrymander, and the Democratic hacks on the court stepped in and drew up a map that’s by no means a Republican gerrymander.

The incoming court is majority R

Unfortunate to hear. We have to just hope that the Democrats win a majority on the court in 2028/2030 (whatever the last election is before 2030-2031 redistricting). And that this new court doesn’t replace an actually fair map with an R gerry. Truth be told, though I appreciate that the Democratic court ensured a fair map for this decade, I inherently oppose explicitly partisan courts with elections and official partisan affiliations. All it ultimately results in is even more hackish and partisan courts, and, just like congressmen and governors and all elected politicians, judges being pressured to pander to their bases rather than voting their conscience. The Missouri rule is fine, of course, but the way NC does it really is not.

The congressional map is only good for this cycle; Republicans will almost certainly draw a 11-3 map that will be rubber-stamped by the court.

I truly hope this is just dooming on your part. In any case, I believe an 11-3 could have great dummymander potential in the right year (just like OH’s map is very risky for the GOP).

They might do a 10-4 if they're cautious of that, but regardless I suspect Manning and Jackson are in trouble (and Nickel ofc). Regardless I think a gerrymandered map is almost certain

[Schiff for Senate]

It’s the inverse image to Nevada.

I was going to point out NV GOV this year, before remembering NC's got a Democratic governor (Roy Cooper).

His initial election was a squeaker, too. 

The legislature has so much power in NC compared to other swing states.  It can gerrymander itself with no input from the governor and the veto threshold is only 60%.  Yes, there are some other states with only simple majority override rules, but in the current alignment, they all have Republican supermajorities anyway.  Put this together and it means that a party that wins the NC legislature in a redistricting year is likely to continue holding it for a couple of decades, and they will be able to bend election law significantly in their favor in the process. 

On the bright side regarding NC redistricting, the NC Supreme Court is majority-Democratic, and it can step in to ensure a fair map. I mean, just look at what they did last year. The GOP tried yet another gerrymander, and the Democratic hacks on the court stepped in and drew up a map that’s by no means a Republican gerrymander.

The incoming court is majority R

Unfortunate to hear. We have to just hope that the Democrats win a majority on the court in 2028/2030 (whatever the last election is before 2030-2031 redistricting). And that this new court doesn’t replace an actually fair map with an R gerry. Truth be told, though I appreciate that the Democratic court ensured a fair map for this decade, I inherently oppose explicitly partisan courts with elections and official partisan affiliations. All it ultimately results in is even more hackish and partisan courts, and, just like congressmen and governors and all elected politicians, judges being pressured to pander to their bases rather than voting their conscience. The Missouri rule is fine, of course, but the way NC does it really is not.

The congressional map is only good for this cycle; Republicans will almost certainly draw a 11-3 map that will be rubber-stamped by the court.

I truly hope this is just dooming on your part. In any case, I believe an 11-3 could have great dummymander potential in the right year (just like OH’s map is very risky for the GOP).

They might do a 10-4 if they're cautious of that, but regardless I suspect Manning and Jackson are in trouble (and Nickel ofc). Regardless I think a gerrymandered map is almost certain

Yeah 10-4 sounds more likely and more strategically sensible long term.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It’s the inverse image to Nevada.

I was going to point out NV GOV this year, before remembering NC's got a Democratic governor (Roy Cooper).

His initial election was a squeaker, too. 

The legislature has so much power in NC compared to other swing states.  It can gerrymander itself with no input from the governor and the veto threshold is only 60%.  Yes, there are some other states with only simple majority override rules, but in the current alignment, they all have Republican supermajorities anyway.  Put this together and it means that a party that wins the NC legislature in a redistricting year is likely to continue holding it for a couple of decades, and they will be able to bend election law significantly in their favor in the process. 

On the bright side regarding NC redistricting, the NC Supreme Court is majority-Democratic, and it can step in to ensure a fair map. I mean, just look at what they did last year. The GOP tried yet another gerrymander, and the Democratic hacks on the court stepped in and drew up a map that’s by no means a Republican gerrymander.

The incoming court is majority R

Unfortunate to hear. We have to just hope that the Democrats win a majority on the court in 2028/2030 (whatever the last election is before 2030-2031 redistricting). And that this new court doesn’t replace an actually fair map with an R gerry. Truth be told, though I appreciate that the Democratic court ensured a fair map for this decade, I inherently oppose explicitly partisan courts with elections and official partisan affiliations. All it ultimately results in is even more hackish and partisan courts, and, just like congressmen and governors and all elected politicians, judges being pressured to pander to their bases rather than voting their conscience. The Missouri rule is fine, of course, but the way NC does it really is not.

The congressional map is only good for this cycle; Republicans will almost certainly draw a 11-3 map that will be rubber-stamped by the court.

I truly hope this is just dooming on your part. In any case, I believe an 11-3 could have great dummymander potential in the right year (just like OH’s map is very risky for the GOP).

They might do a 10-4 if they're cautious of that, but regardless I suspect Manning and Jackson are in trouble (and Nickel ofc). Regardless I think a gerrymandered map is almost certain

What kind of map do you envision NC Rs passing?

[Aurelius]

"Curses" are not a substitute for political analysis.

Do you agree with me that the clock is ticking for NC Republicans?

Look at places like suburban Wake County and south central Charlotte, and most of rural eastern NC can't drop for the Democrats much further anyway because it has a significant black population. It's like a slower Georgia trend...really it just takes a small shove for it to go to Tilt D.

Places like Cabarrus and Iredell are exploding in population though and staying deep red. They're kind of like Horry in SC.

[Skill and Chance]

"Curses" are not a substitute for political analysis.

Do you agree with me that the clock is ticking for NC Republicans?

Look at places like suburban Wake County and south central Charlotte, and most of rural eastern NC can't drop for the Democrats much further anyway because it has a significant black population. It's like a slower Georgia trend...really it just takes a small shove for it to go to Tilt D.

Places like Cabarrus and Iredell are exploding in population though and staying deep red. They're kind of like Horry in SC.

Yes, I think it could go either way.  There is some Florida potential where the Boomer retirees could save the NC R's.

In general, 2022 suggests Democrats should be more excited about the West than the South.  There's only one Atlanta to work with, but several potential Denvers. 

[Spectator]

"Curses" are not a substitute for political analysis.

Do you agree with me that the clock is ticking for NC Republicans?

Look at places like suburban Wake County and south central Charlotte, and most of rural eastern NC can't drop for the Democrats much further anyway because it has a significant black population. It's like a slower Georgia trend...really it just takes a small shove for it to go to Tilt D.

Places like Cabarrus and Iredell are exploding in population though and staying deep red. They're kind of like Horry in SC.

Cabarrus County is zooming left and will likely vote blue by 2028. Lots of black migration there, much like the Atlanta suburbs. Iredell doesn’t seem to be shifting more rightward either. The only thing that can save the NC GOP for the decade is the counties in the east getting more Republican and boomer retirements. The trend lines in Charlotte metro and Raleigh metro are ugly and not getting better.

[Aurelius]

"Curses" are not a substitute for political analysis.

Do you agree with me that the clock is ticking for NC Republicans?

Look at places like suburban Wake County and south central Charlotte, and most of rural eastern NC can't drop for the Democrats much further anyway because it has a significant black population. It's like a slower Georgia trend...really it just takes a small shove for it to go to Tilt D.

Places like Cabarrus and Iredell are exploding in population though and staying deep red. They're kind of like Horry in SC.

Cabarrus County is zooming left and will likely vote blue by 2028. Lots of black migration there, much like the Atlanta suburbs. Iredell doesn’t seem to be shifting more rightward either. The only thing that can save the NC GOP for the decade is the counties in the east getting more Republican and boomer retirements. The trend lines in Charlotte metro and Raleigh metro are ugly and not getting better.

I'm not super familiar with NC political geography, I picked those counties off the top of my head. The point is there are tons of counties like Iredell AFAIK, growing at a good clip while staying just as red in percentage, thus producing bigger raw vote margins. I don't think NC trends R but I don't think it'll necessarily trend D either.