Is North Carolina cursed for Federal Dems statewide?

[Skill and Chance]

It’s the inverse image to Nevada.

I was going to point out NV GOV this year, before remembering NC's got a Democratic governor (Roy Cooper).

His initial election was a squeaker, too. 

The legislature has so much power in NC compared to other swing states.  It can gerrymander itself with no input from the governor and the veto threshold is only 60%.  Yes, there are some other states with only simple majority override rules, but in the current alignment, they all have Republican supermajorities anyway.  Put this together and it means that a party that wins the NC legislature in a redistricting year is likely to continue holding it for a couple of decades, and they will be able to bend election law significantly in their favor in the process. 

[Skill and Chance]

"Curses" are not a substitute for political analysis.

Do you agree with me that the clock is ticking for NC Republicans?

Look at places like suburban Wake County and south central Charlotte, and most of rural eastern NC can't drop for the Democrats much further anyway because it has a significant black population. It's like a slower Georgia trend...really it just takes a small shove for it to go to Tilt D.

Places like Cabarrus and Iredell are exploding in population though and staying deep red. They're kind of like Horry in SC.

Yes, I think it could go either way.  There is some Florida potential where the Boomer retirees could save the NC R's.

In general, 2022 suggests Democrats should be more excited about the West than the South.  There's only one Atlanta to work with, but several potential Denvers. 

[Skill and Chance]

"Curses" are not a substitute for political analysis.

Do you agree with me that the clock is ticking for NC Republicans?

Look at places like suburban Wake County and south central Charlotte, and most of rural eastern NC can't drop for the Democrats much further anyway because it has a significant black population. It's like a slower Georgia trend...really it just takes a small shove for it to go to Tilt D.

Places like Cabarrus and Iredell are exploding in population though and staying deep red. They're kind of like Horry in SC.

The seat which prevented a supermajority in the house was a seat which Democrats flipped in the Concord area.

Assuming the new state supreme court goes back to a hands-off approach, how difficult would it be for NC R's to draw a supermajority map?