Is North Carolina cursed for Federal Dems statewide?

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's one of those cases where the state seems competative on paper, always ends up being close, but almost always breaks Rs.

I think in NC, the main issue for Dems is you have these very dense rural and exurban counties that have shifted hard right post Obama and net the GOP a ton of votes, even as they have made gains in cities like Charlotte and Raliegh.

I also think the lack of a clear centralized city such as Atlanta is to Georgia sort of hurts them. It can be harder to message, do turnout operations, and a bunch of other things if you have to make proactive to appear to several metros.

Dems main hope long term in NC is that both greater Charlotte and Raliegh have had insane growth and have also shifted pretty hard left in recent cycles. On the flip side, most of rural NC is shrinking, and in the Appalachian part of the state, the GOP is getting pretty close to their ceiling. The GOP def has more room to grow in Eastern NC though, especially as the black belt depopulates, and that was really what killed Cheri Beasley this cycle despite basically matching Biden in many other parts of the state.

I think on the state legislative level, Dems are frankly screwed. There are a bunch of narrow Biden districts in the black belt they are bound to lose due to depopulation whereas they don't have a ton of suburban pickup opportunities due to the pretty sharp political cutoffs in both Charlotte and Raliegh. In other words Dems already self-pack and this will only get worse as their coalition becomes almost exclusively urban in the state. Plus the GOP will likely just be able to redraw the lines if they ever get close to losing.

[ProgressiveModerate]

NC is a good example of a successfully salvaged state. The state used to vote for Bush by double digits until Obama flipped it blue. After 2008, Dems won the presidency there, flipped a US senate seat, had the statewide trifecta, and the majority of the US house delegation. Then Rs actually woke up and won the state back. I call it "salvaged", because while it is a red state again it is not as red as it was pre 2008, but its a good example of what happens when a state party realizes their error and corrects it.

Tbf, I think certain states like CO weren't really salvageable for the GOP even if they tried. There were fundamental demographic shifts pushing the state D at a pretty inevitable and rapid pace.

In NC, while there are some shifts favorable to Dems, they aren't as extreme as a lot of notorious examples of previously R leaning states becoming D leaning.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It’s the inverse image to Nevada.

I was going to point out NV GOV this year, before remembering NC's got a Democratic governor (Roy Cooper).

His initial election was a squeaker, too. 

The legislature has so much power in NC compared to other swing states.  It can gerrymander itself with no input from the governor and the veto threshold is only 60%.  Yes, there are some other states with only simple majority override rules, but in the current alignment, they all have Republican supermajorities anyway.  Put this together and it means that a party that wins the NC legislature in a redistricting year is likely to continue holding it for a couple of decades, and they will be able to bend election law significantly in their favor in the process. 

On the bright side regarding NC redistricting, the NC Supreme Court is majority-Democratic, and it can step in to ensure a fair map. I mean, just look at what they did last year. The GOP tried yet another gerrymander, and the Democratic hacks on the court stepped in and drew up a map that’s by no means a Republican gerrymander.

The incoming court is majority R

[ProgressiveModerate]

"Curses" are not a substitute for political analysis.

Do you agree with me that the clock is ticking for NC Republicans?

Look at places like suburban Wake County and south central Charlotte, and most of rural eastern NC can't drop for the Democrats much further anyway because it has a significant black population. It's like a slower Georgia trend...really it just takes a small shove for it to go to Tilt D.

Places like Cabarrus and Iredell are exploding in population though and staying deep red. They're kind of like Horry in SC.

The seat which prevented a supermajority in the house was a seat which Democrats flipped in the Concord area.

Assuming the new state supreme court goes back to a hands-off approach, how difficult would it be for NC R's to draw a supermajority map?

A supermajority is only 60% in NC. In 2022 they were just 1 seat short in the state House on fair maps, and outright won a state Senate supermajority.

In other words it's pretty easy to draw, especially as Dems become more concentrated to the cities and lose previously D-leaning black-belt seats due to depopulation.

[ProgressiveModerate]

"Curses" are not a substitute for political analysis.

Do you agree with me that the clock is ticking for NC Republicans?

Look at places like suburban Wake County and south central Charlotte, and most of rural eastern NC can't drop for the Democrats much further anyway because it has a significant black population. It's like a slower Georgia trend...really it just takes a small shove for it to go to Tilt D.

Places like Cabarrus and Iredell are exploding in population though and staying deep red. They're kind of like Horry in SC.

Cabarrus County is zooming left and will likely vote blue by 2028. Lots of black migration there, much like the Atlanta suburbs. Iredell doesn’t seem to be shifting more rightward either. The only thing that can save the NC GOP for the decade is the counties in the east getting more Republican and boomer retirements. The trend lines in Charlotte metro and Raleigh metro are ugly and not getting better.

I'm not super familiar with NC political geography, I picked those counties off the top of my head. The point is there are tons of counties like Iredell AFAIK, growing at a good clip while staying just as red in percentage, thus producing bigger raw vote margins. I don't think NC trends R but I don't think it'll necessarily trend D either.

I think the issue for the NC GOP is if Dems continue getting larger vote nets out of places like Wake and Mecklenburg Counties, they GOP has to make that up somewhere. Holding ground with the same vote nets in exurbs of Charlotte and Appalachia isn't enough, they actually have to grow their vote nets.

One shift that really helps the GOP is how badly the black belt has been depopulating in NC specifically. That by default will bite into Dems numbers a bit. You also have decent growth along the NC coast that has been R.

[ProgressiveModerate]

"Curses" are not a substitute for political analysis.

Do you agree with me that the clock is ticking for NC Republicans?

Look at places like suburban Wake County and south central Charlotte, and most of rural eastern NC can't drop for the Democrats much further anyway because it has a significant black population. It's like a slower Georgia trend...really it just takes a small shove for it to go to Tilt D.

Places like Cabarrus and Iredell are exploding in population though and staying deep red. They're kind of like Horry in SC.

The seat which prevented a supermajority in the house was a seat which Democrats flipped in the Concord area.

Assuming the new state supreme court goes back to a hands-off approach, how difficult would it be for NC R's to draw a supermajority map?

I’m not sure if Republicans can redraw the legislature mid decade like they can for the congressional map (which was clearly stated as a 2022 only map).

The area there is a bit gray but I think the conservative majority finds some way to allow them to redraw the map.

The state Senate map as is is a slight R gerrymander that seems like it'll be hard for Ds to crack. Trump won 28 of 50 districts and Rs won 30 in 2022. The issue is that almost all the swing seats Ds need are in areas where shifts are brutal, like around the Lumbee tribe or the depopulating black belt. The only seat with favorable shifts is the Carrabus seat; everything else is pretty R.

On the state House level, again, topline the map actually seems pretty fair at 61 Trump to 59 Biden, but a ton of those Biden seats are extremely narrow, and there are at least 6 I can count that look like they won't be D during the latter part of the decade. And again, on the flip side, there aren't a ton of great suburban flip opportunities for Ds.

In NC, I see Dems becoming an almost high turnout urban-exclusive party which creates a simillar problem for them as WI where even a "fair" map makes it very hard for them to win a majority.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The clock is not ticking for NC Rs so long as rural east NC exists.

Republicans are close to maxed out there. There's a significant black population in that area.

It's shrinking by the day outside of maybe Greenfield.