2008 Senate Races - Bad Map for Republicans

[Adlai Stevenson]

It looks like we will have no more than eight truly contested Senate races as of right now. That could change if Sens. Ted Stevens (R-AK), Pete Domenici (R-NM), Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) or John Warner (R-VA) choose to retire. The same is true for Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV).

VULNERABLE SENATE SEATS (in order of party switch)

1) Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) - Coleman, a former Democrat and mayor of St. Paul, won the Senate seat that formerly belonged to liberal icon Paul Wellstone, who died tragically before his re-election. Minnesota Democrats selected former Vice President and 1984 Democratic presidential nominee Walter Mondale to take his place on the ballot for the six-week race. Mondale should have won the seat, but a memorial service for Wellstone turned in to a "pep rally" for Mondale and turned the race on its head. Coleman benefited from a national tide in 2002 which swept in a number of freshman Republican Senators. In 2008, Coleman will likely face liberal comedian, author, former radio host, and Minnesota native Al Franken. An open Minnesota Senate race in 2006 was won by the Democrat by over 20 points and Coleman will likely be down in the polls, although he is moderating on the war. Franken is unknown as a candidate, so we'll have to see how he does.

2) Sen. John Sununu (R-NH) - Sununu, the son of the former two-term Governor, defeated former Governor Jeanne Shaheen in a very close 2002 race when the political winds favored Sununu. In 2008, the winds will likely be very different in a state which is tending Democratic. In 2006, NH Dems defeated two Republican incumbent House members, overwhelmingly re-elected their Democratic Governor and took back the State legislature for the first time in over 100 years. It's unclear who Sununu's opponent will be, but without question he is in for a tough race.

3) Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) - Collins is not as popular as Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME), although she is perceived as a moderate. The Democratic candidate will likely be Rep. Tom Allen (D-ME) who has already announced he is running. This race barely leans for Collins but could be a toss-up.

4) Sen. Wayne Allard (R-CO) - With Allard's retirement, this will be an open seat race. The likely Democratic candidate is Rep. Mark Udall (D-CO), who has been planning to run for the Senate in Colorado for many months, regardless of Allard's decision to retire and honor his own term limit pledge. The Republican field would include possible candidates former Reps. Bob Beauprez (the '06 GOP nominee for Governor) and Scott McInnis, as well as '04 Senate nominee Pete Coors (who ran an uninspired campaign and lost to Ken Salazar). This race leans to a Democratic pickup as the state is trending Democratic with recent wins of the Governorship, a Senate seat and a house seat.

5) Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD) - Crass though it may be to think of politics when a person is in the hospital, it's hard to see Johnson fully recovering and running for re-election in 2008. The race would likely be between Gov. Mike Rounds (R-SD) and Rep. Stephanie Herseth (D-SD) and would lean towards a Republican pick-up given the state's political leanings. Herseth won the seat in 2004 in a special election after Rep. Bill Janklow resigned. Rounds won re-election in 2006 and is a popular figure in South Dakota.

6) Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) - Landrieu has gotten high marks for her work on Hurricane Katrina, but would be challenged in a race with Rep. Bobby Jindal (R-LA) who has already said he will run for Governor in 2007. If Jindal loses the Governor's race, he may choose to run against Landrieu and would have a chance at defeating her. Jindal is favored to win the Governor's race, especially if he faces the incumbent Kathleen Blanco (D-LA). In Jindal wins the Governorship,

7) Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) - Montana has been trending Democratic, so Baucus should be fine, especially since he has assumed the Chairmanship of the Senate Finance Committee and already has $2 million in the bank in a state where you only need $5 million to run a good race. They only way Baucus could be challenged is if the state's lone Congressman, Denny Rehberg, decides to challenge Baucus again, as he did in 1996 Rehberg is a popular figure in the state and a former Lieutenant Governor, but he only has about $100,000 in the bank and may not be willing to give up his safe House seat (where he has a seat on the House Approps committee) for another shot at Baucus. He may choose to remain in the House until Baucus retires, which could be 2008 but will surely be 2014 or run against one-term Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) in 2012.

Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR) - Smith could race a campaign simply because the state is more liberal than he is, but no strong Democrat has stepped forward yet. Smith also has renounced his support for the Iraq War, so that will help him at home.

Overall, the map of Senate races in 2008 does not favor Republicans. There are 21 GOP seats up and 12 Democrat seats up, and of the seats where there are races, they overwhelmingly favor Democrats at this point.

http://politicalinsider.com/2007/02/2008_senate_races_bad_map_for.html

[Adlai Stevenson]

I disagree with these ratings.  Also there information on Tim Johnson is bang wrong; he has hired a top party strategist and is actively seeking re-election with the aid of Max Baucus.  I also think even if he didn't run for re-election, Herseth would be favoured over Rounds in a match-up.  Rounds was damaged by the Abortion issue.  In 2006, Herseth was re-elected 69%-29% and Rounds 61%-36%.  Both big margins, but there is a difference.  Anyway my rankings of the most vulnerable Senate races would be:

1. Colorado (R to D)
2. New Hampshire (R to D)
3. Louisiana (D to R)
4. Minnesota (R to D)
5. Oregon (R to D)
6. Maine (R to D)

[Verily]

Johnson will win reelection, or Herseth will hold his seat. Even if Johnson steps down, I doubt Rounds will run.

Colorado is clearly and certainly the most likely seat to switch in 2008; I think even all of the Republicans here would agree.

Also, Mary Landrieu will certainly not be defeated by Bobby Jindal. If Jindal loses the 2007 governor's race, his political career is over; he certainly wouldn't defeat the much more popular Landrieu if he loses to Blanco.

Likelihood to switch:

>60%
1) Colorado

50-60%
2) New Hampshire

40-50%
3) Minnesota
4) Louisiana (because no credible GOPer has emerged)

30-40%
5) Maine
6) Oregon (could move ahead of Maine depending on the Dem candidate, and maybe ahead of Louisiana if the GOP ends up giving Landrieu a free ride)

<30%
All others

[Joe Biden 2020]

Don't forget Oklahoma.  Sen. Jim Inhofe is highly unpopular back at home.  Its likely, that a good Democrat could knock Inhofe off and reclaim an Oklahoma seat for the Democrats for the first time since 1994 when then Sen. David Boren retired to assume the presidency of the University of Oklahoma and Sen. Jim Inhofe was elected.

Oklahoma is trending Democratic, as well.  We just re-elected a Democratic Governor by an overwhelming margin in 2006 against a highly respected Oklahoma Republican Former Congressman Ernest Istook of CD-5.

Oklahoma will still probably go Republican in 2008 for the Presidency, but it won't be by as large of a margin as 2004.  The GOP candidate will struggle to reach 55%, with most likely around 53 or 54%.

I would put Oklahoma Senate from the safe Republican to barely lean Republican, possibly Republican-leaning toss-up.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The Democrats have a chance at defeating Senator Dole of North Carolina. Senator Warner of Virginia who has been whining about how he fillibustered his own bill could be vulnerable, or could retire. If Domenici retires, that race should be competitive.

[Joe Biden 2020]

The Democrats have a chance at defeating Senator Dole of North Carolina. Senator Warner of Virginia who has been whining about how he fillibustered his own bill could be vulnerable, or could retire. If Domenici retires, that race should be competitive.

All three of those seats are very prime targets for Democrats.  Especially if John Edwards were to win the Democratic Nomination for President, that would, imo, put North Carolina and Virginia as toss-ups.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Don't forget Oklahoma.  Sen. Jim Inhofe is highly unpopular back at home.  Its likely, that a good Democrat could knock Inhofe off and reclaim an Oklahoma seat for the Democrats for the first time since 1994 when then Sen. David Boren retired to assume the presidency of the University of Oklahoma and Sen. Jim Inhofe was elected.

Oklahoma is trending Democratic, as well.  We just re-elected a Democratic Governor by an overwhelming margin in 2006 against a highly respected Oklahoma Republican Former Congressman Ernest Istook of CD-5.

Oklahoma will still probably go Republican in 2008 for the Presidency, but it won't be by as large of a margin as 2004.  The GOP candidate will struggle to reach 55%, with most likely around 53 or 54%.

I would put Oklahoma Senate from the safe Republican to barely lean Republican, possibly Republican-leaning toss-up.

It pays to dream....

Sounds a lot like my hopes in NJ

[InsideTheBeltway]

The order here is off a bit, I think, although each of the races they mention will probably be competitive.  I'm still not totally sure that the Maine race is going to be so competitive, and certainly not more so than Colorado or Louisiana.

[Rococo4]

has allen officially announced in Maine?  I havent heard if he did

[Virginian87]

The Democrats have a chance at defeating Senator Dole of North Carolina. Senator Warner of Virginia who has been whining about how he fillibustered his own bill could be vulnerable, or could retire. If Domenici retires, that race should be competitive.

All three of those seats are very prime targets for Democrats.  Especially if John Edwards were to win the Democratic Nomination for President, that would, imo, put North Carolina and Virginia as toss-ups.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but Warner's here to stay.  I'll bet North Carolina will be close.  In many ways, NC is much like VA.  The urban areas and suburbs around Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham are rapidly growing and increasingly voting Democratic.  If the Democratic candidate is too liberal, however, they could just as easily go Republican. 

And I don't think you're crazy when you talk about a competitive Oklahoma.  In many ways, conservative Democrats already are making things competitive.  I'll bet that Coburn would have lost had 2004 not been a presidential election year.  Carson was really hurt by the fact that Bush won so decisively there.

But I could definitely see a Sen. Henry (D-Okla.) in the future.  Don't give up or get discouraged.

[Deano963]

It looks like we will have no more than eight truly contested Senate races as of right now. That could change if Sens. Ted Stevens (R-AK), Pete Domenici (R-NM), Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) or John Warner (R-VA) choose to retire. The same is true for Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV).

They left out the possibility of Mississippi of Thad Cochran retiring. That race would also become highly competitive, probably even a Democratic-favored race, b/c Mike Moore is more popular and well-known than any Mississippi Republican not named Lott, Cochran or Barbour.

[Sam Spade]

The Democrats have a chance at defeating Senator Dole of North Carolina. Senator Warner of Virginia who has been whining about how he fillibustered his own bill could be vulnerable, or could retire. If Domenici retires, that race should be competitive.

All three of those seats are very prime targets for Democrats.  Especially if John Edwards were to win the Democratic Nomination for President, that would, imo, put North Carolina and Virginia as toss-ups.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but Warner's here to stay.  I'll bet North Carolina will be close.  In many ways, NC is much like VA.  The urban areas and suburbs around Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham are rapidly growing and increasingly voting Democratic.  If the Democratic candidate is too liberal, however, they could just as easily go Republican.

Uh, no.  NC is not VA.  I really can't spot any trend there that is really worth mentioning.

Sure, metro Charlotte and all of Raleigh-Durham have been moving slightly Democrat.  But suburban Charlotte (e.g. the horror of Union County) is certainly not and any movement in Raleigh-Durham is being balanced by other trends, specifically in Southeast NC (home to DINO heaven).

The right kind of Democrat can win NC, that's for sure (because of the number of Democrats).  But the VA trends are really not present in NC, anywhere.

[Kevinstat]

has allen officially announced in Maine?  I havent heard if he did

He hasn't, unless he did in the last few days and I think I would have heard if he had.  One prominent Maine political columnist is playing it up as if he's all but certain to run, but that collumnist's hopes (if Allen runs for reelection instead of against Collins, the 2008 elections for non-Presidential top-ticket offices will be snoozers and not very good fodder for political collumnists) may be affecting his reporting.  Journalists can get away with stretching the truth in collumns more than they can in articles, although it certainly happens in them too I'm sure.

[socaldem]

The Democrats have a chance at defeating Senator Dole of North Carolina. Senator Warner of Virginia who has been whining about how he fillibustered his own bill could be vulnerable, or could retire. If Domenici retires, that race should be competitive.

All three of those seats are very prime targets for Democrats.  Especially if John Edwards were to win the Democratic Nomination for President, that would, imo, put North Carolina and Virginia as toss-ups.

Oh, don't get my hopes up?

Who do you think might run in OK?  The AG?  Young Boren? 

I know there are lots of Brad Carson admirers out there but if you actually saw him speak, he kinda has a charisma deficit.  I think a candidate with a little charisma and a solidly moderate/conservative record could give Inhofe a run for his money.

Also, I'd note that OK's other senator has said and done a lot more to endear himself with OK's populist elements than that stupid, uninspiring, corporate-shill Inhofe.

[Keystone Phil]

3) Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) - Collins is not as popular as Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME), although she is perceived as a moderate.

Not as popular by what...two or three points? Collins' has very, very strong approval ratings.

[HardRCafé]

Who will be the sacrificial lamb against Harkin this time?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hopefully that idiot Steve King.

[7,052,770]

It looks like we will have no more than eight truly contested Senate races as of right now. That could change if Sens. Ted Stevens (R-AK), Pete Domenici (R-NM), Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) or John Warner (R-VA) choose to retire. The same is true for Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV).

They left out the possibility of Mississippi of Thad Cochran retiring. That race would also become highly competitive, probably even a Democratic-favored race, b/c Mike Moore is more popular and well-known than any Mississippi Republican not named Lott, Cochran or Barbour.

Agree.  It's so annoying how everyone ignores this year.  Oh well, everyone will now about it on Election Night 2008 and that's all that matters.

[JSojourner]

3) Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) - Collins is not as popular as Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME), although she is perceived as a moderate.

Not as popular by what...two or three points? Collins' has very, very strong approval ratings.

Phil's right.  Collins is huge in Maine.  Both she and Snowe are political powerhouses there.  Of course, in their own right, Mike Michaud and Tom Allen are too. It helps having very few Congressional districts, I suppose.  But beat Collins?  Probably not.

Of course, if they could somehow merge their campaigns and run as Tom Collins, I'd vote for them.  As long as I got free drinks.

[Soaring Eagle]

3) Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) - Collins is not as popular as Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME), although she is perceived as a moderate.

Not as popular by what...two or three points? Collins' has very, very strong approval ratings.

True, however Collins' election margins have never been anywhere near as big as Snowe's.

[Stranger in a strange land]

3) Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) - Collins is not as popular as Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME), although she is perceived as a moderate.

Not as popular by what...two or three points? Collins' has very, very strong approval ratings.

True, however Collins' election margins have never been anywhere near as big as Snowe's.

Collins and Snowe will both keep getting reelected until they die or retire, but if things stay as they are, both seats will go democratic as soon as they leave.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Who will be the sacrificial lamb against Harkin this time?

If I had to guess I would guess Jim Nussle will be the candidate and I give him a good shot at winning

[Soaring Eagle]

3) Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) - Collins is not as popular as Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME), although she is perceived as a moderate.

Not as popular by what...two or three points? Collins' has very, very strong approval ratings.

True, however Collins' election margins have never been anywhere near as big as Snowe's.

Collins and Snowe will both keep getting reelected until they die or retire, but if things stay as they are, both seats will go democratic as soon as they leave.

I didn't say she would lose.

[Mr.Phips]

Who will be the sacrificial lamb against Harkin this time?

If I had to guess I would guess Jim Nussle will be the candidate and I give him a good shot at winning

Nussle is way too Conservative for the state.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Who will be the sacrificial lamb against Harkin this time?

If I had to guess I would guess Jim Nussle will be the candidate and I give him a good shot at winning

If Nussle couldn't even come close to beating Culver, there is no way he'd beat Harkin.