California post-election analysis thread

[HAnnA MArin County]

So I’ve been able to track down most of the municipal results in California for the 2022 midterm election on my own. I’m only missing cities in Colusa (2: Colusa, Williams), Del Norte (1: Crescent City), Plumas (1: Portola), Tehama (3: Corning, Red Bluff, Tehama), and Tuolumne (1: Sonora) counties, so take these results with a grain of salt as there are still eight cities still outstanding for which I don’t have any results.

First, here's a look at how the cities that flipped from 2016 to 2020 in the presidential elections voted.

Donald J. Trump 2016/Joe Biden 2020 Cities (19)
• Crescent City (Trump+ 01.46, Biden+ 02.20)
o   CA-GOV: No data available
o   CA-SEN: No data available
 
• Placerville (Trump+ 00.07, Biden+ 05.19)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 2,156 (53.27%) — Newsom 1,891 (46.73%) = R+ 06.54
o   CA-SEN: Padilla 2,006 (50.39%) — Meuser 1,975 (49.61%) = D+ 00.78

• Bradbury (Trump+ 00.79, Biden+ 04.80)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 184 (58.97%) — Newsom 128 (41.03%) = R+ 17.94
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 178 (57.05%) — Padilla 134 (42.95%) = R+ 14.10

• La Verne (Trump+ 00.70, Biden+ 03.01)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 6,752 (54.53%) — Newsom 5,631 (45.47%) = R+ 09.06
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 6,428 (51.94%) — Padilla 5,949 (48.06%) = R+ 03.88

• Brea (Trump+ 03.62, Biden+ 02.98)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 9,057 (55.65%) — Newsom 7,219 (44.35%) = R+ 11.30
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 8,835 (53.88%) — Padilla 7,564 (46.12%) = R+ 07.76

• Laguna Hills (Trump+ 01.36, Biden+ 05.85)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 6,267 (52.92%) — Newsom 5,575 (47.08%) = R+ 05.84
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 6,234 (51.97%) — Padilla 5,761 (48.03%) = R+ 03.94

• Laguna Niguel (Trump+ 01.72, Biden+ 04.70)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 14,969 (53.27%) — Newsom 13,129 (46.73%) = R+ 06.54
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 14,868 (51.94%) — Padilla 13,760 (48.06%) = R+ 03.88

• Lake Forest (Trump+ 00.76, Biden+ 06.98)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 15,471 (51.80%) — Newsom 14,393 (48.20%) = R+ 03.60
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 15,360 (50.76%) — Padilla 14,901 (49.24%) = R+ 01.52
 
• Mission Viejo (Trump+ 05.97, Biden+ 01.98)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 21,916 (54.93%) — Newsom 17,984 (45.07%) = R+ 08.96
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 21,549 (53.27%) — Padilla 18,906 (46.73%) = R+ 06.54
 
• Banning (Trump+ 02.95, Biden+ 02.43)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 4,550 (54.02%) — Newsom 3,873 (45.98%) = R+ 08.04
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 4,318 (52.25%) — Padilla 3,946 (47.75%) = R+ 04.50
   
• Hemet (Trump+ 08.86, Biden+ 00.45)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 10,931 (54.49%) — Newsom 9,131 (45.51%) = R+ 08.98
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 10,503 (53.30%) — Padilla 9,203 (46.70%) = R+ 06.60

• La Quinta (Trump+ 06.66, Biden+ 01.95)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 8,313 (53.58%) — Newsom 7,201 (46.42%) = R+ 07.16
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 8,012 (52.48%) — Padilla 7,254 (47.52%) = R+ 04.96

• Lake Elsinore (Trump+ 02.19, Biden+ 01.32)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 8,102 (55.45%) — Newsom 6,509 (44.55%) = R+ 10.90
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 7,709 (53.68%) — Padilla 6,652 (46.32%) = R+ 07.36

• Palm Desert (Trump+ 02.00, Biden+ 07.60)
o   CA-GOV: Newsom 10,547 (51.84%) — Dahle 9,799 (48.16%) = D+ 03.68
o   CA-SEN: Padilla 10,564 (52.76%) — Meuser 9,460 (47.24%) = D+ 05.52

• Coronado (Trump+ 02.14, Biden+ 07.26)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 3,996 (53.11%) — Newsom 3,528 (46.89%) = R+ 06.22
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 3,862 (51.70%) — Padilla 3,608 (48.30%) = R+ 03.40

• Poway (Trump+ 04.55, Biden+ 04.58)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 11,072 (53.25%) — Newsom 9,721 (46.75%) = R+ 06.50
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 10,512 (51.28%) — Padilla 9,986 (48.72%) = R+ 02.56

• Atascadero (Trump+ 04.17, Biden+ 01.50)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 7,246 (54.49%) — Newsom 6,052 (45.51%) = R+ 08.98
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 6,837 (52.11%) — Padilla 6,283 (47.89%) = R+ 04.22

• Solvang (Trump+ 01.18, Biden+ 08.86)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 1,393 (51.50%) — Newsom 1,312 (48.50%) = R+ 03.00
o   CA-SEN: Padilla 1,344 (50.22%) — Meuser 1,332 (49.78%) = D+ 00.44

• Simi Valley (Trump+ 04.02, Biden+ 00.89)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 26,224 (54.90%) — Newsom 21,542 (45.10%) = R+ 09.80
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 25,186 (53.52%) — Padilla 21,869 (46.48%) = R+ 07.04

Hillary Rodham Clinton 2016/Donald J. Trump 2020 Cities (3)
• Fountain Valley (Clinton+ 00.31, Trump+ 03.87)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 11,510 (54.53%) — Newsom 9,598 (45.47%) = R+ 09.06
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 11,704 (54.69%) — Padilla 9,695 (45.31%) = R+ 09.38

• Westminster (Clinton+ 15.37, Trump+ 09.15)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 13,100 (53.74%) — Newsom 11,278 (46.26%) = R+ 07.48
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 13,630 (55.68%) — Padilla 10,851 (44.32%) = R+ 11.36

• Porterville (Clinton+ 01.59, Trump+ 00.33)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 5,455 (57.77%) — Newsom 3,987 (42.23%) = R+ 15.54
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 5,205 (55.47%) — Padilla 4,178 (44.53%) = R+ 10.94

Secondly, here are some red-to-blue and blue-to-red (flipped) cities in the gubernatorial election between incumbent Gov. Gavin C. Newsom (D) and State Senator Brian D. Dahle (R). I also have municipal results for all of the other statewide races (Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, State Controller, State Treasurer, Attorney General, State Insurance Commissioner, and U.S. Senator) if anyone is interested in seeing any of those (will try to promptly respond to as many individual requests as I get for those). I also have individual city results for all of the U.S. House races by the new congressional districts.

Newsom 2018/Dahle 2022 (24)
Fresno: Fowler
Humboldt: Ferndale
Imperial: Imperial
Kern: Wasco
Kings: Corcoran
Lake: Lakeport
Los Angeles: La Mirada
Madera: Madera
Orange: Garden Grove
Riverside: Eastvale, Jurupa Valley, San Jacinto
San Bernardino: Chino, Highland
San Diego: Escondido
San Joaquin: Manteca
Santa Barbara: Santa Maria
Siskiyou: Weed
Stanislaus: Modesto, Newman, Riverbank
Sutter: Live Oak
Tulare: Dinuba
Ventura: Moorpark

Cox 2018/Newsom 2022 (4)
Los Angeles: San Marino
Riverside: Palm Desert
San Luis Obispo: Arroyo Grande
Ventura: Camarillo

2018-2022 swings by city coming up next.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Here are the top 10 (so far) swings from 2018-2022 with racial demographics, median household income, and percentages of those who have a bachelor’s degree or higher:

Largest Democratic Swings
• Nevada City [81.25% Non-Hispanic White] {MHI $53,534} (36.2% BD+)
o   2018: Newsom 3,738 (66.69%) — Cox 1,867 (33.31%) = D+ 33.38
o   2022: Newsom 1,315 (75.06%) — Dahle 437 (24.94%) = D+ 50.12
•   SWING: D+ 16.74

• Amador [79.00% Non-Hispanic White] {MHI $58,000} (35.3% BD+)
o   2018: Newsom 66 (58.93%) — Cox 46 (41.07%) = D+ 17.86
o   2022: Newsom 80 (67.23%) — Dahle 39 (32.77%) = D+ 34.46
•   SWING: D+ 16.60

• Rancho Mirage [76.66% Non-Hispanic White] {MHI $95,158} (44.3% BD+)
o   2018: Newsom 4,470 (53.29%) — Cox 3,918 (46.71%) = D+ 06.58
o   2022: Newsom 5,933 (60.47%) — Dahle 3,878 (39.53%) = D+ 20.94
•   SWING: D+ 14.36

• Palm Springs [62.21% Non-Hispanic White] {MHI $61,597} (43.0% BD+)
o   2018: Newsom 15,180 (76.16%) — Cox 4,752 (23.84%) = D+ 52.32
o   2022: Newsom 16,238 (80.78%) — Dahle 3,863 (19.22%) = D+ 61.56
•   SWING: D+ 09.24

• Moraga [61.89% Non-Hispanic White] {MHI $167,784} (77.2% BD+)
o   2018: Newsom 5,655 (66.55%) — Cox 2,842 (33.45%) = D+ 33.10
o   2022: Newsom 5,606 (71.05%) — Dahle 2,284 (28.95%) = D+ 42.10
•   SWING: D+ 09.00

• Indian Wells [86.92% Non-Hispanic White] {MHI $120,680} (54.8% BD+)
o   2018: Cox 1,620 (67.98%) — Newsom 763 (32.02%) = R+ 35.96
o   2022: Dahle 1,589 (63.53%) — Newsom 912 (36.47%) = R+ 27.06
•   SWING: D+ 08.90
 
• Twenty-nine Palms [50.04% Non-Hispanic White] {MHI $46,887} (23.9% BD+)
o   2018: Cox 2,043 (58.37%) — Newsom 1,457 (41.63%) = R+ 16.74
o   2022: Dahle 1,741 (54.19%) — Newsom 1,472 (45.81%) = R+ 08.38
•   SWING: D+ 08.36
 
• Rio Vista [63.91% Non-Hispanic White] {MHI $76,423} (38.3% BD+)
o   2018: Newsom 2,690 (53.56%) — Cox 2,332 (46.44%) = D+ 07.12
o   2022: Newsom 3,062 (57.70%) — Dahle 2,245 (42.30%) = D+ 15.40
•   SWING: D+ 08.28
 
• Laguna Woods [69.18% Non-Hispanic White] {MHI $53,076} (51.5% BD+)
o   2018: Newsom 5,841 (51.44%) — Cox 5,513 (48.56%) = D+ 02.88
o   2022: Newsom 6,125 (55.52%) — Dahle 4,907 (44.48%) = D+ 11.04
•   SWING: D+ 08.16
 
• Sand City [50.46% Non-Hispanic White] {MHI $60,682} (39.0% BD+)
o   2018: Newsom 83 (61.48%) — Cox 52 (38.52%) = D+ 22.96
o   2022: Newsom 86 (64.66%) — Dahle 47 (35.34%) = D+ 29.32
•   SWING: D+ 06.36
 
• Pacific Grove [70.64% Non-Hispanic White] {MHI $92,980} (55.4% BD+)
o   2018: Newsom 5,638 (71.96%) — Cox 2,197 (28.04%) = D+ 43.92
o   2022: Newsom 5,445 (75.08%) — Dahle 1,807 (24.92%) = D+ 50.16
•   SWING: D+ 06.24

Largest Republican Swings
• Livingston [70.11% Hispanic/Latino] {MHI $68,958} (8.6% BD+)
o   2018: Newsom 2,003 (73.45%) — Cox 724 (26.55%) = D+ 46.90
o   2022: Newsom 1,445 (60.74%) — Dahle 934 (39.26%) = D+ 21.48
•   SWING: R+ 25.42
 
• Weed [57.72% Non-Hispanic White] {MHI $28,857} (11.1% BD+)
o   2018: Newsom 384 (54.31%) — Cox 323 (45.69%) = D+ 08.62
o   2022: Dahle 372 (58.31%) — Newsom 266 (41.69%) = R+ 16.62
•   SWING: R+ 25.24
 
• McFarland [94.99% Hispanic/Latino] {MHI $38,651} (3.7% BD+)
o   2018: Newsom 1,130 (70.32%) — Cox 477 (29.68%) = D+ 40.64
o   2022: Newsom 843 (58.70%) — Dahle 593 (41.30%) = D+ 17.40
•   SWING: R+ 23.24

• Gonzales [91.88% Hispanic/Latino] {MHI $73,906} (6.2% BD+)
o   2018: Newsom 1,229 (75.08%) — Cox 408 (24.92%) = D+ 50.16
o   2022: Newsom 861 (63.97%) — Dahle 485 (36.03%) = D+ 27.94
•   SWING: R+ 22.22
 
• Irwindale [90.76% Hispanic/Latino] {MHI $96,250} (21.0% BD+)
o   2018: Newsom 354 (74.37%) — Cox 122 (25.63%) = D+ 48.74
o   2022: Newsom 342 (63.33%) — Dahle 198 (36.67%) = D+ 26.66
•   SWING: R+ 22.08
 
• Farmersville [87.93% Hispanic/Latino] {MHI $48,262} (4.7% BD+)
o   2018: Newsom 1,018 (68.46%) — Cox 469 (31.54%) = D+ 36.92
o   2022: Newsom 698 (57.50%) — Dahle 516 (42.50%) = D+ 15.00
•   SWING: R+ 21.92
 
• Ceres [64.14% Hispanic/Latino] {MHI $64,153} (10.7% BD+)
o   2018: Newsom 7,003 (60.93%) — Cox 4,491 (39.07%) = D+ 21.86
o   2022: Newsom 4,365 (50.02%) — Dahle 4,362 (49.98%) = D+ 00.04
•   SWING: R+ 21.82
 
• Orange Cove [94.92% Hispanic/Latino] {MHI $28,626} (4.5% BD+)
o   2018: Newsom 968 (75.86%) — Cox 308 (24.14%) = D+ 51.72
o   2022: Newsom 624 (65.20%) — Dahle 333 (34.80%) = D+ 30.40
•   SWING: R+ 21.32
 
• Loyalton [76.08% Non-Hispanic White] {MHI $79,185} (19.6% BD+)
o   2018: Cox 196 (61.64%) — Newsom 122 (38.36%) = R+ 23.28
o   2022: Dahle 223 (72.17%) — Newsom 86 (27.83%) = R+ 44.34
•   SWING: R+ 21.06
 
• Live Oak [49.51% Hispanic/Latino] {MHI $62,974} (13.6% BD+)
o   2018: Newsom 1,000 (50.86%) — Cox 966 (49.14%) = D+ 01.72
o   2022: Dahle 1,246 (59.50%) — Newsom 848 (40.50%) = R+ 19.00
•   SWING: R+ 20.72

Note: I’m a little perplexed at Nevada City, simply due to the dramatic decrease in votes cast from 2018 to 2022. I’m not sure what’s to account for that, but the total votes cast in the 2021 recall vote in the city align much more closely to the number of votes cast in 2022 versus 2018.

Prop 1 results coming up next.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Proposition 1 (Constitutional Right to Reproductive Freedom)
Highest YES %s
• Berkeley (95.59%)
• Emeryville (93.54%)
• Albany (93.20%)
• Oakland (92.81%)
• Point Arena (92.54%)
• Fairfax (92.18%)
• Mill Valley (91.98)
• El Cerrito (91.32%)
• West Hollywood (91.25%)
• Piedmont (90.33%)

Highest NO %s
• Taft (67.67%)
• Kingsburg (67.02%)
• Dorris (65.73%)
• Maricopa (62.79%)
• Ripon (62.27%)
• Canyon Lake (61.11%)
• Norco (61.05%)
• Exeter (59.51%)
• Yucaipa (58.91%)
• Escalon, Tulelake (58.72%)

Brian Dahle (R)/Yes Prop 1 Counties (20)
• Lake (Yes 62.40%, Dahle 51.46%)
• Inyo (Yes 59.34%, Dahle 54.77%)
• Trinity (Yes 59.27%, Dahle 58.91%)
• Butte (Yes 59.01%. Dahle 56.51%)
• San Joaquin (Yes 58.22%, Dahle 51.78%)
• Orange (Yes 57.16%, Dahle 51.49%)
• Riverside (Yes 56.50%, Dahle 52.17%)
• Placer (Yes 54.85%, Dahle 59.57%)
• El Dorado (Yes 54.13%, Dahle 61.05%)
• Plumas (Yes 53.82%, Dahle 64.29%)
• Fresno (Yes 53.44%, Dahle 55.08%)
• Merced (Yes 53.43%, Dahle 54.41%)
• San Bernardino (Yes 53.40%, Dahle 52.61%)
• Siskiyou (Yes 52.73%, Dahle 64.31%)
• Del Norte (Yes 51.52%, Dahle 61.03%)
• Sierra (Yes 51.24%, Dahle 65.72%)
• Tuolumne (Yes 51.15%, Dahle 63.53%)
• Mariposa (Yes 50.99%, Dahle 62.45%)
• Stanislaus (Yes 50.98%, Dahle 57.77%)
• Calaveras (Yes 50.64%, Dahle 66.56%)

No counties that voted for Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) voted no on Prop 1. Only one city (Holtville, Imperial County) that voted for Newsom voted no on Prop 1 (Newsom 52.06%, No 50.04%).

Brian Dahle (R)/Yes Prop 1 Cities (110)
I won’t list all 110 of them but I’ll list the top 25 and the bottom 10.

• Ferndale (Yes 64.45%, Dahle 52.48%)
• Palos Verdes Estates (Yes 63.47%, Dahle 52.74%)
• Folsom (Yes 63.22%, Dahle 52.32%)
• Lakeport (Yes 62.82%, Dahle 50.45%)
• Rolling Hills Estates (Yes 61.51%, Dahle 51.76%)
• Solvang (Yes 61.11%, Dahle 51.50%)
• La Quinta (Yes 60.98%, Dahle 53.58%)
• Buellton (Yes 60.88%, Dahle 50.74%)
• Pismo Beach (Yes 60.29%, Dahle 51.27%)
• Moorpark (Yes 60.12%, Dahle 50.33%)
• Coronado (Yes 59.87%, Dahle 53.11%)
• Placerville (Yes 59.78%, Dahle 53.27%)
• Fortuna (Yes 59.44%, Dahle 59.48%)
• Seal Beach (Yes 59.43%, Dahle 50.97%)
• Vacaville (Yes 59.19%, Dahle 53.63%)
• Lompoc (Yes 59.09%, Dahle 51.24%)
• Auburn (Yes 58.91%, Dahle 53.29%)
• Weed (Yes 58.91%, Dahle 58.31%)
• Santa Clarita (Yes 58.54%, Dahle 52.09%)
• Citrus Heights (Yes 58.49%, Dahle 56.69%)
• Manteca (Yes 58.22%, Dahle 53.16%)
• Twenty-nine Palms (Yes 58.17%, Dahle 54.19%)
• Poway (Yes 58.09%, Dahle 53.25%)
• Laguna Niguel (Yes 57.79%, Dahle 53.27%)
• Bradbury (Yes 57.74%, Dahle 58.97%)
• Lake Forest (Yes 57.45%, Dahle 51.80%)
. . . . . .
• Gridley (Yes 50.98%, Dahle 63.67%)
• Porterville (Yes 50.96%, Dahle 57.77%)
• Wasco (Yes 50.88%, Dahle 50.45%)
• Lodi (Yes 50.72%, Dahle 63.12%)
• Chino Hills (Yes 50.51%, Dahle 54.88%)
• Dos Palos (Yes 50.50%, Dahle 53.85%)
• Gustine (Yes 50.49%, Dahle 57.84%)
• Riverbank (Yes 50.35%, Dahle 58.07%)
• Imperial (Yes 50.29%, Dahle 54.64%)
• Bakersfield (Yes 50.11%, Dahle 59.93%)

Lowest Yes % in Cities Won By Gavin Newsom (D)
• Farmersville (Yes 56.48%, Newsom 57.50%)
• Kerman (Yes 56.04%, Newsom 50.31%)
• Ceres (Yes 55.85%, Newsom 50.02%)
• Sanger (Yes 55.55%, Newsom 52.93%)
• Westmorland (Yes 55.18%, Newsom 61.31%)
• La Habra (Yes 55.00%, Newsom 50.08%)
• El Centro (Yes 54.03%, Newsom 57.21%)
• Brawley (Yes 52.82%, Newsom 53.17%)
• Selma (Yes 52.47%, Newsom 50.46%)
• McFarland (Yes 51.93%, Newsom 58.70%)

[HAnnA MArin County]

How'd Biden do in Camarillo? I'm kinda surprised it flipped this year, grandpa on my mom's side lived there till he passed, whenever I visited it definitely gave country club republican vibes.

Here are the results for Camarillo for 2012, 2016, and 2020.

CAMARILLO
2012 (R+ 06.30)
Romney 16,795 (52.08%)
Obama 14,762 (45.78%)
Johnson 367 (1.14%)
Stein 143 (0.44%)
Hoefling 99 (0.31%)
Roseanne 80 (0.25%)

2016 (D+ 04.32)
Clinton 16,239 (47.65%)
Trump 14,764 (43.33%)
Johnson 1,559 (4.57%)
Write-ins 896 (2.63%)
Stein 507 (1.49%)
La Riva 112 (0.33%)

2020 (D+ 09.79)
Biden 22,269 (53.79%)
Trump 18,214 (44.00%)
Jorgensen 556 (1.34%)
Hawkins 153 (0.37%)
De La Fuente 117 (0.28%)
La Riva 74 (0.18%)
Write-ins 14 (0.03%)