California post-election analysis thread

[Aurelius]

Merced and Amador counties, and possibly others, have certified their 2022 election results. I'll be doing some analysis as the totals roll in, mostly comparing 2022 to past results at the city and county level. Others are welcome to join in, of course.

In 2018 Amador voted for Cox 64.5% - Newsom 35.5%. In 2022 Amador voted for Dahle 67.7% - Newsom 32.3%. That's a margin trend of 6.4% rightward.

In 2018 Merced voted for Newsom 52.0% - Cox 48.0%. In 2022 Merced flipped, voting for Dahle 54.4% - Newsom 45.6%. That's a margin trend of 12.8% rightward.

The final votes statewide aren't in yet, but Dahle will finish with 40-41% of the vote, for a 2-3% vote share improvement over Cox and a rightward margin trend of 4-6%.

Neither of the above counties has yet released a SOVC in a user-friendly format where city-level results are tabulated for you. I might do some poking around with precinct results anyway. Some counties release horribly messy SOVCs (looking at you, Imperial) and you just have to wait for the final statewide report to get their city-level data.

I'm especially interested to see the remaining vote out of my own SLO county. Either there's a big redshift in the outstanding vote or it trended in the reverse direction of the rest of the state for some reason.

[Thunder98]

Santa Barbara County voted exactly like the statewide margin in all statewide races.

[Aurelius]

Madera County has posted final results. Dahle wins 64.1% to Newsom's 35.9%. In 2018 Cox won 61.0% to Newsom's 39.0%. 6.2% margin swing rightward. No SOVC yet that I can see.

In 2018 the Madera raw votes were 23488 R - 15037 D for a margin of 8,451. In 2022 Madera raw votes were 23678 R - 13283 D for a margin of 10,395.

[Spectator]

Really wanna see Gov and Sen by House district to see how sh**tty Newsom and Padilla did.

[Aurelius]

Really wanna see Gov and Sen by House district to see how sh**tty Newsom and Padilla did.

I can't remember whether the state's final Statement of Votes Cast includes congressional district breakdowns for statewide races. If not we'll have to wait for the data nerds to do their thing.

[Aurelius]

An example of the kind of data I'm looking forward to seeing is on page 5 of this very large PDF.

[lfromnj]

Also decided to see how Chen did, seems like he really did improve his post primary vote share by a decent amount. Currently losing by a tad under 11. Basically there seems to be little no overperformance of Dahle in Inland counties but he did improve in coastal/bay area counties .  The biggest overperformance of Dahle seems to be actually San Francisco where he nearly doubled Dahle's vote share from 14.6 to 24.1.  He still overperformed in Coastal Socal by a few points but not by much.

There's a scattering of SF precicnts in the SW and SE which are the most Asian along with the Marina* district where Chen got to the lower 40's.

Marina district is basically the upper east side of San Francisco. Rich white and ancestrally R to a degree.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Also decided to see how Chen did, seems like he really did improve his post primary vote share by a decent amount. Currently losing by a tad under 11. Basically there seems to be little no overperformance of Dahle in Inland counties but he did improve in coastal/bay area counties .  The biggest overperformance of Dahle seems to be actually San Francisco where he nearly doubled Dahle's vote share from 14.6 to 24.1.  He still overperformed in Coastal Socal by a few points but not by much.

There's a scattering of SF precicnts in the SW and SE which are the most Asian along with the Marina district where Chen got to the lower 40's.

I remember hearing the argument that people should vote for Chen because it's better to have a member of the opposite party in a non-policy setting auditing role. No idea how many votes that swayed but it's food for thought.

[Spectator]

Also decided to see how Chen did, seems like he really did improve his post primary vote share by a decent amount. Currently losing by a tad under 11. Basically there seems to be little no overperformance of Dahle in Inland counties but he did improve in coastal/bay area counties .  The biggest overperformance of Dahle seems to be actually San Francisco where he nearly doubled Dahle's vote share from 14.6 to 24.1.  He still overperformed in Coastal Socal by a few points but not by much.

There's a scattering of SF precicnts in the SW and SE which are the most Asian along with the Marina district where Chen got to the lower 40's.

I remember hearing the argument that people should vote for Chen because it's better to have a member of the opposite party in a non-policy setting auditing role. No idea how many votes that swayed but it's food for thought.

That is a really bizarre argument. How is the minority party supposed to be auditing/holding accountable the majority in the House? The House is simply not set up that way.

[lfromnj]

Also decided to see how Chen did, seems like he really did improve his post primary vote share by a decent amount. Currently losing by a tad under 11. Basically there seems to be little no overperformance of Dahle in Inland counties but he did improve in coastal/bay area counties .  The biggest overperformance of Dahle seems to be actually San Francisco where he nearly doubled Dahle's vote share from 14.6 to 24.1.  He still overperformed in Coastal Socal by a few points but not by much.

There's a scattering of SF precicnts in the SW and SE which are the most Asian along with the Marina district where Chen got to the lower 40's.

I remember hearing the argument that people should vote for Chen because it's better to have a member of the opposite party in a non-policy setting auditing role. No idea how many votes that swayed but it's food for thought.

That is a really bizarre argument. How is the minority party supposed to be auditing/holding accountable the majority in the House? The House is simply not set up that way.

Lanhee Chen ran for state controller . Its a pretty decent argument and Chen did win every newspaper endorsement . Iirc the Dem was of fairly poor quality as well.

[Spectator]

Also decided to see how Chen did, seems like he really did improve his post primary vote share by a decent amount. Currently losing by a tad under 11. Basically there seems to be little no overperformance of Dahle in Inland counties but he did improve in coastal/bay area counties .  The biggest overperformance of Dahle seems to be actually San Francisco where he nearly doubled Dahle's vote share from 14.6 to 24.1.  He still overperformed in Coastal Socal by a few points but not by much.

There's a scattering of SF precicnts in the SW and SE which are the most Asian along with the Marina district where Chen got to the lower 40's.

I remember hearing the argument that people should vote for Chen because it's better to have a member of the opposite party in a non-policy setting auditing role. No idea how many votes that swayed but it's food for thought.

That is a really bizarre argument. How is the minority party supposed to be auditing/holding accountable the majority in the House? The House is simply not set up that way.

Lanhee Chen ran for state controller . Its a pretty decent argument and Chen did win every newspaper endorsement . Iirc the Dem was of fairly poor quality as well.

Oh my bad I was thinking of CA-45

[Skill and Chance]

Looking at the late vote in the VBM states;

In AZ, the 2022 late reported vote moved R as expected, but only marginally compared to 2020.  The senate race never got particularly close and Hobbs kept an early lead that I believe was narrower than Biden's.

In CA, it looks like the late reported  vote moved D, but only slightly.  I remember Newsom having about 58% at the end of counting on election night and now he has about 59%.  This is quite distinct from the dramatic r trend with the late vote in 2020, but also nothing like the dramatic Dem trend in 2018.  In the 2021 recall, the late vote also moved R, but less so than in 2020.  CA went all VBM in 2020.

In CO, i think the late reported vote moved slightly R.  Boebert took back a lead late, for example.

The late reported vote moved dramatically Dem in NV, which was consistent with 2020.  Trump was within 1% after the last election night update.  NV went all VBM in 2020.

OR and WA look like they might have gotten slightly more Dem over time?

In UT, McMullin improved notably with the late reported vote. 

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Looking at the late vote in the VBM states;

In AZ, the 2022 late reported vote moved R as expected, but only marginally compared to 2020.  The senate race never got particularly close and Hobbs kept an early lead that I believe was narrower than Biden's.

In CA, it looks like the late reported  vote moved D, but only slightly.  I remember Newsom having about 58% at the end of counting on election night and now he has about 59%.  This is quite distinct from the dramatic r trend with the late vote in 2020, but also nothing like the dramatic Dem trend in 2018.  In the 2021 recall, the late vote also moved R, but less so than in 2020.  CA went all VBM in 2020.

In CO, i think the late reported vote moved slightly R.  Boebert took back a lead late, for example.

The late reported vote moved dramatically Dem in NV, which was consistent with 2020.  Trump was within 1% after the last election night update.  NV went all VBM in 2020.

OR and WA look like they might have gotten slightly more Dem over time?

In UT, McMullin improved notably with the late reported vote. 

No, Hobbs won that first Maricopa ballot drop by 16%, Kelly by 20%. In 2020 it was Biden+10.

[jamestroll]

What is your take on the Orange County, CA results?

[Sir Mohamed]

Major issue was some sort of lackluster turnout. It's lower than it was during the 2021 recall. That's also why Newsom narrowly lost Orange and San Bernardino Counties, which he got in 2018.

[Aurelius]

Big vote dump out of SLO County last night, taking it from 74% reported to 89% reported. Bruce Jones now trails Bruce Gibson in the supervisorial race by only 37 votes - before this vote dump he was trailing by a few percentage points. A virtual tie with ~9,000 votes still outstanding. The votes contained a substantial redshift overall, taking Dahle's share from 47% to 49%. I doubt the remaining votes are enough to close the 2,700+ vote gap still remaining, but we'll soon find out.

After the vote dump, SLO has no longer swung leftward from 2018 gov, but it's still much smaller than the rightward swing in most of the rest of the state. There may be more redshift hiding in the last 9k ballots, but even if not, this wouldn't necessarily be surprising. SLO County is the whitest county in Southern California and one of the whiter parts of CA.

[Aurelius]

What is your take on the Orange County, CA results?

1. There are a lot of ancestral Republicans in California, especially in places like Orange County. Downballot Republicans consistently overperform Republican candidates for President and Senate. This gives Republicans a higher floor than in presidential races. (Thus when redistricting it's more useful to look at the 2018 gov numbers than the 2020 prez numbers)
2. 2018 was probably the high water mark for Dems in California. Tons of white suburbanites had fled the GOP already, accelerating from 2016-18, and Hispanic and Asian trends in the opposite direction hadn't really started yet. This, plus some dead-cat-bounce suburban reversion, probably explains the swing from 2018 to 2022. I predict that if the Republicans nominate DeSantis in 2024, he'll get around 37-38% of the vote in California, compared to Trump's 32% and 35%. Trump is harder to predict because it's hard to say how insane he'll be the next few years.

[Aurelius]

Mono County has certified. Newsom defeated Dahle 54.5% to 45.5%, for a 9.0% margin. In 2018 Newsom defeated Cox 55.8% to 44.2% for an 11.6% margin. That's a 2.6% margin swing rightward, which will almost certainly be a smaller rightward swing than the state as a whole, for a leftward trend. However, I can't calculate trends until the state as a whole certifies - there are still a quarter million ballots remaining statewide.

Mono County helpfully broke out the results for their only incorporated municipality, Mammoth Lakes. Newsom beat Dahle 63.2 to 36.8%, for a 26.4% margin. In 2018 Newsom beat Cox 63.9% to 36.1%, for a 27.8% margin. This is only a 1.4% margin swing rightward from 2018 to 2022. Again, almost certainly a leftward trend. Not surprising that a very white tourist town trended leftward compared to the state.

Inyo County also certified. For the county as a whole, Dahle defeated Newsom 54.8% - 45.2%, for a 9.6% margin.  In 2018 Cox defeated Newsom 55.3% to 44.7%, for a 10.6% margin. Thus Inyo County had a 1.0% leftward margin swing, and its leftward trend will be larger once the statewide numbers are finalized. This suggests Inyo's leftward lurch in the 2020 election is here to stay. Like Mono, Inyo is heavily dependent on tourism, but it's much less white.

However, they didn't provide a breakdown by city in the SOVC, so I'll have to calculate the swing for Bishop by manually adding precincts together. That won't happen until I'm back from Thanksgiving travel.

[oldtimer]

I like to judge how things go in California based on just 3 counties.

Imperial County, most hispanic in California.

2022 Gov: Rep 44%
2021 Gov Recall: Rep 40%
2018 Gov: Rep 38 %
2014 Gov: Rep 36%

Santa Clara County, Silicon Valley.

2022 Gov: Rep 30%
2021 Gov Recall: Rep 27%
2018 Gov: Rep 29%
2014 Gov: Rep 27%


Ventura County, typical Los Angeles suburb.

2022 Gov: Rep 45%
2021 Gov Recall: Rep 43%
2018 Gov: Rep 44%
2014 Gov: Rep 47%

This tells me that Republicans have a slow but steady gain among California minorities, and Democrats may have stalled with California whites but with good leads.

The kick is Los Angeles is a larger share of the California vote than 8 years ago, so Democrats get more votes from same margins, cancelling most of the Republican gains in other areas of the state.

[Aurelius]

Merced County breakdown by municipality. I calculated this in a spreadsheet based on raw vote totals, rounding may result in percentages not adding up perfectly.

Atwater - 57.1% Dahle, 42.9% Newsom. 14.2% R margin. 2018: 51.9% Cox, 48.1% Newsom. 3.8% R margin. 10.4% rightward margin swing.
Dos Palos - 53.8% Dahle, 46.2% Newsom. 7.7% R margin. 2018: 51.4% Cox, 48.6% Newsom. 2.7% R margin. 5.0% rightward margin swing.
Gustine - 57.8% Dahle, 42.2% Newsom. 15.7% R margin. 2018: 51.9% Cox, 48.1% Newsom. 3.8% R margin. 11.9% rightward margin swing.
Livingston: 60.7% Newsom, 39.3% Dahle. 21.5% D margin. 2018: 73.5% Newsom, 26.5% Cox. 46.9% D margin. 25.4% (!!) rightward margin swing.
Los Banos: 53.1% Newsom, 46.9% Dahle. 6.1% D margin. 2018: 58.3% Newsom, 41.7% Cox. 16.7% D margin. 10.6% rightward margin swing.
Merced: 53.9% Newsom, 46.1% Dahle. 7.9% D margin. 2018; 58.3% Newsom, 41.7% Cox. 16.5% D margin. 8.7% rightward margin swing.
Unincorporated - 65.9% Dahle, 34.1% Newsom. 31.9% R margin. 2018: 57.6% Cox, 42.4% Newsom. 15.2% R margin. 16.7% rightward margin swing.

[Canis]

Here are the main reasons Newsom and the statewide ticket underperformed compared to 2018 and the recall. IMO

Turnout was lower because Dems weren't super motivated this year, in 2021 Elder scared Dems badly and made voters who disapproved of Newsom but weren't willing to vote for an extremist like elder show up and vote against the recall. In 2018 Dems were hyper-motivated by Trump being elected and all D's got a significant boost from voters who typically wouldn't vote D down-ballot not wanting to support GOP candidates.

Another reason is Newsom barely campaigned at all this year, Dahle was not perceived as a threat (rightly) due to his low fundraising and polling numbers. Gavin didn't start campaigning and attacking Dahle till the very last minute of the election. When he did so, he did a great job painting Dahle as an extremist and showing what a disaster of a governor he would be in the debate. But it was too little too late Dahle was just perceived as generic R and a lot of those voters who disapproved of Newsom but flipped to No on the recall when Elder became the frontrunner felt comfortable not voting or voting for Dahle as a protest vote.

[Fancyarcher]

Here are the main reasons Newsom IMO and the statewide ticket underperformed compared to 2018 and the recall.

Turnout was lower because Dems weren't super motivated this year, in 2021 Elder scared Dems badley and made voters who disapproved of Newsom but weren't willing to vote for an extremist like elder show up and vote against the recall. In 2018 Dems were hyper-motivated by Trump being elected and all D's got a significant boost from voters who typically wouldn't vote D down-ballot not wanting to support GOP candidates.

Another reason is Newsom barely campaigned at all this year, Dahle was not perceived as a threat (rightly) due to his low fundraising and polling numbers. Gavin didn't start campaigning and attacking Dahle till the very last minute of the election. When he did so, he did a great job painting Dahle as an extremist and showing what a disaster of a governor he would be in the debate. But it was too little too late Dahle was just perceived as generic R and a lot of those voters who disapproved of Newsom but flipped to No on the recall when Elder became the frontrunner felt comfortable not voting or voting for Dahle as a protest vote.  d

This is a good reading. I feel like the few people thinking this midterm means that California is somehow trending "red" (wait what?), are thinking wrong, because turnout was kind of abysmal especially compared to 2018 or the recall. Of course there might be pockets that are trending GOP, but I don't feel like the GOP is flipping any counties in 2024 for example, especially with Trump on the ballot.

[Kamala's side hoe]

What is your take on the Orange County, CA results?

1. There are a lot of ancestral Republicans in California, especially in places like Orange County. Downballot Republicans consistently overperform Republican candidates for President and Senate. This gives Republicans a higher floor than in presidential races. (Thus when redistricting it's more useful to look at the 2018 gov numbers than the 2020 prez numbers)
2. 2018 was probably the high water mark for Dems in California. Tons of white suburbanites had fled the GOP already, accelerating from 2016-18, and Hispanic and Asian trends in the opposite direction hadn't really started yet. This, plus some dead-cat-bounce suburban reversion, probably explains the swing from 2018 to 2022. I predict that if the Republicans nominate DeSantis in 2024, he'll get around 37-38% of the vote in California, compared to Trump's 32% and 35%. Trump is harder to predict because it's hard to say how insane he'll be the next few years.

1 should be fairly obvious to the kind of person who'd be on Atlas, especially if they're 🇺🇸.

Agree with 2 given the domestic population decline we've seen in CA in the last several years (thankful for Abdullah and his PG&D threads on this topic!) I definitely buy the hot take that demographically more D-favoring segments of the Latino and Asian CVAP would be more inclined to move out of the state; this is probably starting to show up in Southland voting trends.

[Sbane]

Really wanna see Gov and Sen by House district to see how sh**tty Newsom and Padilla did.

I can't remember whether the state's final Statement of Votes Cast includes congressional district breakdowns for statewide races. If not we'll have to wait for the data nerds to do their thing.

https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/prior-elections/statewide-election-results

The supplement to the statement of votes cast will have a breakdown by congressional district, as well as assembly and senate districts. I don't think they put that out until March, so we have to be patient.

[Schiff for Senate]

Santa Barbara County voted exactly like the statewide margin in all statewide races.

Lol