Wow no wonder Democrats lost the congressional race there. Really awful results for Democrats in Stanislaus County which doesn't surprise me given my anecdotal experiences there, but it demographically is surprising given general trends of tech worker exodus from the Bay Area. Maybe those who are moving to the Central Valley represent more anti-establishment voters?
Then again Newsom is just a terrible fit for the Central Valley and Southern California overall so it may just be him.
It was my perception that tech workers are moving more into San Joaquin County than Stanislaus. Josh Harder did well in San Joaquin, and that may be a reason, but Stanislaus was quite bad for Dems this cycle.
How far from the Bay would tech workers actually live? If you're living in Tracy, you're already pushing the daily commute limit and it's still a lot for the occasional commute. Someone living in Modesto would have to be near remote, in which case they might want to live somewhere more amenable than Modesto.
Obviously this is only my personal perspective - but all the people I know from Modesto are Bay Area commuters or formerly commuters (now work remotely full or part-time). However these are all conservatives who sought out Modesto to get away from the Bay Area while still having amenities such as good schools, access to medical care, etc.
I agree that Tracy and maybe Manteca are the outer limits of daily commuters - but parts of Stanislaus County like Salida are definitely drawing commuters. Obviously not enough at this point to overpower the other trends that are occurring.
https://www.protocol.com/silicon-valley-tech-shuttlesAll that being said - every metro area has its exurbs that tend to be quite strongly GOP relative to the core city. The Bay Area is one of the few places that doesn't really see this trend in any direction except in Oakley, parts of San Joaquin County, and I would argue Stanislaus County as well. It just surprises me that this area is trending so strongly towards the GOP relative to other exurban areas in CA like Placer County or the Inland Empire.
