California post-election analysis thread

[Canis]

Here are the main reasons Newsom and the statewide ticket underperformed compared to 2018 and the recall. IMO

Turnout was lower because Dems weren't super motivated this year, in 2021 Elder scared Dems badly and made voters who disapproved of Newsom but weren't willing to vote for an extremist like elder show up and vote against the recall. In 2018 Dems were hyper-motivated by Trump being elected and all D's got a significant boost from voters who typically wouldn't vote D down-ballot not wanting to support GOP candidates.

Another reason is Newsom barely campaigned at all this year, Dahle was not perceived as a threat (rightly) due to his low fundraising and polling numbers. Gavin didn't start campaigning and attacking Dahle till the very last minute of the election. When he did so, he did a great job painting Dahle as an extremist and showing what a disaster of a governor he would be in the debate. But it was too little too late Dahle was just perceived as generic R and a lot of those voters who disapproved of Newsom but flipped to No on the recall when Elder became the frontrunner felt comfortable not voting or voting for Dahle as a protest vote.

[Canis]

So I’ve been able to track down most of the municipal results in California for the 2022 midterm election on my own. I’m only missing cities in Colusa (2: Colusa, Williams), Del Norte (1: Crescent City), Plumas (1: Portola), Tehama (3: Corning, Red Bluff, Tehama), and Tuolumne (1: Sonora) counties, so take these results with a grain of salt as there are still eight cities still outstanding for which I don’t have any results.

First, here's a look at how the cities that flipped from 2016 to 2020 in the presidential elections voted.

Donald J. Trump 2016/Joe Biden 2020 Cities (19)
• Crescent City (Trump+ 01.46, Biden+ 02.20)
o   CA-GOV: No data available
o   CA-SEN: No data available
 
• Placerville (Trump+ 00.07, Biden+ 05.19)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 2,156 (53.27%) — Newsom 1,891 (46.73%) = R+ 06.54
o   CA-SEN: Padilla 2,006 (50.39%) — Meuser 1,975 (49.61%) = D+ 00.78

• Bradbury (Trump+ 00.79, Biden+ 04.80)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 184 (58.97%) — Newsom 128 (41.03%) = R+ 17.94
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 178 (57.05%) — Padilla 134 (42.95%) = R+ 14.10

• La Verne (Trump+ 00.70, Biden+ 03.01)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 6,752 (54.53%) — Newsom 5,631 (45.47%) = R+ 09.06
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 6,428 (51.94%) — Padilla 5,949 (48.06%) = R+ 03.88

• Brea (Trump+ 03.62, Biden+ 02.98)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 9,057 (55.65%) — Newsom 7,219 (44.35%) = R+ 11.30
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 8,835 (53.88%) — Padilla 7,564 (46.12%) = R+ 07.76

• Laguna Hills (Trump+ 01.36, Biden+ 05.85)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 6,267 (52.92%) — Newsom 5,575 (47.08%) = R+ 05.84
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 6,234 (51.97%) — Padilla 5,761 (48.03%) = R+ 03.94

• Laguna Niguel (Trump+ 01.72, Biden+ 04.70)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 14,969 (53.27%) — Newsom 13,129 (46.73%) = R+ 06.54
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 14,868 (51.94%) — Padilla 13,760 (48.06%) = R+ 03.88

• Lake Forest (Trump+ 00.76, Biden+ 06.98)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 15,471 (51.80%) — Newsom 14,393 (48.20%) = R+ 03.60
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 15,360 (50.76%) — Padilla 14,901 (49.24%) = R+ 01.52
 
• Mission Viejo (Trump+ 05.97, Biden+ 01.98)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 21,916 (54.93%) — Newsom 17,984 (45.07%) = R+ 08.96
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 21,549 (53.27%) — Padilla 18,906 (46.73%) = R+ 06.54
 
• Banning (Trump+ 02.95, Biden+ 02.43)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 4,550 (54.02%) — Newsom 3,873 (45.98%) = R+ 08.04
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 4,318 (52.25%) — Padilla 3,946 (47.75%) = R+ 04.50
   
• Hemet (Trump+ 08.86, Biden+ 00.45)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 10,931 (54.49%) — Newsom 9,131 (45.51%) = R+ 08.98
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 10,503 (53.30%) — Padilla 9,203 (46.70%) = R+ 06.60

• La Quinta (Trump+ 06.66, Biden+ 01.95)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 8,313 (53.58%) — Newsom 7,201 (46.42%) = R+ 07.16
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 8,012 (52.48%) — Padilla 7,254 (47.52%) = R+ 04.96

• Lake Elsinore (Trump+ 02.19, Biden+ 01.32)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 8,102 (55.45%) — Newsom 6,509 (44.55%) = R+ 10.90
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 7,709 (53.68%) — Padilla 6,652 (46.32%) = R+ 07.36

• Palm Desert (Trump+ 02.00, Biden+ 07.60)
o   CA-GOV: Newsom 10,547 (51.84%) — Dahle 9,799 (48.16%) = D+ 03.68
o   CA-SEN: Padilla 10,564 (52.76%) — Meuser 9,460 (47.24%) = D+ 05.52

• Coronado (Trump+ 02.14, Biden+ 07.26)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 3,996 (53.11%) — Newsom 3,528 (46.89%) = R+ 06.22
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 3,862 (51.70%) — Padilla 3,608 (48.30%) = R+ 03.40

• Poway (Trump+ 04.55, Biden+ 04.58)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 11,072 (53.25%) — Newsom 9,721 (46.75%) = R+ 06.50
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 10,512 (51.28%) — Padilla 9,986 (48.72%) = R+ 02.56

• Atascadero (Trump+ 04.17, Biden+ 01.50)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 7,246 (54.49%) — Newsom 6,052 (45.51%) = R+ 08.98
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 6,837 (52.11%) — Padilla 6,283 (47.89%) = R+ 04.22

• Solvang (Trump+ 01.18, Biden+ 08.86)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 1,393 (51.50%) — Newsom 1,312 (48.50%) = R+ 03.00
o   CA-SEN: Padilla 1,344 (50.22%) — Meuser 1,332 (49.78%) = D+ 00.44

• Simi Valley (Trump+ 04.02, Biden+ 00.89)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 26,224 (54.90%) — Newsom 21,542 (45.10%) = R+ 09.80
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 25,186 (53.52%) — Padilla 21,869 (46.48%) = R+ 07.04

Hillary Rodham Clinton 2016/Donald J. Trump 2020 Cities (3)
• Fountain Valley (Clinton+ 00.31, Trump+ 03.87)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 11,510 (54.53%) — Newsom 9,598 (45.47%) = R+ 09.06
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 11,704 (54.69%) — Padilla 9,695 (45.31%) = R+ 09.38

• Westminster (Clinton+ 15.37, Trump+ 09.15)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 13,100 (53.74%) — Newsom 11,278 (46.26%) = R+ 07.48
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 13,630 (55.68%) — Padilla 10,851 (44.32%) = R+ 11.36

• Porterville (Clinton+ 01.59, Trump+ 00.33)
o   CA-GOV: Dahle 5,455 (57.77%) — Newsom 3,987 (42.23%) = R+ 15.54
o   CA-SEN: Meuser 5,205 (55.47%) — Padilla 4,178 (44.53%) = R+ 10.94

Secondly, here are some red-to-blue and blue-to-red (flipped) cities in the gubernatorial election between incumbent Gov. Gavin C. Newsom (D) and State Senator Brian D. Dahle (R). I also have municipal results for all of the other statewide races (Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, State Controller, State Treasurer, Attorney General, State Insurance Commissioner, and U.S. Senator) if anyone is interested in seeing any of those (will try to promptly respond to as many individual requests as I get for those). I also have individual city results for all of the U.S. House races by the new congressional districts.

Newsom 2018/Dahle 2022 (24)
Fresno: Fowler
Humboldt: Ferndale
Imperial: Imperial
Kern: Wasco
Kings: Corcoran
Lake: Lakeport
Los Angeles: La Mirada
Madera: Madera
Orange: Garden Grove
Riverside: Eastvale, Jurupa Valley, San Jacinto
San Bernardino: Chino, Highland
San Diego: Escondido
San Joaquin: Manteca
Santa Barbara: Santa Maria
Siskiyou: Weed
Stanislaus: Modesto, Newman, Riverbank
Sutter: Live Oak
Tulare: Dinuba
Ventura: Moorpark

Cox 2018/Newsom 2022 (4)
Los Angeles: San Marino
Riverside: Palm Desert
San Luis Obispo: Arroyo Grande
Ventura: Camarillo

2018-2022 swings by city coming up next.

How'd Biden do in Camarillo? I'm kinda surprised it flipped this year, grandpa on my mom's side lived there till he passed, whenever I visited it definitely gave country club republican vibes.