California post-election analysis thread

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An example of the kind of data I'm looking forward to seeing is on page 5 of this very large PDF.

This monster of a thing is just for Solano County??

This is Riverside County's statement from the primary. You'll be wishing it was like Solano's

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An example of the kind of data I'm looking forward to seeing is on page 5 of this very large PDF.

This monster of a thing is just for Solano County??

Just wait until Riverside County uploads their Statement. This one's from June

The voter-to-page ratio still appears to be worse for Solano County, though. That PDF is an absolute beast to look at, but still remember that Riverside County has 2.4 million people (10th biggest in the entire nation), while Solano has a comparatively puny 450,000.

Still, whatever the case is, a tome of that size for one county - even the largest county in the USA (which is next door LA County) seems a bit much.

Sorry, I thought you were talking about readability rather than the amount/ratio of data. I guess for a more apt comparison to Riverside, Orange County uses the same statements as Solano. I'd still much rather have that than how Riverside publishes them.

https://www.ocvote.gov/fileadmin/live/PRI2022/final/sov.pdf

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This state is becoming red-pilled. I live in San Francisco and voters here are turning on the Democratic Party over concerns about crime and homelessness they've been tricked into thinking are the result of democratic or progressive leadership.

This seems like an extreme overreaction after 1 election.

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Orange County flipped back into the red column for the Governor and the Senate. The two congresswomen, 43rd and 47th districs I think, held with higher margins than 2020 IIRC, maybe the LA times could write an obituary for their obituary on OCC's rep leanings now  

Considering the best the non-Chen GOP could muster in OC in a comparatively low-turnout midterm with complacent/lazy Dems were <5 point margins, I don't know if I'd be so cocky just yet

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Governor 2022 - Recall/No 2021  (No+ 5.4)

Biggest swings
1.  Colusa                      No  +11.0
2.  San Benito                No    +9.0
3.  San Joaquin              No    +8.8
4.  Monterey                  No    +8.0
5.  Sutter, Glenn             No    +7.8

Weakest swings
1.  Lassen                      No    +0.2
2.  Inyo, San Francisco   No    +1.4
4.  Mono, Yuba               No    +1.8






Governor 2022 - Governor 2018  (R +5.4)

Biggest GOP swings
1.  Lassen, Stanislaus   R  +14.0
3.  Colusa                    R  +13.6
4.  Merced, Tulare         R  +12.8

Biggest Dem swings
1.  Inyo, Marin             D    +1.0
3.  Contra Costa          D    +0.2






Governor 2022 - Governor 2014  (R +1.6)

Biggest GOP swings
1.  Lassen           R +33.4
2.  Colusa           R +29.6
3.  Lake              R +25.6
4.  Amador          R +24.6
5.  Shasta           R +21.8

Biggest Dem swings
1.  San Diego      D  +9.4
2.  Orange          D  +8.2
3.  Inyo              D  +5.0
4.  Mono             D  +3.0
5.  Ventura          D  +2.8





Controller 2022 - Controller 2014  (D +2.6)

Biggest GOP swings
1.  Lassen                        R +18.6
2.  Lake                           R +17.0
3.  Amador                      R +14.0
4.  Del Norte, Siskiyou      R +12.4

Biggest Dem swings
1.  Orange                       D +14.4
2.  Merced, San Diego      D +10.4
4.  Mono                         D   +9.6
5.  Inyo                          D   +8.4

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Governor 2022 - Senate 2022 (Padilla +3.8 )

Biggest overperformances
1.  Colusa      Padilla  +10.4
2.  Lassen      Padilla  +10.2
3.  Glenn        Padilla   +8.4
4.  Plumas      Padilla   +8.2
5.  Imperial    Padilla   +8.0

Weakest overperformances
1.  San Francisco                                         Padilla +0.4
2.  Alameda, Orange                                    Padilla +2.0
4.  Marin                                                      Padilla +2.2
5.  Contra Costa, San Mateo, Santa Clara      Padilla +2.8







Governor 2022 - Controller 2022  (Chen +7.8 )

Biggest Dahle overperformances
1.  Lassen                   Dahle  +6.8
2.  Modoc                   Dahle   +6.0
3.  Glenn                    Dahle   +4.6
4.  Colusa, Tehama     Dahle   +4.4

Biggest Chen overperformances
1. San Francisco           Chen +19.0
2. Santa Clara              Chen +13.4
3. Marin                       Chen +13.2
4. San Mateo                Chen +13.0
5. Alameda                   Chen +11.4

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1.  Lassen                   Dahle  +6.8
1. San Francisco           Chen +19.0

What was the overperformance margin for LA County?

Chen +10.4

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Some supplementals were uploaded on the CA Secretary of State site.

Districts with all-Dem candidates are grayed out. For the lists below, I only included D/R races (CD-10 was a Dem/Green contest). Finally, Padilla bested Newsom in every house district so no map for that comparison.

House Dem  vs.  Gov. Gavin Newsom




Biggest House Dem overperformance vs Newsom
1. CD-9 (Harder)         +7.3  (54.8 - 47.5)
2. CD-1 (LaMalfa)        +5.2  (37.9 - 32.8 )
3. CD-25 (Ruiz)            +4.8  (57.4 - 52.5)
4. CD-7  (Matsui)         +4.5  (68.3 - 63.8 )
5. CD-4  (Thompson)   +4.5  (67.8 - 63.3)

Biggest House Dem underperformance vs Newsom
1. CD-27 (Garcia)     -2.4   (46.8 - 49.1)
2. CD-11 (Pelosi)     -2.2   (84.0 - 86.1)
3. CD-45 (Steel)       -1.4   (47.6 - 49.0)
4. CD-40 (Kim)         -1.4   (43.2 - 44.6)
5. CD-43 (Waters)    -1.0   (77.3 - 78.3)





House Dem  vs.  Sen. Alex Padilla



Biggest House Dem overperformance vs Padilla
1. CD-9 (Harder)        +4.1    (54.8 - 50.8 )
2. CD-25 (Ruiz)          +2.8    (57.4 - 54.6)
3. CD-7 (Matsui)         +2.2   (68.3 - 66.1)
4. CD-4 (Thompson)   +2.2   (67.8 - 65.7)
5. CD-52(Vargas)        +1.9   (66.7 - 64.8 )

Biggest House Dem underperformance vs Padilla
1. CD-27 (Garcia)     -4.7   (46.8 - 51.5)
2. CD-22 (Valadao)  -2.8   (48.5 - 51.2)
3. CD-40 (Kim)         -2.7   (43.2 - 45.9)
4. CD-43 (Waters)   -2.7   (77.3 - 80.0)
5. CD-11 (Pelosi)     -2.5   (84.0 - 86.5)

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This state is becoming red-pilled. I live in San Francisco and voters here are turning on the Democratic Party over concerns about crime and homelessness they've been tricked into thinking are the result of democratic or progressive leadership.

My favorite question to local: any Republicans elected on county and city (>-10000) posts in Bay Area? Perusing 9 counties results i don't see any - Democrats and Indies only.....

Jeol Engardio and Matt Dorsey were elected to San Francisco BOS as Republicans

But Google says me, that both are Democrats....

"But they align with Breed and law enforcement, practically making them Bay Area Republicans" - bayareabay, probably