California post-election analysis thread

[Schiff for Senate]

An example of the kind of data I'm looking forward to seeing is on page 5 of this very large PDF.

This monster of a thing is just for Solano County??

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

An example of the kind of data I'm looking forward to seeing is on page 5 of this very large PDF.

This monster of a thing is just for Solano County??

This is Riverside County's statement from the primary. You'll be wishing it was like Solano's

[Schiff for Senate]

An example of the kind of data I'm looking forward to seeing is on page 5 of this very large PDF.

This monster of a thing is just for Solano County??

Just wait until Riverside County uploads their Statement. This one's from June

The voter-to-page ratio still appears to be worse for Solano County, though. That PDF is an absolute beast to look at, but still remember that Riverside County has 2.4 million people (10th biggest in the entire nation), while Solano has a comparatively puny 450,000.

Still, whatever the case is, a tome of that size for one county - even the largest county in the USA (which is next door LA County) seems a bit much.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

An example of the kind of data I'm looking forward to seeing is on page 5 of this very large PDF.

This monster of a thing is just for Solano County??

Just wait until Riverside County uploads their Statement. This one's from June

The voter-to-page ratio still appears to be worse for Solano County, though. That PDF is an absolute beast to look at, but still remember that Riverside County has 2.4 million people (10th biggest in the entire nation), while Solano has a comparatively puny 450,000.

Still, whatever the case is, a tome of that size for one county - even the largest county in the USA (which is next door LA County) seems a bit much.

Sorry, I thought you were talking about readability rather than the amount/ratio of data. I guess for a more apt comparison to Riverside, Orange County uses the same statements as Solano. I'd still much rather have that than how Riverside publishes them.

https://www.ocvote.gov/fileadmin/live/PRI2022/final/sov.pdf

[Schiff for Senate]

An example of the kind of data I'm looking forward to seeing is on page 5 of this very large PDF.

This monster of a thing is just for Solano County??

Just wait until Riverside County uploads their Statement. This one's from June

The voter-to-page ratio still appears to be worse for Solano County, though. That PDF is an absolute beast to look at, but still remember that Riverside County has 2.4 million people (10th biggest in the entire nation), while Solano has a comparatively puny 450,000.

Still, whatever the case is, a tome of that size for one county - even the largest county in the USA (which is next door LA County) seems a bit much.

Sorry, I thought you were talking about readability rather than the amount/ratio of data. I guess for a more apt comparison to Riverside, Orange County uses the same statements as Solano. I'd still much rather have that than how Riverside publishes them.

https://www.ocvote.gov/fileadmin/live/PRI2022/final/sov.pdf

I suppose it's debatable if Orange County's statement is more readable or if Riverside's is. However, yes, what I was really thinking about more was the actual length of the statement. On that count, it turns out Orange County easily wins. It does have a bigger population than Riverside, but more importantly, once I actually scrolled to the bottom of the PDF, I found that the PDF for OC County had "only" 1,353 pages - while Riverside County's had a whopping 4,167 (mercifully, I didn't need to scroll to the bottom of the PDF to find how many pages it had).

[bayareabay]

This state is becoming red-pilled. I live in San Francisco and voters here are turning on the Democratic Party over concerns about crime and homelessness they've been tricked into thinking are the result of democratic or progressive leadership.

[smoltchanov]

This state is becoming red-pilled. I live in San Francisco and voters here are turning on the Democratic Party over concerns about crime and homelessness they've been tricked into thinking are the result of democratic or progressive leadership.

My favorite question to local: any Republicans elected on county and city (>-10000) posts in Bay Area? Perusing 9 counties results i don't see any - Democrats and Indies only.....

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

This state is becoming red-pilled. I live in San Francisco and voters here are turning on the Democratic Party over concerns about crime and homelessness they've been tricked into thinking are the result of democratic or progressive leadership.

This seems like an extreme overreaction after 1 election.

[Aurelius]

City-level data from Amador and Inyo, from adding precincts together. I'm not going to bother doing this manually for larger counties.

Code:

City          Newsom  Dahle  Newsom  Dahle  R Margin  Newsom  Cox    Newsom  Cox    R Margin  R Swing
Bishop        691     568    54.9%   45.1%  -9.8%     675     580    53.8%   46.2%  -7.6%     -2.2%
Uninc. Inyo   2691    3527   43.3%   56.7%  13.4%     2569    3438   42.8%   57.2%  14.5%     -1.0%
Amador City   80      39     67.2%   32.8%  -34.5%    43      28     60.6%   39.4%  -21.1%    -13.3%
Ione          620     1840   25.2%   74.8%  49.6%     428     970    30.6%   69.4%  38.8%     10.8%
Jackson       861     1339   39.1%   60.9%  21.7%     655     807    44.8%   55.2%  10.4%     11.3%
Plymouth      170     361    32.0%   68.0%  36.0%     70      171    29.0%   71.0%  41.9%     -5.9%
Sutter Creek  551     784    41.3%   58.7%  17.5%     400     542    42.5%   57.5%  15.1%     2.4%
Uninc. Amador 3745    8265   31.2%   68.8%  37.6%     1596    2518   38.8%   61.2%  22.4%     15.2%

[Skill and Chance]

This state is becoming red-pilled. I live in San Francisco and voters here are turning on the Democratic Party over concerns about crime and homelessness they've been tricked into thinking are the result of democratic or progressive leadership.

My favorite question to local: any Republicans elected on county and city (>-10000) posts in Bay Area? Perusing 9 counties results i don't see any - Democrats and Indies only.....

The shift largely isn't seen in the Bay Area.  The medium term risk for CA Dems is the rest of the state rising up against the Bay Area.

[Aurelius]

Stanislaus has certified. Dahle beat Newsom 57.8%-42.2% (15.6% R margin). In 2018 Cox squeaked out a narrow win, 50.8%-49.2% (1.6% R margin). That's a 14% margin swing rightward - pretty big. Worth noting that R votes dropped only very slightly, and D votes plummeted. Haven't looked enough at precincts yet to determine how much of this is persuasion vs turnout.

[Aurelius]

Stanislaus city-level results and swings:



Ceres in particular surprised me.

[smoltchanov]

On the surface situation in California looks as combination of 2 things: plummeting turnout among Democratic electorate (especially - among Hispanics), plus some conservative shift (not of RGV-2020 size, but - still tangible) among minorities (first of all - the same Hispanics), especially - among not-too-educated working class types. That may create problems in the future (not immediate future, but later..)

[kwabbit]

This state is becoming red-pilled. I live in San Francisco and voters here are turning on the Democratic Party over concerns about crime and homelessness they've been tricked into thinking are the result of democratic or progressive leadership.

My favorite question to local: any Republicans elected on county and city (>-10000) posts in Bay Area? Perusing 9 counties results i don't see any - Democrats and Indies only.....

The shift largely isn't seen in the Bay Area.  The medium term risk for CA Dems is the rest of the state rising up against the Bay Area.

Any GOP victory or close miss in California would have to result from a regionalist factor. This was already somewhat present in 2022, where the Bay shifted but not as much as the rest of the state. It would have to pit a left-wing Bay Area figure against a popular SoCal figure in a Dem midterm.

Ro Khanna or Kounalakis vs. Mike Garcia in 2026 after Biden wins is the best matchup the GOP could get. They would need someone with Bay Area slime like Khanna that is easy to paint as a too Silicon-Valley oriented and alien to the rest of the state.

[Aurelius]

As of a couple days ago, the deadline has passed and all ballots have been reported. Many counties have still not posted their SOVCs though. Newsom won 59.2%-40.8%. Dahle's share of the vote exceeded Cox's share of the vote by 2.7% (40.8% vs 38.1%). He flipped five counties: Lake, San Joaquin, Merced, San Bernardino, and Orange. Contrary to my prediction, he did not flip San Luis Obispo. Turnout was significantly lower than in 2018, and the dropoff seems to be especially high in Hispanic areas. Of course, Newsom still won very comfortably, with a margin of slightly over 2 million votes.

Most of the trends were unsurprising - Hispanics shifted hard right, rural whites shifted further right, Asians shifted right but not as fast as Hispanics; affluent UMC suburbs shifted left, especially affluent white suburbs in the Bay Area which shifted hard left, especially relative to the state.

On the other hand, I noticed an interesting counter-trend in two particular types of affluent suburb. The first is "country lifestyle"/horse-oriented places like Bradbury, which actually flipped from Newsom 2018 to Dahle 2022, and Wildomar. These had a pretty strong shift rightward. The other was places that are not simply affluent but rather flat out rich, like Hidden Hills (Dahle came within 1 point of flipping), and Newport Beach. In these, the shift was usually less extreme than in the first group. Beverly Hills also shifted hard right, but that could be due to Iranian Jews in particular.

Note that this trend does not carry over to the Bay Area. For example, affluent Orinda went from 71.0% Newsom in 2018 to 73.8% Newsom in 2022. Uber-rich Atherton went from 59.5% Newsom in 2018 to 62.5% Newsom in 2022.

Actually, looking at the data further, it might simply be that NorCal whites swung left and SoCal whites swung right, but there's also significant data suggesting the opposite - for example, many of the historically deep red suburbs in south/southeast Orange County either swung left or barely swung right, and everything that happened in San Luis Obispo County (which is a bit closer to SoCal than NorCal).

[Aurelius]

This state is becoming red-pilled. I live in San Francisco and voters here are turning on the Democratic Party over concerns about crime and homelessness they've been tricked into thinking are the result of democratic or progressive leadership.

My favorite question to local: any Republicans elected on county and city (>-10000) posts in Bay Area? Perusing 9 counties results i don't see any - Democrats and Indies only.....

The shift largely isn't seen in the Bay Area.  The medium term risk for CA Dems is the rest of the state rising up against the Bay Area.

Any GOP victory or close miss in California would have to result from a regionalist factor. This was already somewhat present in 2022, where the Bay shifted but not as much as the rest of the state. It would have to pit a left-wing Bay Area figure against a popular SoCal figure in a Dem midterm.

Ro Khanna or Kounalakis vs. Mike Garcia in 2026 after Biden wins is the best matchup the GOP could get. They would need someone with Bay Area slime like Khanna that is easy to paint as a too Silicon-Valley oriented and alien to the rest of the state.

And the GOP would still be lucky to lose by 12. California is probably glacially trending right, but that doesn't mean it's going to be a competitive state anytime soon.

[ottermax]

Stanislaus city-level results and swings:



Ceres in particular surprised me.

Wow no wonder Democrats lost the congressional race there. Really awful results for Democrats in Stanislaus County which doesn't surprise me given my anecdotal experiences there, but it demographically is surprising given general trends of tech worker exodus from the Bay Area. Maybe those who are moving to the Central Valley represent more anti-establishment voters?

Then again Newsom is just a terrible fit for the Central Valley and Southern California overall so it may just be him.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Most of the trends were unsurprising - Hispanics shifted hard right, rural whites shifted further right, Asians shifted right but not as fast as Hispanics; affluent UMC suburbs shifted left, especially affluent white suburbs in the Bay Area which shifted hard left, especially relative to the state.

Actually, looking at the data further, it might simply be that NorCal whites swung left and SoCal whites swung right, but there's also significant data suggesting the opposite - for example, many of the historically deep red suburbs in south/southeast Orange County either swung left or barely swung right, and everything that happened in San Luis Obispo County (which is a bit closer to SoCal than NorCal).

What were the raw vote counts and percentages from 2018, 2020-PRES, and 2022 for: East San Jose, Cupertino, Milpitas, Fremont, Daly City, Oakland, Vallejo, the Excelsior and Sunset Districts/neighborhoods of San Francisco, Rancho Cordova, Folsom, Fresno, Hacienda Heights, Arcadia, Rosemead, Torrance, Long Beach, Signal Hill, Irvine, Riverside, La Jolla, Poway, and National City?

I’m also curious what if any shifts there were among Hmong in the Central Valley and among San Diego Asians, and to what extent there were turnout/persuasion shifts among the Chicanos of LA County, the Inland Empire, and San Diego.

[kwabbit]

Stanislaus city-level results and swings:



Ceres in particular surprised me.

Wow no wonder Democrats lost the congressional race there. Really awful results for Democrats in Stanislaus County which doesn't surprise me given my anecdotal experiences there, but it demographically is surprising given general trends of tech worker exodus from the Bay Area. Maybe those who are moving to the Central Valley represent more anti-establishment voters?

Then again Newsom is just a terrible fit for the Central Valley and Southern California overall so it may just be him.

It was my perception that tech workers are moving more into San Joaquin County than Stanislaus. Josh Harder did well in San Joaquin, and that may be a reason, but Stanislaus was quite bad for Dems this cycle.

How far from the Bay would tech workers actually live? If you're living in Tracy, you're already pushing the daily commute limit and it's still a lot for the occasional commute. Someone living in Modesto would have to be near remote, in which case they might want to live somewhere more amenable than Modesto.

[ottermax]

Wow no wonder Democrats lost the congressional race there. Really awful results for Democrats in Stanislaus County which doesn't surprise me given my anecdotal experiences there, but it demographically is surprising given general trends of tech worker exodus from the Bay Area. Maybe those who are moving to the Central Valley represent more anti-establishment voters?

Then again Newsom is just a terrible fit for the Central Valley and Southern California overall so it may just be him.

It was my perception that tech workers are moving more into San Joaquin County than Stanislaus. Josh Harder did well in San Joaquin, and that may be a reason, but Stanislaus was quite bad for Dems this cycle.

How far from the Bay would tech workers actually live? If you're living in Tracy, you're already pushing the daily commute limit and it's still a lot for the occasional commute. Someone living in Modesto would have to be near remote, in which case they might want to live somewhere more amenable than Modesto.

Obviously this is only my personal perspective - but all the people I know from Modesto are Bay Area commuters or formerly commuters (now work remotely full or part-time). However these are all conservatives who sought out Modesto to get away from the Bay Area while still having amenities such as good schools, access to medical care, etc.

I agree that Tracy and maybe Manteca are the outer limits of daily commuters - but parts of Stanislaus County like Salida are definitely drawing commuters. Obviously not enough at this point to overpower the other trends that are occurring.

https://www.protocol.com/silicon-valley-tech-shuttles

All that being said - every metro area has its exurbs that tend to be quite strongly GOP relative to the core city. The Bay Area is one of the few places that doesn't really see this trend in any direction except in Oakley, parts of San Joaquin County, and I would argue Stanislaus County as well. It just surprises me that this area is trending so strongly towards the GOP relative to other exurban areas in CA like Placer County or the Inland Empire.

[kwabbit]

Wow no wonder Democrats lost the congressional race there. Really awful results for Democrats in Stanislaus County which doesn't surprise me given my anecdotal experiences there, but it demographically is surprising given general trends of tech worker exodus from the Bay Area. Maybe those who are moving to the Central Valley represent more anti-establishment voters?

Then again Newsom is just a terrible fit for the Central Valley and Southern California overall so it may just be him.

It was my perception that tech workers are moving more into San Joaquin County than Stanislaus. Josh Harder did well in San Joaquin, and that may be a reason, but Stanislaus was quite bad for Dems this cycle.

How far from the Bay would tech workers actually live? If you're living in Tracy, you're already pushing the daily commute limit and it's still a lot for the occasional commute. Someone living in Modesto would have to be near remote, in which case they might want to live somewhere more amenable than Modesto.

Obviously this is only my personal perspective - but all the people I know from Modesto are Bay Area commuters or formerly commuters (now work remotely full or part-time). However these are all conservatives who sought out Modesto to get away from the Bay Area while still having amenities such as good schools, access to medical care, etc.

I agree that Tracy and maybe Manteca are the outer limits of daily commuters - but parts of Stanislaus County like Salida are definitely drawing commuters. Obviously not enough at this point to overpower the other trends that are occurring.

https://www.protocol.com/silicon-valley-tech-shuttles

All that being said - every metro area has its exurbs that tend to be quite strongly GOP relative to the core city. The Bay Area is one of the few places that doesn't really see this trend in any direction except in Oakley, parts of San Joaquin County, and I would argue Stanislaus County as well. It just surprises me that this area is trending so strongly towards the GOP relative to other exurban areas in CA like Placer County or the Inland Empire.

I'm not from CA, but my perception is that San Joaquin is not an exurb of the Bay; it is primarily a Central Valley Ag County like Stanislaus that has some Bay Area exurban spillover. Neither county would qualify as part of the Bay metro in my eyes, with San Joaquin being maybe 25% orientation to the Metro and Stanislaus like 5%.

They are not trending blue because Hispanics + traditionally working class Asian ethnicities make up more than half the population. Placer is very White for California and is oriented almost entirely with the Sac metro.

IE is more complicated, but it's hard to say if it's still trending blue. IE trended hard blue in 2008 and 2016, but I think it's stabilized. Trump did fine in 2020, not losing that much ground, and the GOP did relatively well in the recall and in 2022. The Democrats aren't getting obliterated with IE Whites anymore so there's slower gains while the GOP gains with Hispanics will balance that out.

[Aurelius]

Wow no wonder Democrats lost the congressional race there. Really awful results for Democrats in Stanislaus County which doesn't surprise me given my anecdotal experiences there, but it demographically is surprising given general trends of tech worker exodus from the Bay Area. Maybe those who are moving to the Central Valley represent more anti-establishment voters?

Then again Newsom is just a terrible fit for the Central Valley and Southern California overall so it may just be him.

It was my perception that tech workers are moving more into San Joaquin County than Stanislaus. Josh Harder did well in San Joaquin, and that may be a reason, but Stanislaus was quite bad for Dems this cycle.

How far from the Bay would tech workers actually live? If you're living in Tracy, you're already pushing the daily commute limit and it's still a lot for the occasional commute. Someone living in Modesto would have to be near remote, in which case they might want to live somewhere more amenable than Modesto.

Obviously this is only my personal perspective - but all the people I know from Modesto are Bay Area commuters or formerly commuters (now work remotely full or part-time). However these are all conservatives who sought out Modesto to get away from the Bay Area while still having amenities such as good schools, access to medical care, etc.

I agree that Tracy and maybe Manteca are the outer limits of daily commuters - but parts of Stanislaus County like Salida are definitely drawing commuters. Obviously not enough at this point to overpower the other trends that are occurring.

https://www.protocol.com/silicon-valley-tech-shuttles

All that being said - every metro area has its exurbs that tend to be quite strongly GOP relative to the core city. The Bay Area is one of the few places that doesn't really see this trend in any direction except in Oakley, parts of San Joaquin County, and I would argue Stanislaus County as well. It just surprises me that this area is trending so strongly towards the GOP relative to other exurban areas in CA like Placer County or the Inland Empire.

Stanislaus County is not in any meaningful sense a Bay Area exurb. Outside of maybe Patterson, Bay Area commuters are only a tiny minority. The economy is mostly a typical Central Valley ag-based economy.

The Salida bus mentioned in the article you linked is for blue-collar workers at Tesla's factory, whose starting pay when the article was published was $19 an hour. Tech workers are going to be making a lot money than this, and therefore tech supercommuters presumably live closer to the Bay than places like Salida. (plus, tech workers mostly work 9-5 or similar. The hour-and-a-half journey from Salida to Fremont for the 4am shift involves no traffic. It would take twice as long during normal commute times.) I imagine the blue-collar workers at Tesla's factory who live in the Valley are much more conservative than the techies who live in the Valley.

Stanislaus city-level results and swings:



Ceres in particular surprised me.

Wow no wonder Democrats lost the congressional race there. Really awful results for Democrats in Stanislaus County which doesn't surprise me given my anecdotal experiences there, but it demographically is surprising given general trends of tech worker exodus from the Bay Area. Maybe those who are moving to the Central Valley represent more anti-establishment voters?

Then again Newsom is just a terrible fit for the Central Valley and Southern California overall so it may just be him.

It was my perception that tech workers are moving more into San Joaquin County than Stanislaus. Josh Harder did well in San Joaquin, and that may be a reason, but Stanislaus was quite bad for Dems this cycle.

How far from the Bay would tech workers actually live? If you're living in Tracy, you're already pushing the daily commute limit and it's still a lot for the occasional commute. Someone living in Modesto would have to be near remote, in which case they might want to live somewhere more amenable than Modesto.

Stanislaus County probably actually has fewer Bay Area commuters than either of San Joaquin or Merced counties. In Merced County, Los Banos is a fast-growing town that's become a bedroom community for South Bay supercommuters.

The Central Valley is mostly a mix of Hispanics and downscale rural/exurban whites - both GOP-trending groups - in an agriculture-oriented economy. That's all the ingredients for a rapid rightward trend nowadays.

[Aurelius]

Most of the trends were unsurprising - Hispanics shifted hard right, rural whites shifted further right, Asians shifted right but not as fast as Hispanics; affluent UMC suburbs shifted left, especially affluent white suburbs in the Bay Area which shifted hard left, especially relative to the state.

Actually, looking at the data further, it might simply be that NorCal whites swung left and SoCal whites swung right, but there's also significant data suggesting the opposite - for example, many of the historically deep red suburbs in south/southeast Orange County either swung left or barely swung right, and everything that happened in San Luis Obispo County (which is a bit closer to SoCal than NorCal).

What were the raw vote counts and percentages from 2018, 2020-PRES, and 2022 for: East San Jose, Cupertino, Milpitas, Fremont, Daly City, Oakland, Vallejo, the Excelsior and Sunset Districts/neighborhoods of San Francisco, Rancho Cordova, Folsom, Fresno, Hacienda Heights, Arcadia, Rosemead, Torrance, Long Beach, Signal Hill, Irvine, Riverside, La Jolla, Poway, and National City?

I’m also curious what if any shifts there were among Hmong in the Central Valley and among San Diego Asians, and to what extent there were turnout/persuasion shifts among the Chicanos of LA County, the Inland Empire, and San Diego.

The way California counties report results makes it easier to determine results for cities than for neighborhoods of cities. Some counties have also not yet released granular results (some counties don't release their Statement of Votes Cast right away after certifying, and a few don't post these documents on their website at all), or have released them in such a messy way I haven't yet been able to make sense of it. Some municipalities will probably have to wait until the state SOS office releases the Supplement to the Statement of Votes Cast in a few months. Here's what I have so far:



If you want to take a look at Fresno's 4,500 page Statement of Votes Cast or San Diego's 80 MB Excel spreadsheet, have fun I guess.

[kwabbit]

Wow no wonder Democrats lost the congressional race there. Really awful results for Democrats in Stanislaus County which doesn't surprise me given my anecdotal experiences there, but it demographically is surprising given general trends of tech worker exodus from the Bay Area. Maybe those who are moving to the Central Valley represent more anti-establishment voters?

Then again Newsom is just a terrible fit for the Central Valley and Southern California overall so it may just be him.

It was my perception that tech workers are moving more into San Joaquin County than Stanislaus. Josh Harder did well in San Joaquin, and that may be a reason, but Stanislaus was quite bad for Dems this cycle.

How far from the Bay would tech workers actually live? If you're living in Tracy, you're already pushing the daily commute limit and it's still a lot for the occasional commute. Someone living in Modesto would have to be near remote, in which case they might want to live somewhere more amenable than Modesto.

Obviously this is only my personal perspective - but all the people I know from Modesto are Bay Area commuters or formerly commuters (now work remotely full or part-time). However these are all conservatives who sought out Modesto to get away from the Bay Area while still having amenities such as good schools, access to medical care, etc.

I agree that Tracy and maybe Manteca are the outer limits of daily commuters - but parts of Stanislaus County like Salida are definitely drawing commuters. Obviously not enough at this point to overpower the other trends that are occurring.

https://www.protocol.com/silicon-valley-tech-shuttles

All that being said - every metro area has its exurbs that tend to be quite strongly GOP relative to the core city. The Bay Area is one of the few places that doesn't really see this trend in any direction except in Oakley, parts of San Joaquin County, and I would argue Stanislaus County as well. It just surprises me that this area is trending so strongly towards the GOP relative to other exurban areas in CA like Placer County or the Inland Empire.

Stanislaus County is not in any meaningful sense a Bay Area exurb. Outside of maybe Patterson, Bay Area commuters are only a tiny minority. The economy is mostly a typical Central Valley ag-based economy.

The Salida bus mentioned in the article you linked is for blue-collar workers at Tesla's factory, whose starting pay when the article was published was $19 an hour. Tech workers are going to be making a lot money than this, and therefore tech supercommuters presumably live closer to the Bay than places like Salida. (plus, tech workers mostly work 9-5 or similar. The hour-and-a-half journey from Salida to Fremont for the 4am shift involves no traffic. It would take twice as long during normal commute times.) I imagine the blue-collar workers at Tesla's factory who live in the Valley are much more conservative than the techies who live in the Valley.

Stanislaus city-level results and swings:



Ceres in particular surprised me.

Wow no wonder Democrats lost the congressional race there. Really awful results for Democrats in Stanislaus County which doesn't surprise me given my anecdotal experiences there, but it demographically is surprising given general trends of tech worker exodus from the Bay Area. Maybe those who are moving to the Central Valley represent more anti-establishment voters?

Then again Newsom is just a terrible fit for the Central Valley and Southern California overall so it may just be him.

It was my perception that tech workers are moving more into San Joaquin County than Stanislaus. Josh Harder did well in San Joaquin, and that may be a reason, but Stanislaus was quite bad for Dems this cycle.

How far from the Bay would tech workers actually live? If you're living in Tracy, you're already pushing the daily commute limit and it's still a lot for the occasional commute. Someone living in Modesto would have to be near remote, in which case they might want to live somewhere more amenable than Modesto.

Stanislaus County probably actually has fewer Bay Area commuters than either of San Joaquin or Merced counties. In Merced County, Los Banos is a fast-growing town that's become a bedroom community for South Bay supercommuters.

The Central Valley is mostly a mix of Hispanics and downscale rural/exurban whites - both GOP-trending groups - in an agriculture-oriented economy. That's all the ingredients for a rapid rightward trend nowadays.

Do you know why San Joaquin has a lot of Filipino, Hmong, Vietnamese immigrants? When I first looked at DRA I thought the high Asian population in west San Joaquin, where commuting could happen, was from Indians working in tech, but that is not the case.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Most of the trends were unsurprising - Hispanics shifted hard right, rural whites shifted further right, Asians shifted right but not as fast as Hispanics; affluent UMC suburbs shifted left, especially affluent white suburbs in the Bay Area which shifted hard left, especially relative to the state.

Actually, looking at the data further, it might simply be that NorCal whites swung left and SoCal whites swung right, but there's also significant data suggesting the opposite - for example, many of the historically deep red suburbs in south/southeast Orange County either swung left or barely swung right, and everything that happened in San Luis Obispo County (which is a bit closer to SoCal than NorCal).

What were the raw vote counts and percentages from 2018, 2020-PRES, and 2022 for: East San Jose, Cupertino, Milpitas, Fremont, Daly City, Oakland, Vallejo, the Excelsior and Sunset Districts/neighborhoods of San Francisco, Rancho Cordova, Folsom, Fresno, Hacienda Heights, Arcadia, Rosemead, Torrance, Long Beach, Signal Hill, Irvine, Riverside, La Jolla, Poway, and National City?

I’m also curious what if any shifts there were among Hmong in the Central Valley and among San Diego Asians, and to what extent there were turnout/persuasion shifts among the Chicanos of LA County, the Inland Empire, and San Diego.

The way California counties report results makes it easier to determine results for cities than for neighborhoods of cities. Some counties have also not yet released granular results (some counties don't release their Statement of Votes Cast right away after certifying, and a few don't post these documents on their website at all), or have released them in such a messy way I haven't yet been able to make sense of it. Some municipalities will probably have to wait until the state SOS office releases the Supplement to the Statement of Votes Cast in a few months. Here's what I have so far:

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If you want to take a look at Fresno's 4,500 page Statement of Votes Cast or San Diego's 80 MB Excel spreadsheet, have fun I guess.

So Dahle's 2022 raw vote count was lower than Cox's 2018 numbers everywhere. Newsom got 15-25% less votes than in 2018 in most places (dropoff was smaller in wealthier and more educated places)

Bay Area-

Fremont (Alameda, $112k median household income [$51k-$196k], 60.1% college+ [7.0% <HS], 56% Asian (23.5% Indian, 18% ethnic Chinese) + 22% White + 13% Latino (10% Mexican)): 2022 percentage margin 1-2% more R than 2018 but overall turnout down at all levels. Gubernatorial 70-30ish, but 74-25ish Biden

Daly City (San Mateo, $79k median household income [$36k-$142k], 44.3% college+ [14.4% <HS], 57% Asian (32% Filipino, 19% Chinese) + 23% Latino + 13% White): 2022 percentage margin 1-2% more R than 2018 but overall turnout down at all levels. 78-22 Newsom 2018 and Biden 2020 but 76-23 Newsom 2022 (wonder how much of this shift could be mediated by Chinese moving in from SF)

Vallejo (Solano, $60k median household income [$23k-$112k], 34.5% college+ [12.7% <HS], 25% White + 24% Asian (20% Filipino) + 23% Latino (17% Mexican) + 22% Black): 2022 percentage margin 1-2% more R than 2018 but overall turnout down at all levels. Gubernatorial 77-23 to 75-25, Biden 78-22

LA County-

Arcadia (San Gabriel Valley, $84k median household income [$30k-$169k], 60.7% college+ [8.1% <HS], 59% Asian (44.5% ethnic Chinese, 3.7% Korean, 2.5% Filipino) + 23.5% White + 12% Latino): 2022 percentage margin 1-2% more R than 2018. 53-47 to 52-48.

Rosemead (San Gabriel Valley, $45.5k median household income [$20k-$90k], 22.8% college+ [34.4% <HS], 60% Asian (36% Chinese, 14% Vietnamese, 4% Mixed) + 34.5% Latino (30% Mexican) + 4% White): the 2018-2022 R swing invovled a 8% drop in R turnout and a 30% drop in D turnout. Newsom's 2022 %tage was close to Biden 2020 (66-67%)

Torrance (South County, $81k median household income [$33k-$152k], 56.0% college+ [6.3% <HS], 40% White + 34% Asian (10.2% Japanese, 6.9% Korean, 5.1% ethnic Chinese) + 17% Latino (11.3% Mexican)): 2022 percentage margin 1-2% more R than 2018 but overall turnout down by ~10%. Both round to 56-44 lol

Long Beach (South County hub, $55k median household income [$22k-$112k], 37.2% college+ [20.5% <HS],  42% Latino (35% Mexican), 28% White, 13% Black, 13% Asian (4.5% Filipino, 3.8% Cambodian, 1.0% ethnic Chinese, 0.9% Vietnamese)):  2022 percentage margin 3-4% more R than 2018 but overall turnout down by ~20%. 69-31 Newsom 2022

Signal Hill (enclave of Long Beach, $70k median household income [$30k-$132k], 46.3% college+ [15.2% <HS],  38% Latino (32.5% Mexican), 26% White, 21% Asian (8.1% Filipino, 4.5% Cambodian, 1.8% ethnic Chinese, 1.5% Japanese, 1.2% Vietnamese), 11% Black): 2022 percentage margin 3-4% more R than 2018, slightly more D than Long Beach.

Rest of SoCal-

Irvine (Central Orange County, $94k median household income [$36k-$175k], 74.7% college+ [3.4% <HS], 42.4% White, 41.4% Asian (13.8% ethnic Chinese, 8.0% Korean, 6.1% Indian, 3.7% Vietnamese, 3.5% Filipino), 9.4% Latino (6.5% Latino)): <10% dropoff in turnout from 2018-2022 (62-38 to 61-39).

Riverside (SE Inland Empire, $73k median household income [$24k-$111k], 29.9% college+ [21.0% <HS], 52% Latino (46% Mexican), 32% White, 7% Asian (1.5% Filipino, 1.4% ethnic Chinese, 1.0% Vietnamese, 0.9% Indian, 0.8% Korean), 6% Black): R turnout down ~12% from 2018, D turnout down by 26%, hence going from Newsom 56-44 to Newsom 52-48.

Do you know why San Joaquin has a lot of Filipino, Hmong, Vietnamese immigrants? When I first looked at DRA I thought the high Asian population in west San Joaquin, where commuting could happen, was from Indians working in tech, but that is not the case.

Central Valley agriculture. Hmong are definitely refugees. This part is me talking out of my ass but Filipinos might be healthcare workers, and Vietnamese possibly a mix of both?

Tbh the whole concept of moving out all the way to the Central Valley just to commute to the Bay Area for white-collar tech work strikes me as absurd given how prevalent remote work is for that industry nowadays. I know housing is prohibitively expensive in California but still...