Can/will Dems overcome their Wisconsin Geography problem?

[ProgressiveModerate]

One of the biggest stories of 2022 was Dems unexpected gains in state legislatures around the country, specifically flipping the MI and PA state assemblies after years of Republican dominance.

In Wisconsin however, democrats only won 35/99 seats in the lower chamber, and 11/33 in the upper chamber, despite the statewide popular vote when adjusted for uncontested races being essentially tied.

In PA and MI, Dems were largely able to flip the legislature thanks to peeling off a bunch of these suburban seats which had been held by Rs for decades in many cases. This included suburbs of dominant metros like Detroit and Philly, but also of smaller metros like Grand Rapids and Pittsburg.

In Wisconsin however, Dems have not experienced the same suburban gains when it actually comes to seat count. This is largely because the previously super Republican WOW suburbs of Milwaukee have become a bit less R, but overall still lean R, while in Madison, the suburbs have always leaned blue and have only gotten bluer. This is all as their support in the “drift less” region and other rural areas of the state erodes. The WOW “suburbs” are a lot more exurban in nature so there’s a good chance they may never really flip D outside of maybe Waukesha proper.

On a neural partisan-blind map of the WI legislature, Dems will always end up in a pretty deep minority no matter what.

I tend to think Dems are kinda screwed and their best shot at gains would be improving in these smaller cities scattered throughout the state, especially the northeastern part of the state, such as Green Bay, Apple, and Sheboygan.

On the congressional level, part of what’s unfortunate for Dems is the specific number of 8 seats. 8 seats is perfect for making a greater Madison seat and a Milwaukee based seat, with no Dem pockets outside of those large enough to sustain a D leaning CD. Cracking Milwaukee to create a 2nd D leaning state would be hard to do legally given WI-04 is still VRA protected, and cracking Dane County/Madison is just cracking a very coherent community for the sake of partisan gain. Add a 9th seat and a competaive/D leaning Milwaukee seat falls much more naturally as well as a true tossup ductless seat. Take away 1, 2, or even 3 districts and Madison and Milwaukee D leaning districts will still exits.

Long term, do Dems have any hope in the WI legislature?

[Torie]

Why on earth do you think WI-04 is VRA protected? It's only 31% BVAP (just checked), and all the black neighborhoods are nested in it. It may be black performing but it is not VRA protected.

[lfromnj]

Michigan still required a favorable map in Lansing and Ann Arbor  to win the senate.Also the state house splits GR into 5 seats, The core Lansing cities into 5 as well and Washtentaw into 7 despite perfectly nesting in 4.

PA is weird.  The state house is a dem favorable map while state senate is R favorable . The weird thing is that a natural map should be the opposite . Both common sense and computer simulations dictate this( and simulations are a solid measurement for something as large as PA state house)


The reason is because look at the smaller metroes like Harrisburg and Lancaster. In congress they are in an R seat. In the state house they would be naturally packed into 1 to 2 dem seats . The state senate is the ideal configuration of lean D sears across the state which actually gives Democrats a natural advantage .


So yeah Wisconsin almost requires a redraw for Democrats to have a chance and it would need to make a few decisions splitting Dane or Milwaukee into more than 4 and 5 seats respectively somewhere .

[Skill and Chance]

I'm not seeing it.  Unlike MI and PA, I think it's most likely that WI gets fully Ohio-ized with a semi-permanent GOP supermajority than Dems taking a trifecta anytime soon. 

[lfromnj]

I'm not seeing it.  Unlike MI and PA, I think it's most likely that WI gets fully Ohio-ized with a semi-permanent GOP supermajority than Dems taking a trifecta anytime soon. 

What about that state Supreme Court race.

[Torie]

Michigan still required a favorable map in Lansing and Ann Arbor  to win the senate.Also the state house splits GR into 5 seats, The core Lansing cities into 5 as well and Washtentaw into 7 despite perfectly nesting in 4.

PA is weird.  The state house is a dem favorable map while state senate is R favorable . The weird thing is that a natural map should be the opposite . Both common sense and computer simulations dictate this( and simulations are a solid measurement for something as large as PA state house)


The reason is because look at the smaller metroes like Harrisburg and Lancaster. In congress they are in an R seat. In the state house they would be naturally packed into 1 to 2 dem seats . The state senate is the ideal configuration of lean D sears across the state which actually gives Democrats a natural advantage .


So yeah Wisconsin almost requires a redraw for Democrats to have a chance and it would need to make a few decisions splitting Dane or Milwaukee into more than 4 and 5 seats respectively somewhere .

That is interesting as to PA because Cervas, the guy who drew the NYS maps, was the consultant for the drawing of the legislative districts. Perhaps it was a compromise. In NYS, Cervas was excellent in minimizing splits, and very good about erosity. And the map was mostly his, rather than the judge's.

[lfromnj]

Michigan still required a favorable map in Lansing and Ann Arbor  to win the senate.Also the state house splits GR into 5 seats, The core Lansing cities into 5 as well and Washtentaw into 7 despite perfectly nesting in 4.

PA is weird.  The state house is a dem favorable map while state senate is R favorable . The weird thing is that a natural map should be the opposite . Both common sense and computer simulations dictate this( and simulations are a solid measurement for something as large as PA state house)


The reason is because look at the smaller metroes like Harrisburg and Lancaster. In congress they are in an R seat. In the state house they would be naturally packed into 1 to 2 dem seats . The state senate is the ideal configuration of lean D sears across the state which actually gives Democrats a natural advantage .


So yeah Wisconsin almost requires a redraw for Democrats to have a chance and it would need to make a few decisions splitting Dane or Milwaukee into more than 4 and 5 seats respectively somewhere .

That is interesting as to PA because Cervas, the guy who drew the NYS maps, was the consultant for the drawing of the legislative districts. Perhaps it was a compromise. In NYS, Cervas was excellent in minimizing splits, and very good about erosity. And the map was mostly his, rather than the judge's.

Cervas likely was not involved in the pa state senate map beyond instructions. 

[Skill and Chance]

I'm not seeing it.  Unlike MI and PA, I think it's most likely that WI gets fully Ohio-ized with a semi-permanent GOP supermajority than Dems taking a trifecta anytime soon. 

What about that state Supreme Court race.

I think that seat will flip because a total abortion ban is at stake.  I expect many of the ~25% of Midwestern Republicans who are at least somewhat pro-choice will vote for the liberal.  However, I still doubt that a redrawn state legislative map would sweep in a Dem majority in 2024.

[lfromnj]

I'm not seeing it.  Unlike MI and PA, I think it's most likely that WI gets fully Ohio-ized with a semi-permanent GOP supermajority than Dems taking a trifecta anytime soon. 

What about that state Supreme Court race.

I think that seat will flip because a total abortion ban is at stake.  I expect many of the ~25% of Midwestern Republicans who are at least somewhat pro-choice will vote for the liberal.  However, I still doubt that a redrawn state legislative map would sweep in a Dem majority in 2024.

I think you underestimate the hackishness of Wisconsin supreme court justices outside of Hagedorn.

[Skill and Chance]

I'm not seeing it.  Unlike MI and PA, I think it's most likely that WI gets fully Ohio-ized with a semi-permanent GOP supermajority than Dems taking a trifecta anytime soon. 

What about that state Supreme Court race.

I think that seat will flip because a total abortion ban is at stake.  I expect many of the ~25% of Midwestern Republicans who are at least somewhat pro-choice will vote for the liberal.  However, I still doubt that a redrawn state legislative map would sweep in a Dem majority in 2024.

I think you underestimate the hackishness of Wisconsin supreme court justices outside of Hagedorn.

In order to appeal to the ~25%, I think the liberal candidate who gets chosen will be hardline pro-choice but otherwise pretty moderate. 

[lfromnj]

Wisconsin def is an outlier in thst a neutrally drawn map still has a decent chance at a R supermajority
 Only 7 seats are truly safe with an 8th mostly safe seat in Rock County.

For example Michigan should have 6 safe seats in Wayne, 1 mostly safe from Macomb, probably 3 from Oakland, 1 in Ann Arbor, 1 lansing, 1 flint,1 GR,  and 1 kalamazoo or a total of 14 to 15.

[Mr.Phips]

Wisconsin def is an outlier in thst a neutrally drawn map still has a decent chance at a R supermajority
 Only 7 seats are truly safe with an 8th mostly safe seat in Rock County.

For example Michigan should have 6 safe seats in Wayne, 1 mostly safe from Macomb, probably 3 from Oakland, 1 in Ann Arbor, 1 lansing, 1 flint,1 GR,  and 1 kalamazoo or a total of 14 to 15.

Isn’t there 10 basically safe Dem seats in the Wisconsin senate?  The Rock county seat went for Biden by 20 points.  The LaCrosse seat is only up in Presidential years (was Biden + 6 and even Hillary won it by a decent margin)and they would only lose there if Dems started doing even quite a bit worse than Hillary in that area.  Not sure what you are counting as the other non Dem seat?  The Racine-Kenosha seat? That was Biden + 20.

[lfromnj]

Wisconsin def is an outlier in thst a neutrally drawn map still has a decent chance at a R supermajority
 Only 7 seats are truly safe with an 8th mostly safe seat in Rock County.

For example Michigan should have 6 safe seats in Wayne, 1 mostly safe from Macomb, probably 3 from Oakland, 1 in Ann Arbor, 1 lansing, 1 flint,1 GR,  and 1 kalamazoo or a total of 14 to 15.

Isn’t there 10 basically safe Dem seats in the Wisconsin senate?  The Rock county seat went for Biden by 20 points.  The LaCrosse seat is only up in Presidential years (was Biden + 6 and even Hillary won it by a decent margin)and they would only lose there if Dems started doing even quite a bit worse than Hillary in that area.  Not sure what you are counting as the other non Dem seat?  The Racine-Kenosha seat? That was Biden + 20.

The la crosse seat was pretty close last time around. Like within a point.  I'm saying within a neutral drawn map as well. Not the current .

[Mr.Phips]

Wisconsin def is an outlier in thst a neutrally drawn map still has a decent chance at a R supermajority
 Only 7 seats are truly safe with an 8th mostly safe seat in Rock County.

For example Michigan should have 6 safe seats in Wayne, 1 mostly safe from Macomb, probably 3 from Oakland, 1 in Ann Arbor, 1 lansing, 1 flint,1 GR,  and 1 kalamazoo or a total of 14 to 15.

Isn’t there 10 basically safe Dem seats in the Wisconsin senate?  The Rock county seat went for Biden by 20 points.  The LaCrosse seat is only up in Presidential years (was Biden + 6 and even Hillary won it by a decent margin)and they would only lose there if Dems started doing even quite a bit worse than Hillary in that area.  Not sure what you are counting as the other non Dem seat?  The Racine-Kenosha seat? That was Biden + 20.

The la crosse seat was pretty close last time around. Like within a point.  I'm saying within a neutral drawn map as well. Not the current .

I think it was so close last time due to Republicans running a former occupant of the seat and the fact that Dems didn’t do any in person canvassing while Republicans did.

[Nyvin]

Wisconsin def is an outlier in thst a neutrally drawn map still has a decent chance at a R supermajority
 Only 7 seats are truly safe with an 8th mostly safe seat in Rock County.

For example Michigan should have 6 safe seats in Wayne, 1 mostly safe from Macomb, probably 3 from Oakland, 1 in Ann Arbor, 1 lansing, 1 flint,1 GR,  and 1 kalamazoo or a total of 14 to 15.

I don't know how you only get 7 seats,  Milwaukee has enough population for five seats easily and there's really no reason to split it like the GOP did in 2011.   Dane+Rock should be four safe D seats as well.

With Kenosha and Raccine it's either 1 safe D or two tossups.

[lfromnj]

Wisconsin def is an outlier in thst a neutrally drawn map still has a decent chance at a R supermajority
 Only 7 seats are truly safe with an 8th mostly safe seat in Rock County.

For example Michigan should have 6 safe seats in Wayne, 1 mostly safe from Macomb, probably 3 from Oakland, 1 in Ann Arbor, 1 lansing, 1 flint,1 GR,  and 1 kalamazoo or a total of 14 to 15.

I don't know how you only get 7 seats,  Milwaukee has enough population for five seats easily and there's really no reason to split it like the GOP did in 2011.   Dane+Rock should be four safe D seats as well.

With Kenosha and Raccine it's either 1 safe D or two tossups.

I said Dane + Rock is 8 just that Rock isn't 100% Safe although close enough. Milwaukee county has enough for 5 seats but a south county seat could be pretty competitive. The current map honestly isn't that bad for Dems in Milwaukee.  It places Oak Creek and half of Franklin which voted for Trump into a Safe D white Dem Milwaukee seat for some reason. I guess some configurations of Milwaukee could get you all 5 as Safe D.

[Roll Roons]

If I were Wisconsin Democrats, I would also put a lot of focus on Brown, Outagamie and Winnebago Counties. They are a bit redder than the state as a whole, but they are also populous, growing and swung noticeably towards Evers and Barnes this year.

It'll help in statewide races and could net them a couple legislative seats.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why on earth do you think WI-04 is VRA protected? It's only 31% BVAP (just checked), and all the black neighborhoods are nested in it. It may be black performing but it is not VRA protected.

For some reason I always thought it was higher. Whether it's protected or not, cracking Milwaukee which is a very clear COI that nests nicely in a CD would be pretty egregiously

[ProgressiveModerate]

I gave my go at drawing a partisan blind fair WI State Senate map that basically ignores the current lines that were drawn with clear partisan intent. The map broke 19Trump-14Biden, 22Trump-11Clinton, 19Scott-14Evers, and 20Baldwin-13Vukmir.

Still a notable R tilt but not as the current map. The current map basically tries to pack Dems into just 4 Milwaukee seats and makes a proactive effort to crack clear swing seats based around Ew-Claire, Apple, and Green Bay.

The area I feel least sure about is the northeast part of the state due to the relatively weird spread of the cities and counties sort of misaligning with COIs.

The issue for Dems on this map is outside the 6 Biden-won Milwaukee district, there isn't really anywhere for Dems to gain in that area. Dems have to hold the Obama-Trump-Trump seats that have been shifting against them such as the Eau-Claire seat, northern seat, or the Kenosha and Racine based seats.





(2020 Pres numbers used)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9689ecc7-7824-493b-86fb-c1bb13d41aa0

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I actually tried drawing a community of interest-based WI Senate map a bit ago too.



As is often the case in Wisconsin, Democrats get really screwed by the close seats. The Eau Claire-based seat meets the Eau Claire metro perfectly (it's literally all of Eau Claire and Chippewa Counties with no other county) yet is still narrowly Trump (but Evers won it by a good margin and the Democrats held the more Republican current seat Eau Claire is in so it'd probably be a D seat), the Green Bay-based seat ends up narrowly Trump (although ProgressiveModerate showed a narrow Biden seat is possible), the Appleton based seat is narrowly Biden but also voted for Walker by over a point and a larger margin as did likely PM's Green Bay seat (although based on the results in that area Evers probably won both this year and it might've been a D victory if this map was in place and voted on this year), and we each have a narrowly Biden Milwaukee suburb district that would probably be R-held and voted for Walker (although again Evers did much better in that area this time.) However we both have a fairly solid D seat around La Crosse that lfromnj didn't mention.

PlanScore gives mine a likely score of 37% D / 63% R in a neutral year though and has all seats that aren't based in Dane County, Rock County, Milwaukee, La Crosse and Kenosha/Racine as Lean R. And that's not because of gerrymandering. I guess one solace for WI Dems though is there is some evidence that the Fox River Valley is trending left as are some Milwaukee suburbs that are already close (so are the core areas of WOW actually but that's also far too Republican to matter.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

On a side note it's interesting that Wisconsin's so split status is actually due to two rather flukish areas.

If the Milwaukee suburbs voted like the Twin Cities suburbs, Wisconsin would be a solid D state. If you draw a "district" in DRA with WOW removed (equivalent to them being 50/50) you get a 6-point Biden victory...if they leaned D slightly that would probably be about 7 points, aka same as here in Minnesota. And if they voted like Chicago suburbs, it'd be the second safest D state not on the coast.

But if Dane County voted like a more "normal" college town like Eau Claire or La Crosse, it'd be a Lean R state. I also tried drawing removing much of Dane County to adjust for if it gave a D margin that it would at a percentage comparable to those states, and I got a fairly narrow victory for both Trump and Walker. Evers would probably win this year, but he also wouldn't be an incumbent.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wisconsin def is an outlier in thst a neutrally drawn map still has a decent chance at a R supermajority
 Only 7 seats are truly safe with an 8th mostly safe seat in Rock County.

Based on what? 5 seats in Milwaukee and 3 in Dane County is already 8. Even if Dane County only has enough population for two seats fully in it any fair map would still have a third Safe D seat with part of it.

[Sol]

Random WI question: why is Columbia County more conservative than Iowa, Green, and Sauk? Is it just somehow less attractive to Madisonites?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course  we won the Gov race and not a single Incumbent Lost reelection for Senate and only 1 Incumbents D Gov only I'm the H did Incumbents lose

Tammy Baldwin in the ballot will help Biden win in 2o24

[ProgressiveModerate]

On a side note it's interesting that Wisconsin's so split status is actually due to two rather flukish areas.

If the Milwaukee suburbs voted like the Twin Cities suburbs, Wisconsin would be a solid D state. If you draw a "district" in DRA with WOW removed (equivalent to them being 50/50) you get a 6-point Biden victory...if they leaned D slightly that would probably be about 7 points, aka same as here in Minnesota. And if they voted like Chicago suburbs, it'd be the second safest D state not on the coast.

But if Dane County voted like a more "normal" college town like Eau Claire or La Crosse, it'd be a Lean R state. I also tried drawing removing much of Dane County to adjust for if it gave a D margin that it would at a percentage comparable to those states, and I got a fairly narrow victory for both Trump and Walker. Evers would probably win this year, but he also wouldn't be an incumbent.

Oh yeah and that's why I think WI is so fun as a swing state. We're in an era where regional issues/divides/cultures tend not to matter as much on the federal level as raw demographics, but WI is a clear exception making the state trouble but fun.

One thing that's interesting about the WOW counties is that the suburbs don't seem all that dense, especially when compared to how dense Milwaukee proper actually is.

And Madison really lacks true suburbs tbh; there's a very stark cutoff from urban to rural, largely due to the rapidly growing nature of the city.