Are the 2 parties starting to hit "walls" in states that zoomed their way at light speed recently?

[Matty]

If I am not mistaken, all WV house seats swung D in 2022.

Likewise, California GOP held up fairly well compared to what happened elsewhere. (relative to expectations)

Kentucky saw Rand Paul under perform

some other examples

Could the trump years have inorganically/artifically accelerated trends in certain states that overstated just how fast they are changing, and thus we are seeing a bit of a "pause"? 

[ottermax]

It does look like 2022 was a tale of two stories:

Regular voters who were persuaded to vote against extremism, the SCOTUS decision on Dobbs, and Trumpism.

A drop-off in low-turnout voters of both parties who were not engaged in the election cycle. Specifically it looks like places where there were countervailing trends like WV, KY, CA have some thing in common - poorer voters who generally do not show up, especially when economic conditions are poor.

What is unusual about lower turnout in this midterm is that it did not favor Republicans only, it favored different parties in different places - the GOP in NY, FL, and CA where Democrats rely heavily on lower turnout voters of color, and Democrats in the greater Midwest where Republicans have relied on Trump to boost lower turnout conservatives.

The Democrats will need to be wary of expecting this year's strategies to work in a presidential cycle where a strong Trump or Trump-like figure can turn out more voters, and Republicans will need to be wary of an improved turnout operation for Democrats in Black and Latino communities during a presidential year. It's probably healthy for democracy that both parties have this unusual mix of high and low turnout voters that will push both parties to persuade AND excite their voters.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Likewise, California GOP held up fairly well compared to what happened elsewhere. (relative to expectations)
[...]

Could the trump years have inorganically/artifically accelerated trends in certain states that overstated just how fast they are changing, and thus we are seeing a bit of a "pause"?  

I'm getting flashbacks to those couple weeks after the 2020 election when folks made giant hay about California swinging GOP by less than a point

[Person Man]

It does look like 2022 was a tale of two stories:

Regular voters who were persuaded to vote against extremism, the SCOTUS decision on Dobbs, and Trumpism.

A drop-off in low-turnout voters of both parties who were not engaged in the election cycle. Specifically it looks like places where there were countervailing trends like WV, KY, CA have some thing in common - poorer voters who generally do not show up, especially when economic conditions are poor.

What is unusual about lower turnout in this midterm is that it did not favor Republicans only, it favored different parties in different places - the GOP in NY, FL, and CA where Democrats rely heavily on lower turnout voters of color, and Democrats in the greater Midwest where Republicans have relied on Trump to boost lower turnout conservatives.

The Democrats will need to be wary of expecting this year's strategies to work in a presidential cycle where a strong Trump or Trump-like figure can turn out more voters, and Republicans will need to be wary of an improved turnout operation for Democrats in Black and Latino communities during a presidential year. It's probably healthy for democracy that both parties have this unusual mix of high and low turnout voters that will push both parties to persuade AND excite their voters.

Maybe Democracy won by more than we can imagine.