OREGON 2022 ELECTION RESULTS

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Next stop...

Time to take a look at total raw votes by county in Oregon from 2018-2022.

Colors are shaded and numbers based upon total change of votes between '18 and '22.



1.) Multnomah County stands out with 20k less TVs between the '18 and '22 GE.

2.) Other counties which initially appear to have experienced lower total votes between '18 and '22 included heavily DEM counties such as Washington, Benton, and Hood River.

I noticed Bonamici won the Washington County portion of OR-1 by ~5% less than Biden did in 2020 per the NYT. This makes sense given your observations on Republicans having a turnout edge in the Tri-County area. I also remember only seeing Drazan and Perkins signs in residential areas in OR-1 Washington County (in an area where Biden won 70-ish % of the vote), but never saw any Kotek or Wyden signs in residential or commercial areas anywhere in the metro area.

edit: looking more closely at the Congressional map on DRA, it's really obvious why OR-5 went R. Most of Happy Valley is in OR-3, while all of Woodburn and Salem are in OR-6. The only parts of Portland proper in OR-5 are 1) the area west of the Willamette River and east of I-5, and 2) a stretch of precincts west of I-205 hugging the county line that are all south of Reed College. The only part of Clackamas County in OR-6 is the exurb of Wilsonville- not at all surprised that place swung R by double digits in a Biden midterm.

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So while we are still awaiting final official election results from Oregon, including the "Gold Standard" of precinct results, not to mention turnout numbers by party registration, I thought it might be interesting to look at the total registration numbers by political party between 2018 and 2022 by County.

Here is a map which I created of voter registration raw vote numbers coded with Atlas colors (RED=DEM, BLUE=PUB, ORANGE= Everyone Else).

To properly see the map (Unless you are looking at it on a large monitor or flat-screen) you will likely need to either open in a separate browser window or pull it up from my Atlas picture archives.



Coming up, now we have to look at the Oregon map when it comes to overall RV changes by Party between '18-'20-'22.

Thinking maybe just starting with the '18-'22 changes in Party RV by County and skipping the '18-'20 and the '20-'22 RV registration metrics?

Those R registration trends in Washington and Multnomah Counties sure are something. Would not have expected the 2022 R numbers to be lower than both 2018 and 2020.

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-snip-

Those R registration trends in Washington and Multnomah Counties sure are something. Would not have expected the 2022 R numbers to be lower than both 2018 and 2020.

Household income map for most of Metro Portland- the Washington County suburb precincts generally match the "quality" of housing stock; Hillsboro is more uniformly upscale-ish than I would've expected but it explains Hillsboro being somewhat less D than Beaverton. Haven't seen much of Tualatin (OR-6) or most of the Clackamas County suburbs (OR-5), but this map is consistent with what I have seen of housing stock there from the freeways.

No idea if inner Vancouver proper (WA-3) is demographically/socioeconomically better or worse for Dems/GOP than my priors or 2022 House results would've suggested.

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4.) Mid-Valley--- Suspect we might start to see some of the shifts that impacted elections in CD-05 and CD-06?

       A.) Linn County, which overall is a heavily PUB County with significant rural parts now has a huge % of CD-05 vote share, despite the Linn County portions of Albany being toss-up zones, not to mention the precinct representing "West Corvallis" (but outside of City limits).

           Total collapse of DEM RV between '18 and '22, combined with a major increase of PUB RV, quite likely made the difference in the '22 GE CD-05 election.

      B.) Marion County, vast majority of which is located in CD-05 around the Salem-Keizer Metro Area, with some much more heavily PUB rurals in the Southern and Eastern portions of the county, saw net gains for both PUBs and DEMs between '18 and '22, with an even more significant +15.3k RV gain for voters that are NAVs / 3rd Party.

            I am especially interested in looking at Turnout (TO) numbers from here by party registration within the context of the new district in CD-06, as well as precinct results since naturally the Latino population of the city of Salem is a place where swings and TO results might have made the district closer than it should have been.

7.) Clackamas County---

This is naturally ground zero of any Republican statewide candidates attempt to win a statewide election, with a mixture of upper-income inner- Metro PDX suburban areas that have been swinging hard DEM for some time in NW ClackCo, combined with significantly large fast growing suburbs and exurban type places around Happy Valley and Sunnyvale, and then toss in some more traditionally conservative towns in places like Canby and Sandy, and then add a ton of more pure rural precincts in SE ClackCo to the mix.

Still extremely curious about detailed precinct level results from the '22 GE, especially to run against '20 and '18 GE results, in order to check the numbers when it comes to swings within the context of the OR-CD-05 GE numbers.

8.) In short it is still amazing that DEMs can continue to win statewide elections, effectively on the backs of two counties (Multnomah and Washington), while continuing to lose ground in most other counties within Oregon.'

Thoughts Atlas Nation???

For all the talk of double-digit exurban white moderate Boomer R swings in Clackamas County, it seems the Salem area may have been more decisive in both OR-5 and OR-6 being more R than expected given what happened in politically similar states. Although a Mid-Valley R swing in the midterm was to be expected for people familiar with OR.

Very rough congressional vote by county map with no shading because I'm lazy. 

IIRC both the OR-5 and OR-6 portions of Clackamas County went narrowly D which means the OR-3 portion (Happy Valley + various exurbs that are definitely R) must've been quite R for Clackamas County as a whole to be R.

Clackamas county was very close to the point I initially thought Democrats carried it until I pulled the calculator out and confirmed it. It was really the R swing in the Salem metro that cost Dems OR05, and made OR06 very close.