Was it a really stupid take to ever think Gretchen Whitmer was toast?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yes, so obviously. Even at her likely weakest point in the spring she still had a lot going for her...like just look at all her opponents. Dixon wasn't an anomaly in being particularly bad out of that bunch.

[Dani Rose]

GOP candidate quality wasn't the only thing, either, because Bill Schuette wasn't exactly an electoral weakling (even though he was running in a bad year). Whitmer's state is still fundamentally light blue, and the woman herself is obviously an extremely talented politician capable of speaking to local issues that resonate with swing voters. She was never going to be an easy prospect for the GOP to dislodge even in an ideal context.

[wbrocks67]

Many people on this forum were convinced that Whitmer was going to pay a price for COVID-related stuff and that she only win by a few points because she was "polarizing", despite facing off against a terrible opponent who had no money. It never made sense to me.

I'm more interested to hear about Pollster's thoughts though, since he said that behind the scenes it was widely expected as well that Whitmer would only win 2-3 points at best.

[Spectator]

Toast? Sure. But the idea that she could lose wasn’t groundless, particularly in the immediate aftermath of the 2021 elections where things looked extremely dire for Dems in the midterms.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Yes. I do think Craig would have done at least 5 points better if not more but I think the abortion amendment really was toxic to the GOP and he wouldn't have won either

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She was vulnerable but Craig was a Piece Sgt cratered and they had no alternative but to Dixon she was losing early on

[Woody]

I'm sorry, but no way did she win by more than last time. You mean to tell me that after all she did during COVID? Get out of here!

[Spectator]

I'm sorry, but no way did she win by more than last time. You mean to tell me that after all she did during COVID? Get out of here!

You implying Dems stuffed the boxes or something? I would have hoped we’d move on from the denialism after last week, but I guess not

[wbrocks67]

I'm sorry, but no way did she win by more than last time. You mean to tell me that after all she did during COVID? Get out of here!

You implying Dems stuffed the boxes or something? I would have hoped we’d move on from the denialism after last week, but I guess not

Really glad I have some of these people on ignore at this point

[RC (a la Frémont)]

No shot Whitmer was gonna lose after the disqualifications and the Ryan Kelley raids. Only James Craig proved to be formidable in polling, otherwise, it was safe all the way.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

I said it repeatedly here, but it mostly fell on deaf ears: she was never uniquely unpopular. Her approvals ranged from average to very good throughout her tenure. So many people here and elsewhere got caught up in the vitriol that national Republicans were directing at her and assumed that she was in a particularly weak situation when there was no real indication that she was.

A Craig vs. Whitmer race would've been much more interesting, but even with Craig, it was always absolutely absurd to think that she was "toast."

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

GOP candidate quality wasn't the only thing, either, because Bill Schuette wasn't exactly an electoral weakling (even though he was running in a bad year). Whitmer's state is still fundamentally light blue, and the woman herself is obviously an extremely talented politician capable of speaking to local issues that resonate with swing voters. She was never going to be an easy prospect for the GOP to dislodge even in an ideal context.

Ehhhh... he kinda was. He ended up being the most reviled member of the Snyder administration among Democrats and independents, couldn't even get Calley or Snyder to endorse him after the primary, and just comes across as very standoffish and unlikable. Whitmer was going to win regardless, but Calley would've been a noticeably stronger candidate even though Schuette had done well enough in his previous AG races.

[wbrocks67]

I said it repeatedly here, but it mostly fell on deaf ears: she was never uniquely unpopular. Her approvals ranged from average to very good throughout her tenure. So many people here and elsewhere got caught up in the vitriol that national Republicans were directing at her and assumed that she was in a particularly weak situation when there was no real indication that she was.

A Craig vs. Whitmer race would've been much more interesting, but even with Craig, it was always absolutely absurd to think that she was "toast."

Yep, there was one poster in particular who kept saying how Whitmer could only eke it out by a few points because of how unpopular and polarizing she was because of COVID. Yet her approvals told a different story...

[Figueira]

I'm kind of a broken record on this, but it takes A LOT for an incumbent governor of any state, of any party to be "toast". Pretty much every midterm election cycle, people predict that more governors lose than actually end up losing.

[Roll Roons]

I'm kind of a broken record on this, but it takes A LOT for an incumbent governor of any state, of any party to be "toast". Pretty much every midterm election cycle, people predict that more governors lose than actually end up losing.

Yes. So many people thought Laura Kelly would lose because "muh partisanship" but popularity matters a ton for gubernatorial races. A lot of politics is still very local.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm kind of a broken record on this, but it takes A LOT for an incumbent governor of any state, of any party to be "toast". Pretty much every midterm election cycle, people predict that more governors lose than actually end up losing.

Yes. So many people thought Laura Kelly would lose because "muh partisanship" but popularity matters a ton for gubernatorial races. A lot of politics is still very local.

All Kelly needed to win was the R nominee's total number of votes+1. That was a very easy threshold for her to feasibly cross.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm sorry, but no way did she win by more than last time. You mean to tell me that after all she did during COVID? Get out of here!

You implying Dems stuffed the boxes or something? I would have hoped we’d move on from the denialism after last week, but I guess not

This is the "Nixon couldn't have won, all my friends voted for McGovern" of 2022.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I think something that suprised a lot of conservative electoral analysts was just how little relitigating covid-19 pandemic policies had with the electorate. And thought that the intensity of their negative feelings about her had some link to her popularity with the overall electorate.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I thought at worst maybe she would do worse than in 2018 just by virtue of the environment and being a somewhat polarizing figure. And that was even way off. But I never thought she would lose at all.

I agree that given the results and the issues that Michigan voters actually turned out for, she could have defeated Craig too had he been nominated. His campaign would certainly have been better than Dixon's though, yielding a closer result, but not one that would have been too close in the end for Big Gretch.