VA-SEN 2024 megathread

[wbrocks67]

Did... did he forget who is the current governor??

https://twitter.com/HungCao_VA/status/1681740777133690883

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

According to ReleasedKraken, Ed Gillespie was supposed to be a sacrificial lamb who was vanilla enough to limit Republican losses downballot. It appeared to have worked, as Republicans managed to keep the house.

This time, there are no legislative elections. It seems like Kiggans's seat is the only real house seat that could plausibly go either way (the Richmond suburbs are trending left too fast so Spanberger is safe).

[BigZuck08]

Likely D.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

So this is the moderate that's going to win over Biden-Youngkin voters ?


https://twitter.com/RightWingWatch/status/1684582480873938945?t=bc4VNpYJF_O-A5gw...

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah kind of think Hung Cao is going to be damaged goods by election day. On paper, he's a great R candidate; relatively young, immigrant, veteran, kept a Biden + 18 seat close, ect ect.

However, he hasn't made an effort to create a brand that's effectively differed from the national GOP in a state that has become D-leaning federally. He's basically just a generic R in a good wrapping.

[BigZuck08]

So this is the moderate that's going to win over Biden-Youngkin voters ?


https://twitter.com/RightWingWatch/status/1684582480873938945?t=bc4VNpYJF_O-A5gw...

*proceeds to quietly repeal endorsement of Cao*

[Tekken_Guy]

Yeah kind of think Hung Cao is going to be damaged goods by election day. On paper, he's a great R candidate; relatively young, immigrant, veteran, kept a Biden + 18 seat close, ect ect.

However, he hasn't made an effort to create a brand that's effectively differed from the national GOP in a state that has become D-leaning federally. He's basically just a generic R in a good wrapping.

Yeah his close race was mainly a result of Wexton falling asleep at the wheel and some lingering anger at Loudoun County schools. It likely won’t translate to statewide success against Kaine.

[Skill and Chance]

Very strong candidate on paper, but also at great risk of DeSantis-ing himself if he keeps hanging out this much with the online right.

[Miked0920]

Cao is a solid candidate but I don't think the race will be a tossup. Virginia still leans Democratic on a Federal Level more so. Id say Kaine wins from anywhere from a 6-12 point margin.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/maxpcohen/status/1704200361337139311?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4tb...

[S019]

I don't think the standard here should be whether or not Cao can win, and I agree he isn't going to get a 15 point over performance in Northern Virginia again, he could however do well enough to create an environment that is less toxic for downballot Republicans, which is important because Donald Trump is made in a lab to be toxic to Virginia voters, and anything that takes attention away from him is a win for Virginia Republicans.

[MT Treasurer]

Garcia, new to Republican campaigns, launched his bid in January to unseat incumbent U.S. Democratic Senator Tim Kaine. He knew he wouldn’t be successful in defeating Kaine in a swing state unless he shrugged off the Republican primary playbook. Instead, he comes with a pro-unity, pro-working-class message that he hopes will draw moderate Democrats and Republicans to support him in the primary and eventually topple the political giant Kaine has become in Virginia.

It's a strategy that comes as several Republican presidential candidates who have tried to tout unity have exited the race for the White House. Former Vice President Mike Pence sold kindness on the campaign trail after breaking with former President Donald Trump, but he ended his campaign in October. Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., who has previously called himself a biblical leader, ended his presidential bid last month.

https://www.progress-index.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/12/28/eddie-garcia-tim-kaine-nice-guy-republican-2024/71964087007/

VA GOP is easily the smartest blue state GOP. FTR, I don’t think this race is on the table even in a neutral year, but Cao/Garcia at least make it worth keeping an eye on in case Biden loses badly and down-ballot Ds don’t overperform him across the board like many expect.

[S019]

Garcia, new to Republican campaigns, launched his bid in January to unseat incumbent U.S. Democratic Senator Tim Kaine. He knew he wouldn’t be successful in defeating Kaine in a swing state unless he shrugged off the Republican primary playbook. Instead, he comes with a pro-unity, pro-working-class message that he hopes will draw moderate Democrats and Republicans to support him in the primary and eventually topple the political giant Kaine has become in Virginia.

It's a strategy that comes as several Republican presidential candidates who have tried to tout unity have exited the race for the White House. Former Vice President Mike Pence sold kindness on the campaign trail after breaking with former President Donald Trump, but he ended his campaign in October. Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., who has previously called himself a biblical leader, ended his presidential bid last month.

https://www.progress-index.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/12/28/eddie-garcia-tim-kaine-nice-guy-republican-2024/71964087007/

VA GOP is easily the smartest blue state GOP. FTR, I don’t think this race is on the table even in a neutral year, but Cao/Garcia at least make it worth keeping an eye on in case Biden loses badly and down-ballot Ds don’t overperform him across the board like many expect.

It is actually incredible how much they've completely turned the page around from the mid 2010s when they were nominating people like Ken Cucinelli and Corey Stewart for statewide office. Anyways, it is definitely not out of reach for the GOP, but the fear of Trump probably weighs more heavily in Virginia than other reach states.

[wbrocks67]

Garcia, new to Republican campaigns, launched his bid in January to unseat incumbent U.S. Democratic Senator Tim Kaine. He knew he wouldn’t be successful in defeating Kaine in a swing state unless he shrugged off the Republican primary playbook. Instead, he comes with a pro-unity, pro-working-class message that he hopes will draw moderate Democrats and Republicans to support him in the primary and eventually topple the political giant Kaine has become in Virginia.

It's a strategy that comes as several Republican presidential candidates who have tried to tout unity have exited the race for the White House. Former Vice President Mike Pence sold kindness on the campaign trail after breaking with former President Donald Trump, but he ended his campaign in October. Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., who has previously called himself a biblical leader, ended his presidential bid last month.

https://www.progress-index.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/12/28/eddie-garcia-tim-kaine-nice-guy-republican-2024/71964087007/

VA GOP is easily the smartest blue state GOP. FTR, I don’t think this race is on the table even in a neutral year, but Cao/Garcia at least make it worth keeping an eye on in case Biden loses badly and down-ballot Ds don’t overperform him across the board like many expect.

It is actually incredible how much they've completely turned the page around from the mid 2010s when they were nominating people like Ken Cucinelli and Corey Stewart for statewide office. Anyways, it is definitely not out of reach for the GOP, but the fear of Trump probably weighs more heavily in Virginia than other reach states.

Did you miss Cao's abhorrent comments about Wexton? He stands literally no chance whatsoever.

[jamestroll]

The VA GOP is the moderate of the southern Republican parties. It is literally the reason the VA GOP holds on fairly well.

But I will say Cao is over rated. Remember, the 2020 numbers in VA-10 were not actually accurate due to vote misallocation to that district.

Also, Wexton is a bit to much for the district.

All I will say is that HYPOTHETICAL Abortion and Marijuana referendums in VA wouldn't do much better, if at all, than Ohio last year. I could see the marijuana vote especially underperforming in Nova and rural VA is more socially right wing than rural Ohio by a mile.

I am not exactly optimistic about the GOP overall in VA though. Sure, Dems did not perform as well as online people hoped, but they did well enough under an unpopular Dem president with a popular GOP governor.

In general.. when I lived there I found the online narrative that Nova is hard left socially and hard right fiscally to be greatly exgerrated to the point of being an untruth. Remember, the VA GOP hits Democrats hard on social policy in Nova.

If a Democrat gets elected in 2025, except right to work to be repealed in 2026 without much fanfare.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The VA GOP is the moderate of the southern Republican parties. It is literally the reason the VA GOP holds on fairly well.

But I will say Cao is over rated. Remember, the 2020 numbers in VA-10 were not actually accurate due to vote misallocation to that district.

Also, Wexton is a bit to much for the district.

All I will say is that HYPOTHETICAL Abortion and Marijuana referendums in VA wouldn't do much better, if at all, than Ohio last year. I could see the marijuana vote especially underperforming in Nova and rural VA is more socially right wing than rural Ohio by a mile.

I am not exactly optimistic about the GOP overall in VA though. Sure, Dems did not perform as well as online people hoped, but they did well enough under an unpopular Dem president with a popular GOP governor.

In general.. when I lived there I found the online narrative that Nova is hard left socially and hard right fiscally to be greatly exgerrated to the point of being an untruth. Remember, the VA GOP hits Democrats hard on social policy in Nova.

If a Democrat gets elected in 2025, except right to work to be repealed in 2026 without much fanfare.

With regards to NoVa, I also think people understate how diverse it is and also how urban it is. Obv you have the urban neighborhoods right outside DC, but places like Tysons and Reston are getting pretty built up.

[Frodo]

Not unexpected, but welcome nonetheless:

Sen. Tim Kaine will seek reelection in 2024, bringing sigh of relief for Democrats