VA-SEN 2024 megathread

[Sir Mohamed]

Couldn't find one for this race... so Tim Kaine is almost certainly running for reelection. Who could challenge him? I think Youngkin is an obvious contender. While I'd rate this as Lean or Likely D, Youngkin would at least give Kaine a run for his money.

[brucejoel99]

My guess ever since VA-2021 has been that Miyares challenges Kaine in '24, Sears runs to succeed Youngkin as Governor in '25, & Youngkin either challenges Warner once done in '26 or - more likely having presidential delusions of grandeur - returns to the private sector for the ~year between the end of his term & the inevitable declaration of his '28 presidential campaign.

[Suburbia]

Likely D.

I don't think VA will elect a federal Republican

[President Johnson]

I think it's also possible Sears goes for this seat instead of running for governor. Technically, she could still jump into the governor's race after losing to Kaine with a respectable showing.

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... I think Youngkin will want to try for president in 2024 and/or just finish out his term, but 2026 has his name written all over it, particularly if Mark Warner (who will be 75 that year) retires. 

As for 2024, I would imagine Sears and Miyares make a deal where one goes for the senate seat and the other goes for governor, most likely Sears for governor and Miyares for senate. 

From the US House delegation, I suppose it could also be Kiggans.  The other 4 Republican congresspeople all represent heavily rural outlying districts and would struggle with statewide appeal.  Also  note that Hung Cao, the Republican who ran for VA-10 this year, dramatically overperformed, doing almost as well as Youngkin in the CD.  This suggests he could have a statewide future.  The best thing might be to run for one of the outer NOVA state senate seats in 2023 first.  There are a couple in the Loudoun area that should be an easier lift for him than VA-10. 

The final possibility is someone from the state legislature.  This is intriguing as there are several people who have successfully held down Biden +10 seats and could reasonably have statewide appeal.  However, there are also several Mastriano-type crazy people from rural seats who would basically forfeit it on day 1.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Youngkin isn't running against Trump or DeSantis , if Trump is indicted Pence said he will run or Ted Cruz and Crenshaw will run for S

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hmmm... I think Youngkin will want to try for president in 2024 and/or just finish out his term, but 2026 has his name written all over it, particularly if Mark Warner (who will be 75 that year) retires.  

As for 2024, I would imagine Sears and Miyares make a deal where one goes for the senate seat and the other goes for governor, most likely Sears for governor and Miyares for senate.  

From the US House delegation, I suppose it could also be Kiggans.  The other 4 Republican congresspeople all represent heavily rural outlying districts and would struggle with statewide appeal.  Also  note that Hung Cao, the Republican who ran for VA-10 this year, dramatically overperformed, doing almost as well as Youngkin in the CD.  This suggests he could have a statewide future.  The best thing might be to run for one of the outer NOVA state senate seats in 2023 first.  There are a couple in the Loudoun area that should be an easier lift for him than VA-10.  

The final possibility is someone from the state legislature.  This is intriguing as there are several people who have successfully held down Biden +10 seats and could reasonably have statewide appeal.  However, there are also several Mastriano-type crazy people from rural seats who would basically forfeit it on day 1.

Debbie STABENOW is 77 and she is running and Warner isn't retiring if McConnell is 80

[Sir Mohamed]

I think it's also possible Sears goes for this seat instead of running for governor. Technically, she could still jump into the governor's race after losing to Kaine with a respectable showing.

I think it's more likely Sears runs for gov in 2025. She'd have a chance, especially if Biden is still prez. Youngkin is a better bet, imho. That a given, though, he might also angle for the VP slot or a cabinet position under a possible POTUS DeSantis.

[David Hume]

Hmmm... I think Youngkin will want to try for president in 2024 and/or just finish out his term, but 2026 has his name written all over it, particularly if Mark Warner (who will be 75 that year) retires. 

As for 2024, I would imagine Sears and Miyares make a deal where one goes for the senate seat and the other goes for governor, most likely Sears for governor and Miyares for senate. 

From the US House delegation, I suppose it could also be Kiggans.  The other 4 Republican congresspeople all represent heavily rural outlying districts and would struggle with statewide appeal.  Also  note that Hung Cao, the Republican who ran for VA-10 this year, dramatically overperformed, doing almost as well as Youngkin in the CD.  This suggests he could have a statewide future.  The best thing might be to run for one of the outer NOVA state senate seats in 2023 first.  There are a couple in the Loudoun area that should be an easier lift for him than VA-10. 

The final possibility is someone from the state legislature.  This is intriguing as there are several people who have successfully held down Biden +10 seats and could reasonably have statewide appeal.  However, there are also several Mastriano-type crazy people from rural seats who would basically forfeit it on day 1.

Depends on the situation of 2024. If DeSantis comfortably leads Trump in most polls, and there are no sign that Trump will do something extremely stupid like run a third party, it is very likely that DeSantis wins the nomination, and likely presidency. In that case, there is no point for Youngkin to run, and in 2026, it would be hard for him to win the senate race in a DeSantis midterm. Then his best bet is to run for senate in 2024. If he wins, Sears could serve for one year as governor and have some incumbency advantage. If he lose, he can either continue to serve, or arrange a prominent cabinet position.

[S019]

This is pretty close to Safe D without Youngkin, and I think he’d struggle to win too and Kaine has a history of winning tough races.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hmmm... I think Youngkin will want to try for president in 2024 and/or just finish out his term, but 2026 has his name written all over it, particularly if Mark Warner (who will be 75 that year) retires.  

As for 2024, I would imagine Sears and Miyares make a deal where one goes for the senate seat and the other goes for governor, most likely Sears for governor and Miyares for senate.  

From the US House delegation, I suppose it could also be Kiggans.  The other 4 Republican congresspeople all represent heavily rural outlying districts and would struggle with statewide appeal.  Also  note that Hung Cao, the Republican who ran for VA-10 this year, dramatically overperformed, doing almost as well as Youngkin in the CD.  This suggests he could have a statewide future.  The best thing might be to run for one of the outer NOVA state senate seats in 2023 first.  There are a couple in the Loudoun area that should be an easier lift for him than VA-10.  

The final possibility is someone from the state legislature.  This is intriguing as there are several people who have successfully held down Biden +10 seats and could reasonably have statewide appeal.  However, there are also several Mastriano-type crazy people from rural seats who would basically forfeit it on day 1.

Mark Warner is 67 and will be 71 in 2026, we had a 49 yr old in Tim Ryan and voters rejected him

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hmmm... I think Youngkin will want to try for president in 2024 and/or just finish out his term, but 2026 has his name written all over it, particularly if Mark Warner (who will be 75 that year) retires.  

As for 2024, I would imagine Sears and Miyares make a deal where one goes for the senate seat and the other goes for governor, most likely Sears for governor and Miyares for senate.  

From the US House delegation, I suppose it could also be Kiggans.  The other 4 Republican congresspeople all represent heavily rural outlying districts and would struggle with statewide appeal.  Also  note that Hung Cao, the Republican who ran for VA-10 this year, dramatically overperformed, doing almost as well as Youngkin in the CD.  This suggests he could have a statewide future.  The best thing might be to run for one of the outer NOVA state senate seats in 2023 first.  There are a couple in the Loudoun area that should be an easier lift for him than VA-10.  

The final possibility is someone from the state legislature.  This is intriguing as there are several people who have successfully held down Biden +10 seats and could reasonably have statewide appeal.  However, there are also several Mastriano-type crazy people from rural seats who would basically forfeit it on day 1.

Depends on the situation of 2024. If DeSantis comfortably leads Trump in most polls, and there are no sign that Trump will do something extremely stupid like run a third party, it is very likely that DeSantis wins the nomination, and likely presidency. In that case, there is no point for Youngkin to run, and in 2026, it would be hard for him to win the senate race in a DeSantis midterm. Then his best bet is to run for senate in 2024. If he wins, Sears could serve for one year as governor and have some incumbency advantage. If he lose, he can either continue to serve, or arrange a prominent cabinet position.

Rs have zero chance on Prez 24 or 28 Biden in 24 and Wes Moore in 28 we have 290 EC votes including AZ Govs and WI, MI and PA netted Ds in the state legislature Rs have to win blue states not just OH, FL and TX as my signature states

[ProgressiveModerate]

I somehow feel like this race is going to be extremely overhyped like CO and WA this cycle. Rs get some "strong moderate" to run but a federal election in a Pres year with Pres turnout in VA is going to be very difficult for Rs.

An Rs path to victory on the federal level would have to be slightly different than Youngkin's. Youngkin's victory can in part be attributed to low turnout in Dem areas and amongst blacks which by default isn't going to be the case in 2024. Rs would really have to do well in the outer NOVA suburbs and VA Beach, alongside matching Trump in the Appalachian part of the state.

[Skill and Chance]

I somehow feel like this race is going to be extremely overhyped like CO and WA this cycle. Rs get some "strong moderate" to run but a federal election in a Pres year with Pres turnout in VA is going to be very difficult for Rs.

This is why I think Youngkin needs to wait for 2026 and hope Biden gets reelected.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I somehow feel like this race is going to be extremely overhyped like CO and WA this cycle. Rs get some "strong moderate" to run but a federal election in a Pres year with Pres turnout in VA is going to be very difficult for Rs.

This is why I think Youngkin needs to wait for 2026 and hope Biden gets reelected.

I agree. I don't think VA is completely gone on the federal level for Rs in a midterm cycle with favorable turnout dynamics. But in a Pres cycle it's gone unless theres an R tsunami

[Schiff for Senate]

I somehow feel like this race is going to be extremely overhyped like CO and WA this cycle. Rs get some "strong moderate" to run but a federal election in a Pres year with Pres turnout in VA is going to be very difficult for Rs.

This is why I think Youngkin needs to wait for 2026 and hope Biden gets reelected.

Agreed with both this post and the one that it quotes. Of course, if the GOP wins the presidency in 2024 - which is also very possible - then Youngkin's in a tough position (running for reelection isn't possible, as we all are likely well aware, since VA prohibits incumbent governors from seeking reelection).

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lean/Likely D if the Republicans nominate Youngkin, which isn't going to happen. Safe D with any other candidate.

[Suburbia]

Likely D

[Ljube]

Likely D and it is not going to be seriously contested by the Republicans.

[jamestroll]

We are going to probably end up hearing about this race with Kaine winning fairly handily at the end.

Virginia is not really showing signs of trending Republican and much of the never trump layer has reverted back to Republicans, but that did not stop the Democrats from winning the state popular vote this cycle. Someone like Kaine could easily attract some of the never trump voters as well.

Kaine will probably outran Biden by a few points. Kaine by 6 to 8 is my early guess.

[Mr.Phips]

We are going to probably end up hearing about this race with Kaine winning fairly handily at the end.

Virginia is not really showing signs of trending Republican and much of the never trump layer has reverted back to Republicans, but that did not stop the Democrats from winning the state popular vote this cycle. Someone like Kaine could easily attract some of the never trump voters as well.

Kaine will probably outran Biden by a few points. Kaine by 6 to 8 is my early guess.

You actually think Biden only wins VA by 3-6?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All of these races are Safe D especially with Trump, because Trump has similar Approvals as Biden or lower 46 percent

[jamestroll]

We are going to probably end up hearing about this race with Kaine winning fairly handily at the end.

Virginia is not really showing signs of trending Republican and much of the never trump layer has reverted back to Republicans, but that did not stop the Democrats from winning the state popular vote this cycle. Someone like Kaine could easily attract some of the never trump voters as well.

Kaine will probably outran Biden by a few points. Kaine by 6 to 8 is my early guess.

You actually think Biden only wins VA by 3-6?

Assuming a tied national popular vote, Yes.

[Mr.Phips]

We are going to probably end up hearing about this race with Kaine winning fairly handily at the end.

Virginia is not really showing signs of trending Republican and much of the never trump layer has reverted back to Republicans, but that did not stop the Democrats from winning the state popular vote this cycle. Someone like Kaine could easily attract some of the never trump voters as well.

Kaine will probably outran Biden by a few points. Kaine by 6 to 8 is my early guess.

You actually think Biden only wins VA by 3-6?

Assuming a tied national popular vote, Yes.

You’re assuming a tied popular vote? 

[jamestroll]

We are going to probably end up hearing about this race with Kaine winning fairly handily at the end.

Virginia is not really showing signs of trending Republican and much of the never trump layer has reverted back to Republicans, but that did not stop the Democrats from winning the state popular vote this cycle. Someone like Kaine could easily attract some of the never trump voters as well.

Kaine will probably outran Biden by a few points. Kaine by 6 to 8 is my early guess.

You actually think Biden only wins VA by 3-6?

Assuming a tied national popular vote, Yes.

You’re assuming a tied popular vote? 

I have a hunch a non-Trump may tie or even win the national popular vote in 2024, but it is very early.

Virginia is not going to vote dramatically to the left of country.