VA-SEN 2024 megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kaine running again is good news for Republicans because they now won’t light money on fire (even if only because of lazy Cook Political Report logic) on what was always going to be an unwinnable race with any D/R candidate.

IDK... Youngkin vs. progressive wing Dem who narrowly won the primary with an R winning (nationwide) at the top of the ticket?

VA is not the type of the state where a progressive-wing Democrat would be able to forge a path to victory in a primary except in truly extraordinary circumstances where the D field is split and the state/national party doesn’t unite behind a challenger; it’s (still) the type of state where an establishment-backed candidate would absolutely dominate a primary contest.

As far as the GE is concerned, even a victorious Republican presidential candidate will probably lose VA by 6-8 points — not sure where the votes are for any Republican to overcome that margin? What type of Biden/Dem-2022 voter is going to be convinced to make Mitch McConnell Majority Leader? The entire race would be about as competitive (and just as overhyped) as IA-SEN 2020.

People are reading way too much into Youngkin's rather underwhelming (given the overall circumstances and environment he was running in) win. It was not a harbinger of some overall shift of the state becoming more competitive at the federal level. It’s still a D-trending state — not/no longer as rapidly as GA, but there are no encouraging signs whatsoever in any of NoVA/Richmond metro/Hampton Roads for the GOP.

This entire "Republicans swept all VA row offices in 2021" hype is basically this cycle's equivalent of "Democrats swept three out of four districts in Iowa in 2018, and yet you’re acting like it’s a red state!"

The RS need AZ, OH, WV, and MT and either PA, WI or VA to crack the Blue wall the RS couldn't defeat one D incumbent in 22 in the S the RS I don't care how red the States are aren't winning 3/5 Senate seats with 3.5 percent unemployment when Trump is losing by 9 pts to Biden LoL

Oh Brown Tester and Manchin are in red states they are gonna lose when has the RS won the PVI not just the H but the natl PVI 2014 when all the states except CO were Red in the S but OH, MT, WV Brown, Tester have survived since 2006 and Manchin is holding Byrd seat

[jamestroll]

Kaine running again is good news for Republicans because they now won’t light money on fire (even if only because of lazy Cook Political Report logic) on what was always going to be an unwinnable race with any D/R candidate.

IDK... Youngkin vs. progressive wing Dem who narrowly won the primary with an R winning (nationwide) at the top of the ticket?

VA is not the type of the state where a progressive-wing Democrat would be able to forge a path to victory in a primary except in truly extraordinary circumstances where the D field is split and the state/national party doesn’t unite behind a challenger; it’s (still) the type of state where an establishment-backed candidate would absolutely dominate a primary contest.

As far as the GE is concerned, even a victorious Republican presidential candidate will probably lose VA by 6-8 points — not sure where the votes are for any Republican to overcome that margin? What type of Biden/Dem-2022 voter is going to be convinced to make Mitch McConnell Majority Leader? The entire race would be about as competitive (and just as overhyped) as IA-SEN 2020.

People are reading way too much into Youngkin's rather underwhelming (given the overall circumstances and environment he was running in) win. It was not a harbinger of some overall shift of the state becoming more competitive at the federal level. It’s still a D-trending state — not/no longer as rapidly as GA, but there are no encouraging signs whatsoever in any of NoVA/Richmond metro/Hampton Roads for the GOP.

This entire "Republicans swept all VA row offices in 2021" hype is basically this cycle's equivalent of "Democrats swept three out of four districts in Iowa in 2018, and yet you’re acting like it’s a red state!"

From an outsider perspective, what are your thoughts on:

Could a progressive win statewide in Virginia?

My thought is in almost all  cases a progressive would beat a hard conservative, but would struggle against youngkin types and would need a good environment for Democrats.

But it's a a hypothetical that would be hard to see in real life. It's not like suburban liberals and blacks are lining up and flocking ready to support a progressive candidate.

I bet in 2025 Spanberger will wipe the floor with whatever progressive challenger she has in the primary

[Ragnaroni]

This is a safe D seat, why bother?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a safe D seat, why bother?

They think since Youngkin won VA is a red state and thought Kaine was gonna retire and they think Warner is gonna retire or l ose in 26 and Manchin, Carper and Brown are 70 and Warmer, Kaine, Klobuchar and Baldwin and Rosen are 60 they're not losing RS aren't gonna win OH, MT, WV, AZ and VA or WI they couldn't defeat 1 D incumbency in 22 it's 3.5 unemployment

RS are gonna have trouble in MS, KY and LA Southern Gov races Reeves is only up 2, he should be up 10 MS isn't Safe R Reeves only won by 5 in 2019 if they are having problems in MS Gov how are the RS gonna beat Brown and he has survive since 2006 and Cook rates OH Lean D

If anyone loses on 26 it's Collins she won by 8 in 20 because she voted for stimulus check, she Filibustered Voting Rights after Biden got into office

[Ragnaroni]

This is a safe D seat, why bother?

They think since Youngkin won VA is a red state and thought Kaine was gonna retire and they think Warner is gonna retire or l ose in 26 and Manchin, Carper and Brown are 70 and Warmer, Kaine, Klobuchar and Baldwin and Rosen are 60 they're not losing RS aren't gonna win OH, MT, WV, AZ and VA or WI they couldn't defeat 1 D incumbency in 22 it's 3.5 unemployment

RS are gonna have trouble in MS, KY and LA Southern Gov races Reeves is only up 2, he should be up 10 MS isn't Safe R Reeves only won by 5 in 2019 if they are having problems in MS Gov how are the RS gonna beat Brown and he has survive since 2006 and Cook rates OH Lean D

If anyone loses on 26 it's Collins she won by 8 in 20 because she voted for stimulus check, she Filibustered Voting Rights after Biden got into office

If there's one thing I find both admirable and stupid about Republicans its that they feel that they can win races in states where in reality they can't.

[Agafin]

Calling Youngkin's 2021's win an "underperformance" is quite the take.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a safe D seat, why bother?

They think since Youngkin won VA is a red state and thought Kaine was gonna retire and they think Warner is gonna retire or l ose in 26 and Manchin, Carper and Brown are 70 and Warmer, Kaine, Klobuchar and Baldwin and Rosen are 60 they're not losing RS aren't gonna win OH, MT, WV, AZ and VA or WI they couldn't defeat 1 D incumbency in 22 it's 3.5 unemployment

RS are gonna have trouble in MS, KY and LA Southern Gov races Reeves is only up 2, he should be up 10 MS isn't Safe R Reeves only won by 5 in 2019 if they are having problems in MS Gov how are the RS gonna beat Brown and he has survive since 2006 and Cook rates OH Lean D

If anyone loses on 26 it's Collins she won by 8 in 20 because she voted for stimulus check, she Filibustered Voting Rights after Biden got into office

If there's one thing I find both admirable and stupid about Republicans its that they feel that they can win races in states where in reality they can't.

They would won but they Filibuster Voting Rights and the minimum wage has been 7.50 not 13 an hr sjnce 2006 that Bush W raised  from 5.15 and Rs have held the H for 16/20 yrs and Boehner refused to do it 2011/2015

Collins won in 20 due to voting for Stimulus checks once Biden got into office she Filibuster Voting Rights and Jared Golden whom is definitely running against her will use it against her or whomever runs

[jamestroll]

Calling Youngkin's 2021's win an "underperformance" is quite the take.

Did people really think that Biden 2020 was the baseline?

We had a Republican candidate running perhaps one of the best campaigns I have ever seen. Just reasonable enough to win just enough suburbanites and trumpy enough to keep the base in line.

Contrary to popular belief, there were many many votes in rural Virginia that the GOP could get.

We had a Democratic candidate running a covid and trump based campaign in a pragmatic pro business state after being screamed at by Northam that we can return to normal with vaccines.

States with far heavier partisanship have elected opposite party governors and senators.

The Democrats ran literally the worst campaigns I have ever seen from serious candidates, and the Republicans won the best I have ever seen.

It was not a remotely remarkable result.


Looking forward to 2025, Democrats would be clearly favored. less so if Biden wins again, but still favored. I could see Sears winning governor, Miyares probably not though for the GOP.

I largely agree with MtTreasurer range. The Democrats will carry VA by like 5 to 8 points in 2024 barring unforeseen circumstances.

[jamestroll]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/10/26/terry-mcauliffe-keeps-inflating-coronavirus-numbers/

Literally lying about covid numbers and death.  He was basically Dr. Fingle Dingle.

Needless to say I regret stating " you will defeat Glenn Trumpkin" on twitter on the night when Youngkin won the nomination. I hope I hope I didn't give him that idea.

[Spectator]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/10/26/terry-mcauliffe-keeps-inflating-coronavirus-numbers/

Literally lying about covid numbers and death.  He was basically Dr. Fingle Dingle.

Needless to say I regret stating " you will defeat Glenn Trumpkin" on twitter on the night when Youngkin won the nomination. I hope I hope I didn't give him that idea.

I think you may need to see a therapist bro

[Frodo]

I will be satisfied if he serves one more term before calling it quits in 2030.  Same applies to Sen. Mark Warner if he decides to run one more time in 2026, and then retires in 2032:

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1616463869785870337

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Petition to rename this thread Fools Gold

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kaine and Warner and Brown are only 70 yrs young they can serve as long as they want all the RS all elderly

[Ragnaroni]

Another "Ragnaroni rants about Virginia" thread yes yes.

But the state could be a surprise right? I mean Youngkin won by a little bit and if disatisfaction at Biden is high enough. What says the seat shouldn't be close? 2018 was generally speaking a hostile year towards the GOP.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

VA isn't gonna move right in a Prez yr

[jamestroll]

Another "Ragnaroni rants about Virginia" thread yes yes.

But the state could be a surprise right? I mean Youngkin won by a little bit and if disatisfaction at Biden is high enough. What says the seat shouldn't be close? 2018 was generally speaking a hostile year towards the GOP.

It is fools gold at this point in time.

Petition to rename this thread Fools Gold

Correct!

My take is that if the GOP did not have easier paths to the Senate and Presidency, Virginia would be more winnable for the GOP as they would be forced to spend and invest in VA if places like Michigan and Wisconsin were out of reach for the GOP.

And what is it with blue California avatars obsessed with VA going GOP?

The GOP did well in 2021 because Democrats were campaigning like VA was Maryland or AOC's district and told voters they shouldn't be upset about school closures, business impacts, and MASKS in a pro business southern cultured state.

[jamestroll]

Petition to rename this thread Fools Gold

DeSatanist is going to not play well in Virginia at all. He is a buffoon like trump. He will have a high floor, but will do far far far worse than Youngkin.

[Ragnaroni]

Another "Ragnaroni rants about Virginia" thread yes yes.

But the state could be a surprise right? I mean Youngkin won by a little bit and if disatisfaction at Biden is high enough. What says the seat shouldn't be close? 2018 was generally speaking a hostile year towards the GOP.

It is fools gold at this point in time.

Petition to rename this thread Fools Gold

Correct!

My take is that if the GOP did not have easier paths to the Senate and Presidency, Virginia would be more winnable for the GOP as they would be forced to spend and invest in VA if places like Michigan and Wisconsin were out of reach for the GOP.

And what is it with blue California avatars obsessed with VA going GOP?

The GOP did well in 2021 because Democrats were campaigning like VA was Maryland or AOC's district and told voters they shouldn't be upset about school closures, business impacts, and MASKS in a pro business southern cultured state.

I need some state with a chance of flipping GOP to look forwards to, California is never ever gonna vote within 7.5% GOP. Plus it makes the South look better on the map (when the entire South votes red ala Bush '04).

Also you seem to imply there's more than one blue CA user who is. Are there more?

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/ScottTParkinson/status/1642888360476770305

Parkinson is the Club For Growth Vice President of Government Affairs.

He joins author and constitutional litigator Jonathon Emord as a declared GOP candidate. A third candidate, Attorney Chuck Smith, the nominee for VA-3 in 2010, and a two-time candidate for Attorney General has filed paperwork already.

Emord already has endorsements from Ron Paul and Barry Goldwater Jr, apparently.

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/ScottTParkinson/status/1642888360476770305
Parkinson is the Club For Growth Vice President of Government Affairs.

He joins author and constitutional litigator Jonathon Emord as a declared GOP candidate. A third candidate, Attorney Chuck Smith, the nominee for VA-3 in 2010, and a two-time candidate for Attorney General has filed paperwork already.

Emord already has endorsements from Ron Paul and Barry Goldwater Jr, apparently.

I lost five minutes of my life reading his bio on his website and have reached the conclusion he will lose by double digits. He had the tone-deafness to rail against the “swamp” despite being a staffer on the hill for 18 years.

[coloradocowboi]

https://twitter.com/ScottTParkinson/status/1642888360476770305
Parkinson is the Club For Growth Vice President of Government Affairs.

He joins author and constitutional litigator Jonathon Emord as a declared GOP candidate. A third candidate, Attorney Chuck Smith, the nominee for VA-3 in 2010, and a two-time candidate for Attorney General has filed paperwork already.

Emord already has endorsements from Ron Paul and Barry Goldwater Jr, apparently.

I lost five minutes of my life reading his bio on his website and have reached the conclusion he will lose by double digits. He had the tone-deafness to rail against the “swamp” despite being a staffer on the hill for 18 years.

Knowing how the people at the C4G operate, they won't understand the irony one bit. After all, this is coming to us from the same folks who gave us Blake Masters and David McCormick. They seem to think that the "real America" wants defenders of capitalism who defend with daddy's money. Cuz if there is anything that is gonna solve the GOP's crisis of relevancy in a diversifying America, it's the kid who inexplicably wore suits to class in high school and annoyed everybody

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/catargetbot0001/status/1677085300445843457?s=61&t=J4ObZw...

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/catargetbot0001/status/1677085300445843457?s=61&t=J4ObZw...

Doubt it will work in a presidential year, but he's a reasonably strong candidate.  He made a Biden +18 district about as close as Spanberger's Biden +7 district for congress last year. 

[Aurelius2]

Wish Cao would run against Wexton again or, even better, carpetbag to Spanberger's district. This is a no-hope race. However, at the very least he should be able to force the Dems to waste a bunch of money in VA that they'd rather be able to use elsewhere.

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/catargetbot0001/status/1677085300445843457?s=61&t=J4ObZw...

Doubt it will work in a presidential year, but he's a reasonably strong candidate.  He made a Biden +18 district about as close as Spanberger's Biden +7 district for congress last year.  

Will not HAPPEN against KAINE.

It would be reasonable to think that Virginia Senate may be competitive in 2026 under a re-elected Joe Biden.

Mark Warner being an unbeatable TITAN has been over rated after the 2008 elections.

He Was Expected To Win By Like 20 Points in 2020, he did not! lol.

An open seat could be very competitive, but despite what the ONLINE RIGHT thinks: TRUMPkin 2021 is not necessarily a baseline of the state.