VA-SEN 2024 megathread

[Spectator]

There has been way too much ink spilled over what will be a Safe D race in a presidential year.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1616179114641133569?cxt=HHwWgsC42fCV6e0...

Hmm…

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1616179114641133569?cxt=HHwWgsC42fCV6e0...

Hmm…

Democrats can certainly hold it without him of course..

This would be a classic 51 to 48 or 52 to 47 open seat race. In favor of Democrats

[Suburbia]

I won't be surprised if he retires. He had a good run. Lieutenant Governor, Governor, 2008 VP finalist, DNC chair, Virginia Senator, 2016 Democratic VP choice.

He should retire.

Youngkin won't run. I can see George Allen making another run....

Youngkin I can see running against Warner in 2026

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1616179114641133569?cxt=HHwWgsC42fCV6e0...

Hmm…

Democrats can certainly hold it without him of course..

This would be a classic 51 to 48 or 52 to 47 open seat race. In favor of Democrats

IDK Dems probably don't want his retirement to come while Youngkin is still the incumbent.  He legit might go for it if state senate stays Dem after 2023. 

[Zedonathin2020]

Would be the most surprising retirement of the cycle if he goes through with it.

Likely D. Lean D if Youngkin decides to run for some reason.

[Kabam]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1616179114641133569?cxt=HHwWgsC42fCV6e0...

Hmm…

Democrats can certainly hold it without him of course..

This would be a classic 51 to 48 or 52 to 47 open seat race. In favor of Democrats

Not even this. There are like 7 seats, which would likely flip before Virginia.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Rmbr there's a good chance Youngkin would've make it past a hypothetical Senate primary without ceding a lot to the far-right. It seems like he'd have a very hard time not ending up as damaged good.

Also reminder that on more normal turnout patterns, McAuliffe would've narrowly won. Youngkin winning is a Pres year at the federal level would still be a pretty uphill battle. Rmbr that VA voted for Biden by more than IA and OH voted for the Donald

[Storr]

I'm gonna go ahead and say it: Elaine Luria for Senate!!

[2016]

If Kaine retires here are the four Republicans I am keeping an eye on:

Congressman Rob Wittman
Former Congressman Scott Taylor
State Senator & 2017 Lt. Governor Nominee + Youngkin Ally Jill Vogel
State Attorney General Jason Miyares

and there is one Wild Card. 2020 Senate Nominee Daniel Gade.

Youngkin himself won't run I think. He is waiting for Warner to retire in 2026.

[TML]

I'm gonna go ahead and say it: Elaine Luria for Senate!!

Someone who won't even support a Congressional stock trading ban and thus allowed her opponent to outflank her from the left on this issue? No thanks!

[Epaminondas]

When is the last time a <70 year old Senator has made ructions about "being unsure of running again", then actually retiring?

Kaine is just preparing to go on his begging/fundraising round, which is hard for him as a bland unmemorable politico.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

When is the last time a <70 year old Senator has made ructions about "being unsure of running again", then actually retiring?

Kaine is just preparing to go on his begging/fundraising round, which is hard for him as a bland unmemorable politico.

Some people like Rob Portman, Stabenow are unsatisfied with the state of a divided Congress in a Post Pandemic world and the challenges we gave itsca totally different world than a Pre Pandemic one now this wasn't a normal recession it was a Pandemic

They asked Portman to run for reelection he said he wants to get back home in this Pandemic world

[Sir Mohamed]

If Kaine retires here are the four Republicans I am keeping an eye on:

Congressman Rob Wittman
Former Congressman Scott Taylor
State Senator & 2017 Lt. Governor Nominee + Youngkin Ally Jill Vogel
State Attorney General Jason Miyares

and there is one Wild Card. 2020 Senate Nominee Daniel Gade.

Youngkin himself won't run I think. He is waiting for Warner to retire in 2026.

Why should Kaine retire? His just 66 in 2024.

[wbrocks67]

Hasn't Kaine had some health issues too? Maybe he's just ready to move on.

[wbrocks67]

Kaine's running. No reason for this dog and pony show today then.

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1616455740931047426

[Sir Mohamed]

Kaine's running. No reason for this dog and pony show today then.

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1616455740931047426

Good. Endorsed.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He wasn't going anywhere

[Mr.Phips]

Ok I wasn’t worried about holding the seat, but was a little worried about Spanberger running and having to spend to hold VA-07 without her.  Was also a bit worried about Luria running and taking her out of the running for VA-02.

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1616179114641133569?cxt=HHwWgsC42fCV6e0...

Hmm…

Democrats can certainly hold it without him of course..

This would be a classic 51 to 48 or 52 to 47 open seat race. In favor of Democrats

IDK Dems probably don't want his retirement to come while Youngkin is still the incumbent.  He legit might go for it if state senate stays Dem after 2023. 

If Kaine declined re-election and Youngkin ran, Democrats would probably have had to use Spanberger.

Virginia is quite unique in which a Manchin type dem, a generic D, or a progressive would all be acceptable for Democrats. I also do not want to a hear a progressive can not win statewide in Virginia. I am pretty damn sure that a progressive would defeat a hard conservative there.

its basically a small sigh of relief for Democrats that Kaine is running for reelection. He can approach or get to Biden's 2020 margins there. Otherwise it would have been a contested race.

It will be interesting to see where Michigan or Virginia vote more Dem going forward.

[MT Treasurer]

Kaine running again is good news for Republicans because they now won’t light money on fire (even if only because of lazy Cook Political Report logic) on what was always going to be an unwinnable race with any D/R candidate.

[Skill and Chance]

Kaine running again is good news for Republicans because they now won’t light money on fire (even if only because of lazy Cook Political Report logic) on what was always going to be an unwinnable race with any D/R candidate.

IDK... Youngkin vs. progressive wing Dem who narrowly won the primary with an R winning (nationwide) at the top of the ticket?

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Back to not paying attention to this race. Safe Kaine

[jamestroll]

I think Tim Kaine could well win Virginia Beach. Controversial I know.

[MT Treasurer]

Kaine running again is good news for Republicans because they now won’t light money on fire (even if only because of lazy Cook Political Report logic) on what was always going to be an unwinnable race with any D/R candidate.

IDK... Youngkin vs. progressive wing Dem who narrowly won the primary with an R winning (nationwide) at the top of the ticket?

VA is not the type of the state where a progressive-wing Democrat would be able to forge a path to victory in a primary except in truly extraordinary circumstances where the D field is split and the state/national party doesn’t unite behind a challenger; it’s (still) the type of state where an establishment-backed candidate would absolutely dominate a primary contest.

As far as the GE is concerned, even a victorious Republican presidential candidate will probably lose VA by 6-8 points — not sure where the votes are for any Republican to overcome that margin? What type of Biden/Dem-2022 voter is going to be convinced to make Mitch McConnell Majority Leader? The entire race would be about as competitive (and just as overhyped) as IA-SEN 2020.

People are reading way too much into Youngkin's rather underwhelming (given the overall circumstances and environment he was running in) win. It was not a harbinger of some overall shift of the state becoming more competitive at the federal level. It’s still a D-trending state — not/no longer as rapidly as GA, but there are no encouraging signs whatsoever in any of NoVA/Richmond metro/Hampton Roads for the GOP.

This entire "Republicans swept all VA row offices in 2021" hype is basically this cycle's equivalent of "Democrats swept three out of four districts in Iowa in 2018, and yet you’re acting like it’s a red state!"