Quebec election, 2007

[Verily]

Rumors are abounding that Premier Jean Charest is to announce an upcoming election today. In any case, it is almost certain that an election will happen in March or April, so I thought I'd open this thread.

The PLQ (Parti Liberal du Quebec), a federalist party that otherwise has deep ideological divides, is the governing party, and holds a majority of seats. The PQ (Parti Quebecois), a sovereigntist party that is mostly left-leaning, is the primary opposition and is doing well in the polls. The ADQ (Action Democratique du Quebec) is trailing in third place in most polls, generally down from their result in 2003. They are weakly sovereigntist (less so than the PQ) and decidely right-wing. The ADQ is also mostly a personality cult around leader Mario Dumont.

While the PLQ and PQ have been trading places in the polls recently, this is to the advantage of the PQ, who benefit more from riding boundaries and would win an easy majority in the case of an evenly split electorate.

Another untested factor is a new party, QS (Quebec Solidaire), a hardcore sovereigntist party with stronger left leanings than the PQ, that has been picking up 5-10% in most polls. The PVQ (Parti Vert du Quebec), also sovereigntist, has also done well in the few polls in which it has been included (8% in one and 9% in two), but, unlike QS, it is unlikely to win any seats because its support is not concentrated.

A PQ majority or a PQ-QS coalition/understanding would probably immediately call another independence referendum.

[Hatman 🍁]

Since when is the Green Party sovereigntist

Btw, QS will not win any seats so nevermind any coalitions.

[Verily]

The PVQ is not associated with the Green Party, no more than QS is associated with the NDP.

And I could see QS winning a seat or two, though it's not hugely likely.

[Hatman 🍁]

The PVQ is not associated with the Green Party, no more than QS is associated with the NDP.

And I could see QS winning a seat or two, though it's not hugely likely.

I know that QS is not associated with the NDP, but I know for a fact that PVQ is not sovereigntist. Do you have any proof that they are?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Calling an election now is a good move by Charest; he's not going to get a better opportunity to get himself re-elected (as Premier anyway. He'll probably end up losing his seat, as is Traditional for Quebec Liberal leaders).

Some polls have been done recently...

CROP/La Presse: PLQ 37%, PQ 34%, ADQ 14%
Léger/Le Devoir: PLQ 34%, PQ 32%, ADQ 24%

It had been two years since the PLQ had had a lead in any published poll.

[Hatman 🍁]

One note about polling in Quebec. The PQ always fail to get what polls give them, but that's cancelled out by the fact that they don't need as many votes to win the election.

This will definitely be a close one I think!

[Verily]

The PVQ is not associated with the Green Party, no more than QS is associated with the NDP.

And I could see QS winning a seat or two, though it's not hugely likely.

I know that QS is not associated with the NDP, but I know for a fact that PVQ is not sovereigntist. Do you have any proof that they are?

Hmmm... I just did further research, and apparently I was looking at the old PVQ. There was apparently one in the early 90s and another now, and the old one was sovereigntist. I'm not sure whether the current one is sovereigntist or not.

[© tweed]

Gilles Duceppe is a Marxist?  I didn't know that till yesterday.

[Hatman 🍁]

The PVQ is not associated with the Green Party, no more than QS is associated with the NDP.

And I could see QS winning a seat or two, though it's not hugely likely.

I know that QS is not associated with the NDP, but I know for a fact that PVQ is not sovereigntist. Do you have any proof that they are?

Hmmm... I just did further research, and apparently I was looking at the old PVQ. There was apparently one in the early 90s and another now, and the old one was sovereigntist. I'm not sure whether the current one is sovereigntist or not.

Correct, they WERE sovereigntist. The new party has not made any policy decisions on the matter.

Gilles Duceppe is a Marxist?  I didn't know that till yesterday.

He was a Marxist, yes.

[cp]

QS may have spirit, but they have nowhere near the organizational power or electoral support to deliver even a single seat. Their constituency is too spread out and more unreliable than the other parties.

I think this campaign will be close, but not the election. There's going to be a lot of jabbering forth and back for the initial 4/5 of the campaign period, then in the last week or so one party will pull ahead. As it stands now, my guess is that the Liberals will manage to do it, winning a smaller majority.

[Hash]

Election date set for March 26, 2007. Charest called elections yesterday.

[Hatman 🍁]

This will avoid a conflict with a possible spring federal election.

[Verily]

I think the point was to get a PLQ victory in order to destroy any BQ momentum federally and also maybe to discourage the BQ from pushing a spring election.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think the point was to get a PLQ victory in order to destroy any BQ momentum federally and also maybe to discourage the BQ from pushing a spring election.

That's a possibility. At this point, I think the Liberals will win, but it's too early to tell.

[Hatman 🍁]

Races to watch:

Cremazie, Groulx, La Prairie, Saint-Jean, Chambly, Marguerite-D'Youville, Trois-Rivieres, Maskinonge, Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue, Roberval, Matane, Montmagny-L'Islet, Beauce-Sud, Sherbrooke, Iberville, Arthabaska, Jean-Talon, La Peltrie, Portneuf, Chauveau, Montmorency, Levis

[Hash]

Sherbrooke? Is there something big against Charest in his county?

[Hatman 🍁]

Sherbrooke? Is there something big against Charest in his county?

Well, if the PQ does well, they can get it. Charest won it by less than 3,000 votes last time. Plus, we all know Liberal leaders do poorly in their home riding. Bourassa 1985 anyone? (Liberals won 99 of 122 seats in 1985 and their leader, Robert Bourassa wasn't one of them! [he lost narrowly])

[Hash]

Yeah, that would be interesting- PLQ victory without Charest? Who leads?

[merseysider]

Yeah, that would be interesting- PLQ victory without Charest? Who leads?

I imagine the Liberals would engineer a by-election in a safe Liberal riding in Montreal by encouraging an obscure backbencher to step aside. Charest could then get back into the National Assembly and be Premier again.

[Hash]

From polls I saw, only 14% think Boisclair is leading the best campaign- behind Dumont and Charest. And the ADQ is only 4 points behind the PQ in polls- and some say if Boisclair and the PQ continue in this fashion, the ADQ might as well be the official opposition. Imagine that.

[minionofmidas]

Imagine that.

Thanks, I think I'd rather not.

[Verily]

In 2003, speculation was rife that the ADQ might form the next government. They even polled as high as 42% at one point. *Yawn*

[Hatman 🍁]

In 2003, speculation was rife that the ADQ might form the next government. They even polled as high as 42% at one point. *Yawn*

Yeah, they won some by-elections around then. The ADQ could win government some day though, I fear. I don't think this happens now though. They *may* gain a few seats.

[Hash]

Only if Boisclair continues his awful campaign.

[cp]

The ADQ is likely to pick up some seats in the townships and the Gaspesie, maybe in Quebec City too, all of them at the expense of the Liberals. The PQ will pick up around the Montreal suburbs, but not enough to win. I expect it'll be a slim Liberal majority, unless things go bad all of a sudden for Charest.