ME-Senate 2024: Return of the King?

[Spectator]

LOL at calling Golden a DINO. He voted to impeach Trump twice despite representing the reddest seat in the House for Dems (before Peltola came along), and voted for the IRA. He’s idiosyncratic and knows how to take strategic votes against his party when it doesn’t matter. Very much like Susan Collins in that regard.

In any event, Troy Jackson would be a solid choice in 2024 or 2026. I think only Golden or Jackson would stand any chance at all of beating Collins in 2024. No one from ME-01 can win against her.

[Spectator]

What makes people think Troy Jackson is a particularly strong candidate?

For starters, he holds a Trump +11 state senate seat that it looks like Jared Golden even lost this year.

[Spectator]

What makes people think Troy Jackson is a particularly strong candidate?

1. Just won a LePage+12 seat by 5 in an age with historically low ticket splitting against a pretty credible opponent 2. From ME-02; preventing Collins-style domination of that area is key for consistent D victories on the state level

EDIT: Also, re: Golden, I learned recently that he ruled out running for Senate at least in 2024; I think he may take a break from politics then to focus on his family. He may mount a comeback bid when Collins decides to retire

He did win the highly coveted 3rd term which is significant for retirement benefits from Congress, so that is something to watch. But he is also married to a Democrat politician too, so they may also be true believers in that Golden is needed to stay in the House as one of the only Dems that can win that seat.

[Spectator]

Using the numbers posted on Bangor Daily News, it turns out that Golden did in fact lose Troy Jackson’s state senate district. Jackson was seriously challenged by a sitting Republican State Representative so his win makes it all the more impressive, especially outperforming even Golden by what looks like 8%, pre-RCV.

8,433  49.4%   Poliquin
7,736  45.3%   Golden
901     5.3%     Bond

[Spectator]

Using the numbers posted on Bangor Daily News, it turns out that Golden did in fact lose Troy Jackson’s state senate district. Jackson was seriously challenged by a sitting Republican State Representative so his win makes it all the more impressive, especially outperforming even Golden by what looks like 8%, pre-RCV.

8,433  49.4%   Poliquin
7,736  45.3%   Golden
901     5.3%     Bond

Well Jackson did outperform him. It will by significantly less than 8 points as Bond voters are much more likely to have ranked Golden 2nd. It will probably be a 2-3% overperformance in the end. (Bond voters put Golden over the line in 2018)

Bond voters ended up shifting the race about 2 points left after RCV in 2018. It won’t allow Golden to make up the difference in SD-1, especially since there’s even less Bond voters than in 2018. But it doesn’t matter since he’ll still easily win ME-02 overall.

[Spectator]

Using the numbers posted on Bangor Daily News, it turns out that Golden did in fact lose Troy Jackson’s state senate district. Jackson was seriously challenged by a sitting Republican State Representative so his win makes it all the more impressive, especially outperforming even Golden by what looks like 8%, pre-RCV.

8,433  49.4%   Poliquin
7,736  45.3%   Golden
901     5.3%     Bond

With RCV, this is probably a Golden victory.

Doubt it. Even 22% exhaust of Bond voters would give Poliquin a win here, even assuming Golden won every other Bond vote.

[Spectator]

All but confirms his closest advisors are setting him up for a Senate run, either in 2024 or 2026.

[Spectator]

Golden may actually be the one person who could take down Collins.

I think most people on this board agree. It’s only a question whether he would want to run against his old boss or not. He could frame it compellingly as “she changed since I worked for her,” and he’s a skilled enough politician to probably sell that.

[Spectator]

So much for Senator Golden. If he wants to challenge Susan Collins in 2026, he’ll need to win reelection in 2024 first, which will be far more difficult than this year if Republicans win the presidency in 2024 (I don’t think Golden would give up his House seat to run against her in a midterm under a Democratic President).

Very big if, needless to say. 2022 was more headwinds for him than 2020 was, and he got the same winning margin.

[Spectator]

Meh we could use new blood but I’d rather save Golden for later.

Golden would be an interesting Senator. He's quite moderate and has voted against Dems on key things in the House. Would he do the same in the Senate representing a state that is blue leaning? At least he seems to have a clearer value set than Manchin and Sinema.

He seems idiosyncratic on things like guns and crime and pretty liberal on everything else. He’s made a few tactical votes against the COVID stimulus and BBB, but he voted for the IRA, so I don’t know if those economic votes are genuine or not. My guess is no and that he did it because Democrats already had the votes.

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/TheMaineWire/status/1673742200520179717
https://twitter.com/JohnnyWGME/status/1673719415882362881

Oh come on doesn’t the man have grandchildren? He should just retire and enjoy his final years

While it doesn’t particularly bother me that King is running again (he’s basically just an Independent in name only, he’s essentially a party line Democrat), I do think it’s very odd that politicians regularly run for office well into their 70s and 80s. I imagine when I’m that old, I won’t want to be working.

I wouldn’t call being a Senator or House member that hard of work. Especially when you’re safe.