A Discussion of how redistricting will impact 2024 House elections

[Tekken_Guy]

I imagine most of the NY seats are one-term rentals and will cancel out the NC/OH redraws.

[Mr.Phips]

I imagine most of the NY seats are one-term rentals and will cancel out the NC/OH redraws.

I would think Dems will redraw NY if OH and NC are done unfavorably.  The deciding judge who threw out the Dem maps was forced to resign and will almost certainly be replaced by a reliable liberal.

[kwabbit]

I imagine most of the NY seats are one-term rentals and will cancel out the NC/OH redraws.

I would think Dems will redraw NY if OH and NC are done unfavorably.  The deciding judge who threw out the Dem maps was forced to resign and will almost certainly be replaced by a reliable liberal.

Didn't they lose the supermajority in the State Senate? I thought that they needed that to pass maps. Even if they passed new maps, the courts seemingly don't want the legislature to pass a gerrymander so I don't see how it gets through a challenge.

[Tekken_Guy]

I imagine most of the NY seats are one-term rentals and will cancel out the NC/OH redraws.

I would think Dems will redraw NY if OH and NC are done unfavorably.  The deciding judge who threw out the Dem maps was forced to resign and will almost certainly be replaced by a reliable liberal.

Didn't they lose the supermajority in the State Senate? I thought that they needed that to pass maps. Even if they passed new maps, the courts seemingly don't want the legislature to pass a gerrymander so I don't see how it gets through a challenge.

DiFiore retired and is being replaced by a much more left wing Justice.

[kwabbit]

I imagine most of the NY seats are one-term rentals and will cancel out the NC/OH redraws.

I would think Dems will redraw NY if OH and NC are done unfavorably.  The deciding judge who threw out the Dem maps was forced to resign and will almost certainly be replaced by a reliable liberal.

Didn't they lose the supermajority in the State Senate? I thought that they needed that to pass maps. Even if they passed new maps, the courts seemingly don't want the legislature to pass a gerrymander so I don't see how it gets through a challenge.

DiFiore retired and is being replaced by a much more left wing Justice.

Do you know if they need 2/3 in the State Senate still or if that only applied to bypassing the commission in the initial process?

[Tekken_Guy]

I imagine most of the NY seats are one-term rentals and will cancel out the NC/OH redraws.

I would think Dems will redraw NY if OH and NC are done unfavorably.  The deciding judge who threw out the Dem maps was forced to resign and will almost certainly be replaced by a reliable liberal.

Didn't they lose the supermajority in the State Senate? I thought that they needed that to pass maps. Even if they passed new maps, the courts seemingly don't want the legislature to pass a gerrymander so I don't see how it gets through a challenge.

DiFiore retired and is being replaced by a much more left wing Justice.

Do you know if they need 2/3 in the State Senate still or if that only applied to bypassing the commission in the initial process?

Not sure.

[David Hume]

I imagine most of the NY seats are one-term rentals and will cancel out the NC/OH redraws.

I would think Dems will redraw NY if OH and NC are done unfavorably.  The deciding judge who threw out the Dem maps was forced to resign and will almost certainly be replaced by a reliable liberal.

Not true. It was a 5-2 decision to strike down Hochelmander. The 4-3 is about remedy.

[Mr.Phips]

I imagine most of the NY seats are one-term rentals and will cancel out the NC/OH redraws.

I would think Dems will redraw NY if OH and NC are done unfavorably.  The deciding judge who threw out the Dem maps was forced to resign and will almost certainly be replaced by a reliable liberal.

Didn't they lose the supermajority in the State Senate? I thought that they needed that to pass maps. Even if they passed new maps, the courts seemingly don't want the legislature to pass a gerrymander so I don't see how it gets through a challenge.

The senate supermajority is dependent absentee ballots in a north Syracuse district where the Dem is behind 396 votes.

[Spectator]

I imagine most of the NY seats are one-term rentals and will cancel out the NC/OH redraws.

I would think Dems will redraw NY if OH and NC are done unfavorably.  The deciding judge who threw out the Dem maps was forced to resign and will almost certainly be replaced by a reliable liberal.

Didn't they lose the supermajority in the State Senate? I thought that they needed that to pass maps. Even if they passed new maps, the courts seemingly don't want the legislature to pass a gerrymander so I don't see how it gets through a challenge.

The senate supermajority is dependent absentee ballots in a north Syracuse district where the Dem is behind 396 votes.

And buying Sincha Felder’s loyalty. In any event, I think Mannion is easily favored to win the Syracuse seat based on NY absentees heavily favoring Dems. He did better than Conole did in those parts of NY-22.

[Mr.Phips]

I imagine most of the NY seats are one-term rentals and will cancel out the NC/OH redraws.

I would think Dems will redraw NY if OH and NC are done unfavorably.  The deciding judge who threw out the Dem maps was forced to resign and will almost certainly be replaced by a reliable liberal.

Didn't they lose the supermajority in the State Senate? I thought that they needed that to pass maps. Even if they passed new maps, the courts seemingly don't want the legislature to pass a gerrymander so I don't see how it gets through a challenge.

The senate supermajority is dependent absentee ballots in a north Syracuse district where the Dem is behind 396 votes.

And buying Sincha Felder’s loyalty. In any event, I think Mannion is easily favored to win the Syracuse seat based on NY absentees heavily favoring Dems. He did better than Conole did in those parts of NY-22.

They’ll give Felder whatever he wants.

[Devils30]

I would say Dems are slightly favored in 2024 and if a Dem wins the Presidency, they will likely have a Dem House.

NC: Rs will gain 3 to 4. I wonder if they might just go 10-4 instead of 11-3, the trends in Johnston County were not terribly great (Budd only matched Trump) and that 4th district they originally proposed could backfire in an R midterm.

OH: I expect a Cincy pack, 12-3 or 11-3-1.

NY: Dems need to try to get their 22-4 map back, this would erase everything the GOP does in other states.

MN: I would be very aggressive here. This is a lean blue state that should be treated like one. Go 6-2, make MN-1 a south twin cities to Rochester Dem seat and the 8th a Duluth to St. Paul snake.

WI: If Dems win the Supreme Court, the state legislative maps and abortion bans are out. I would also go for a 4-4 map with western Dane in WI-3 and part of Milwaukee in the 1st.

There are also so many more opportunities for team blue. Fitzpatrick or Bacon not running would lead to flips, CA-27, 41, 45 in a presidential with better candidates can flip. NJ-7 also might be a problem if Trump is on the ballot, Kean will have to be the person he's been as a State Senator, not in primaries. Not to mention OR-5, AZ-1,6 (assuming 2022 GOP wins).

[Mr.Phips]

I would say Dems are slightly favored in 2024 and if a Dem wins the Presidency, they will likely have a Dem House.

NC: Rs will gain 3 to 4. I wonder if they might just go 10-4 instead of 11-3, the trends in Johnston County were not terribly great (Budd only matched Trump) and that 4th district they originally proposed could backfire in an R midterm.

OH: I expect a Cincy pack, 12-3 or 11-3-1.

NY: Dems need to try to get their 22-4 map back, this would erase everything the GOP does in other states.

MN: I would be very aggressive here. This is a lean blue state that should be treated like one. Go 6-2, make MN-1 a south twin cities to Rochester Dem seat and the 8th a Duluth to St. Paul snake.

WI: If Dems win the Supreme Court, the state legislative maps and abortion bans are out. I would also go for a 4-4 map with western Dane in WI-3 and part of Milwaukee in the 1st.

There are also so many more opportunities for team blue. Fitzpatrick or Bacon not running would lead to flips, CA-27, 41, 45 in a presidential with better candidates can flip. NJ-7 also might be a problem if Trump is on the ballot, Kean will have to be the person he's been as a State Senator, not in primaries. Not to mention OR-5, AZ-1,6 (assuming 2022 GOP wins).

The Dems really can’t argue against the WI House map.  It’s pretty evenhanded but geography is just awful for Dems in the state.  You’d need a hideous gerrymander to get a 4-4 Dem map.

I doubt MN Dems do a redraw there.

If Republicans try for something worse than 9-5 in NC and 11-4 in OH, Dems absolutely need to reopen NY.  They won’t have a choice.

[Devils30]

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::e27df93b-38b9-4dfd-b1fa-217a2530a01e

They would be stupid not to go for this.