PA-SEN 2024 megathread

[Schiff for Senate]

No idea how McCormick is a weak candidate, but he probably isn’t strong enough to beat Casey. The GOP can do a lot worse here (imagine running Scott Perry lol), but this is Lean D until evidence arises otherwise, Casey has a history of outrunning the top of the ticket.

His extremism aside, Perry actually has a knack of over performing in his only light-red Harrisburg area district.

[Schiff for Senate]

NRSC/GOP groups seem downright obsessed with this race from a quick look at their Twitter. I get that defining Casey early is important, but I can’t believe they’re prioritizing this over NV and have released more ads on Casey than Tester/Brown.

Yeah, I don't exactly understand it. Maybe it's a recency bias thing; they held an R Senate seat in PA as recently as 2022 whereas in NV or MI they haven't in quite a while.

Another factor could be they believe McCormick would be able to finance a large part of this race on his won so they see it as a better investment.

Finally, they could just have internal data that convincingly suggests PA is a better R pickup opportunity, and that could be due to Rs being poised to make gains in PA and/or Dems are just in a good position in NV.

This applies to Sheehy in MT as well. And ofc he has a much higher chance of victory in the GE going in than McCormick does.

[Schiff for Senate]

Casey will win by more than Fetterman,Beaver and Berks are going to be Trump-Casey Counties.
And if Biden flips cumberland casey carries it too
McCormick doesn't have a path,he's doesn't have a WWC appeal and the suburbs aren't coming back.

Beaver isn't staying Dem. After all even Oz won it by 8 points last year. Unless Casey wins by double digits (he won't), Beaver is flipping from its 2018 result.