PA-SEN 2024 megathread

[GALeftist]

Fitzpatrick can absolutely win a primary. He's far more likely than someone like Steil in WI

Are you kidding? Some Guy got 34% of the vote in his primary this year and he had raised $17,000 to Fitzpatrick's millions. Similar performances in 2020 and 2018 too. This is an area he'd need Kim Jong-un-esque margins in for a prayer statewide. He'd get blown out in a humiliating fashion.

[GALeftist]

McCormick would probably be slightly stronger than Oz (he's from Western PA if nothing else), but not by much, and I suspect Casey is slightly stronger than Fetterman such that it essentially balances out. If I were the PAGOP I'd probably be thinking Reschenthaler > DeFoor > some other random House member > McCormick (excluding memes like Fitzpatrick who are DOA in a statewide primary). The thing is though that I think a lot of the credible candidates are gonna see a tough race likely deprioritized by the national GOP given the volume of more appealing flips and not bite.

I'll be bold and put this at likely D. While there is obviously a conceivable way for Rs to win this seat, I just don't see it next cycle.

[GALeftist]

McCormick would probably be slightly stronger than Oz (he's from Western PA if nothing else), but not by much, and I suspect Casey is slightly stronger than Fetterman such that it essentially balances out. If I were the PAGOP I'd probably be thinking Reschenthaler > DeFoor > some other random House member > McCormick (excluding memes like Fitzpatrick who are DOA in a statewide primary). The thing is though that I think a lot of the credible candidates are gonna see a tough race likely deprioritized by the national GOP given the volume of more appealing flips and not bite.

I'll be bold and put this at likely D. While there is obviously a conceivable way for Rs to win this seat, I just don't see it next cycle.

Reschenthaler doesn't work. None of the house GOP candidates work. They're all far right, barring Fitzpatrick. And yet Fitz would likely lose a primary. So they're in a crappy spot, essentially.

Yeah I mean end of the day no one except Toomey or Fitzpatrick would be remotely favored and both are DOA in primaries.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1634718066289287174

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