PA-SEN 2024 megathread

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think one factor at play here is this is probably the GOP's like 8th best flip opportunity, so I suspect they'll heavily invest in a lot of other races over PA.

If the map was less lopsided towards the GOP, I think this seat would be in much more danger for Dems.

(To be clear, I don't think Dems should take it for granted, but I agree with the consensus that something would have to go notably wrong for them to lose this seat in 2024).

[MT Treasurer]

I actually think Casey - while a formidable opponent overall - is one the more overrated incumbent Democrats for 2024, and I don’t really buy that he’s unbeatable/that this race is Safe D like some posters have suggested (unless 2024 is a very favorable year for Democrats, in which case any Democrat would win here). While this is certainly among the last realistic pick-up opportunities for the GOP in 2024 that basically necessitates a GOP win at the presidential level (PA is probably a good bet for the 2024 tipping-point state), I don’t really view Casey's brand as unassailable. It will mostly come down to whether the GOP challenger has the resources and discipline to hammer away at the message that Casey has evolved into a reliably party-line liberal in the Senate and that he’s no longer the "old" Bob Casey (or not like "the old Bob Casey"). This can be a very potent message if executed competently (see: Bullock, Steve; Warner, Mark) and also makes voters feel less guilty about their previous support for Casey by placing blame on the incumbent.

I also think the notion that McCormick would be just as unpalatable to the electorate as Oz is ludicrous. Win or lose (this probably starts out at Lean D in a neutral year), it would be foolish for Republicans not to try here in a competitive national environment.

[GALeftist]

McCormick would probably be slightly stronger than Oz (he's from Western PA if nothing else), but not by much, and I suspect Casey is slightly stronger than Fetterman such that it essentially balances out. If I were the PAGOP I'd probably be thinking Reschenthaler > DeFoor > some other random House member > McCormick (excluding memes like Fitzpatrick who are DOA in a statewide primary). The thing is though that I think a lot of the credible candidates are gonna see a tough race likely deprioritized by the national GOP given the volume of more appealing flips and not bite.

I'll be bold and put this at likely D. While there is obviously a conceivable way for Rs to win this seat, I just don't see it next cycle.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I actually think Casey - while a formidable opponent overall - is one the more overrated incumbent Democrats for 2024, and I don’t really buy that he’s unbeatable/that this race is Safe D like some posters have suggested (unless 2024 is a very favorable year for Democrats, in which case any Democrat would win here). While this is certainly among the last realistic pick-up opportunities for the GOP in 2024 that basically necessitates a GOP win at the presidential level (PA is probably a good bet for the 2024 tipping-point state), I don’t really view Casey's brand as unassailable. It will mostly come down to whether the GOP challenger has the resources and discipline to hammer away at the message that Casey has evolved into a reliably party-line liberal in the Senate and that he’s no longer the "old" Bob Casey (or not like "the old Bob Casey"). This can be a very potent message if executed competently (see: Bullock, Steve; Warner, Mark) and also makes voters feel less guilty about their previous support for Casey by placing blame on the incumbent.

I also think the notion that McCormick would be just as unpalatable to the electorate as Oz is ludicrous. Win or lose (this probably starts out at Lean D in a neutral year), it would be foolish for Republicans not to try here in a competitive national environment.

I mean, cockroaches are more appealing to the electorate than Mehmet Oz. McCormick being better than that is not saying much. Bottom line is, he has no chance of actually beating Casey. The strategy you describe could work but he is not the type of candidate that could do that

[Suburbia]

Why not Sean Parnell or William McSwain?

If this is true that McCormick is a carpetbagger like Oz, then go for someone like McSwain or Parnell...

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Why not Sean Parnell or William McSwain?

If this is true that McCormick is a carpetbagger like Oz, then go for someone like McSwain or Parnell...

Yeah why the heck wouldn't Sean Parnell run for Senate, what could possibly go wrong

[Suburbia]

Why not Sean Parnell or William McSwain?

If this is true that McCormick is a carpetbagger like Oz, then go for someone like McSwain or Parnell...

Yeah why the heck wouldn't Sean Parnell run for Senate, what could possibly go wrong

If not him, what about McSwain?

[wbrocks67]

I actually think Casey - while a formidable opponent overall - is one the more overrated incumbent Democrats for 2024, and I don’t really buy that he’s unbeatable/that this race is Safe D like some posters have suggested (unless 2024 is a very favorable year for Democrats, in which case any Democrat would win here). While this is certainly among the last realistic pick-up opportunities for the GOP in 2024 that basically necessitates a GOP win at the presidential level (PA is probably a good bet for the 2024 tipping-point state), I don’t really view Casey's brand as unassailable. It will mostly come down to whether the GOP challenger has the resources and discipline to hammer away at the message that Casey has evolved into a reliably party-line liberal in the Senate and that he’s no longer the "old" Bob Casey (or not like "the old Bob Casey"). This can be a very potent message if executed competently (see: Bullock, Steve; Warner, Mark) and also makes voters feel less guilty about their previous support for Casey by placing blame on the incumbent.

I also think the notion that McCormick would be just as unpalatable to the electorate as Oz is ludicrous. Win or lose (this probably starts out at Lean D in a neutral year), it would be foolish for Republicans not to try here in a competitive national environment.

Sorry, I'm gonna pull the whole "you just don't get it because you don't live here." You really see what we just went through with PA-SEN this year and your conclusion is that Casey is overrated? Sis, really?

[wbrocks67]

McCormick would probably be slightly stronger than Oz (he's from Western PA if nothing else), but not by much, and I suspect Casey is slightly stronger than Fetterman such that it essentially balances out. If I were the PAGOP I'd probably be thinking Reschenthaler > DeFoor > some other random House member > McCormick (excluding memes like Fitzpatrick who are DOA in a statewide primary). The thing is though that I think a lot of the credible candidates are gonna see a tough race likely deprioritized by the national GOP given the volume of more appealing flips and not bite.

I'll be bold and put this at likely D. While there is obviously a conceivable way for Rs to win this seat, I just don't see it next cycle.

Reschenthaler doesn't work. None of the house GOP candidates work. They're all far right, barring Fitzpatrick. And yet Fitz would likely lose a primary. So they're in a crappy spot, essentially.

[GALeftist]

McCormick would probably be slightly stronger than Oz (he's from Western PA if nothing else), but not by much, and I suspect Casey is slightly stronger than Fetterman such that it essentially balances out. If I were the PAGOP I'd probably be thinking Reschenthaler > DeFoor > some other random House member > McCormick (excluding memes like Fitzpatrick who are DOA in a statewide primary). The thing is though that I think a lot of the credible candidates are gonna see a tough race likely deprioritized by the national GOP given the volume of more appealing flips and not bite.

I'll be bold and put this at likely D. While there is obviously a conceivable way for Rs to win this seat, I just don't see it next cycle.

Reschenthaler doesn't work. None of the house GOP candidates work. They're all far right, barring Fitzpatrick. And yet Fitz would likely lose a primary. So they're in a crappy spot, essentially.

Yeah I mean end of the day no one except Toomey or Fitzpatrick would be remotely favored and both are DOA in primaries.

[wbrocks67]

McCormick would probably be slightly stronger than Oz (he's from Western PA if nothing else), but not by much, and I suspect Casey is slightly stronger than Fetterman such that it essentially balances out. If I were the PAGOP I'd probably be thinking Reschenthaler > DeFoor > some other random House member > McCormick (excluding memes like Fitzpatrick who are DOA in a statewide primary). The thing is though that I think a lot of the credible candidates are gonna see a tough race likely deprioritized by the national GOP given the volume of more appealing flips and not bite.

I'll be bold and put this at likely D. While there is obviously a conceivable way for Rs to win this seat, I just don't see it next cycle.

Reschenthaler doesn't work. None of the house GOP candidates work. They're all far right, barring Fitzpatrick. And yet Fitz would likely lose a primary. So they're in a crappy spot, essentially.

Yeah I mean end of the day no one except Toomey or Fitzpatrick would be remotely favored and both are DOA in primaries.

Toomey wouldn't have been favored this year. He wouldn't have been as DOA as Oz, but what people don't seem to understand is that Toomey is intensely disliked in PA and has been for years now. He's also lost any of that 2016 crossover vote he had. The suburbs would not have given him anywhere close to the margins they gave him back then now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MT Treasure love to think Ds are toast in PA and this is the bellwether the only thing is McCormick ran in the wrong yr if he ran against Fetterman than Casey he could have won with Fetterman stroke but Females voted in the R primary for Dr Oz obviously

With Biden back on the ballot in 24 the blue wall is secured, I can see NC switching places with GA as a Bellwether there is no Senate race in GA but a Gov race in NC and Stein is the fav this Early

Look at the compiled map NV and PA Going R and there are more Ds on this site, Ha

It's a 303 map regardless because Fetterman won by the same margins as Obama 51/47 and in 2012 Brown, Tester and Manchin won and there is gonna be a Border wall, WV pipeline and extended tax cuts for 2 more yrs in the Debt Ceiling I have a sneaky suspicion that John Love is gonna beat Cruz because once Biden signs that Border wall it eliminated that as an issue and Obama and Biden built 128 m while Trp built 40 m

[South Dakota Democrat]

McCormick would probably be slightly stronger than Oz (he's from Western PA if nothing else), but not by much, and I suspect Casey is slightly stronger than Fetterman such that it essentially balances out. If I were the PAGOP I'd probably be thinking Reschenthaler > DeFoor > some other random House member > McCormick (excluding memes like Fitzpatrick who are DOA in a statewide primary). The thing is though that I think a lot of the credible candidates are gonna see a tough race likely deprioritized by the national GOP given the volume of more appealing flips and not bite.

I'll be bold and put this at likely D. While there is obviously a conceivable way for Rs to win this seat, I just don't see it next cycle.

Reschenthaler doesn't work. None of the house GOP candidates work. They're all far right, barring Fitzpatrick. And yet Fitz would likely lose a primary. So they're in a crappy spot, essentially.

Yeah I mean end of the day no one except Toomey or Fitzpatrick would be remotely favored and both are DOA in primaries.

Toomey wouldn't have been favored this year. He wouldn't have been as DOA as Oz, but what people don't seem to understand is that Toomey is intensely disliked in PA and has been for years now. He's also lost any of that 2016 crossover vote he had. The suburbs would not have given him anywhere close to the margins they gave him back then now.

If it had been Toomey vs. Fetterman, what percentage do you think each would have gotten? (I know you don't know, we can never know, just your best guess).

[wbrocks67]

McCormick would probably be slightly stronger than Oz (he's from Western PA if nothing else), but not by much, and I suspect Casey is slightly stronger than Fetterman such that it essentially balances out. If I were the PAGOP I'd probably be thinking Reschenthaler > DeFoor > some other random House member > McCormick (excluding memes like Fitzpatrick who are DOA in a statewide primary). The thing is though that I think a lot of the credible candidates are gonna see a tough race likely deprioritized by the national GOP given the volume of more appealing flips and not bite.

I'll be bold and put this at likely D. While there is obviously a conceivable way for Rs to win this seat, I just don't see it next cycle.

Reschenthaler doesn't work. None of the house GOP candidates work. They're all far right, barring Fitzpatrick. And yet Fitz would likely lose a primary. So they're in a crappy spot, essentially.

Yeah I mean end of the day no one except Toomey or Fitzpatrick would be remotely favored and both are DOA in primaries.

Toomey wouldn't have been favored this year. He wouldn't have been as DOA as Oz, but what people don't seem to understand is that Toomey is intensely disliked in PA and has been for years now. He's also lost any of that 2016 crossover vote he had. The suburbs would not have given him anywhere close to the margins they gave him back then now.

If it had been Toomey vs. Fetterman, what percentage do you think each would have gotten? (I know you don't know, we can never know, just your best guess).

Maybe Fetterman by 2 or 3? I don't think Fett would've won by the margins he did with Oz, and incumbency would've helped Toomey a bit, but Oz was always hurt by his terrible favorables. If you take a look at any poll from the last 2-3 years that has Toomey favs, his are god awful too, with a insignificant portion of Reps also disliking him. I don't think he would've been able to survive given the Dem margins in the suburbs these days (and out of Allegheny)

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JanMurphy/status/1611028355117383680

[Zedonathin2020]

https://twitter.com/JanMurphy/status/1611028355117383680

While this is saddening, it doesn’t mean he’ll retire.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/JanMurphy/status/1611028355117383680

Fortunately, prostate cancer has a high survivability rate beyond ten years (around 80%), largely thanks to advances in detection and awareness about getting prostate exams.  

Biologically-male posters fifty or over: make sure you're getting those prostates checked!

(And b/m posters under 50, make sure you're keeping tabs on your fellas!  Testicular cancer is a similarly curable cancer in the under fifty male crowd, but early detection is the key!)

Wishing Mr. Casey all the best

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Now that Stabenow retired all the resources until we get a candidate is gonna be on MI Whitmer should run but she won't run unless she says so she wants to be Prez not Sen an executor

[free my dawg]

Surely Blue MAGA will clutch their pearls about how Casey should drop out and focus on his recovery.

Best wishes to the good Senator. I'm sure he'll be fine.

[2016]

Awful News!

Best wishes to Senator Casey

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Prostate cancer isn't colon cancer so it's  curable big difference

[free my dawg]

Lmfaooooooo McCormick

Even Lamb would wash his ass

[wbrocks67]

Lmfaooooooo McCormick

Even Lamb would wash his ass

Yeah, it's very funny to me that McCormick is still being held up as some good candidate.

Let's not forget too that Oz and Barnette covered the Trumpy vote, and that easily outweighed the 30% McCormick got. He would need another crowded primary to win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Casey hasn't had a tough race even in 2012 he won by 6 and all three races he won by landslides this will be much tougher for him than any other race Fetterman won by only 4 pts he Casey was clearly a 4/6 pt fav without Documents but we saw the poll Mastriano up by 5 but obviously that's not a Marist poll

Kaine too is gonna have a tougher race that's why Mark Warner is on Biden on the Documents Youngkin already won and D's lost VA 2 in 22

[Landslide Lyndon]

Could the Democrats be so lucky?

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/07/mastriano-weighing-senate-run-2024-00085747