PA-SEN 2024 megathread

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If this happens Casey might even be able to beat Mastriano by more than Shapiro did.

Unlikely, since federal races are more polarized but Casey would probably still win by double digits against Mastriano.

[President Johnson]

If this happens Casey might even be able to beat Mastriano by more than Shapiro did.

Unlikely, since federal races are more polarized but Casey would probably still win by double digits against Mastriano.

Agreed, though I could also see him "just" winning by high single digits. This would definitely be good news for Biden as well.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Good chance of being a split outcome in 2024; Casey wins but Biden loses.

[Tekken_Guy]

Good chance of being a split outcome in 2024; Casey wins but Biden loses.

I think Biden is favored in PA right now against both Trump and DeSantis. Having Mastriano on the ticket won’t help either man.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good chance of being a split outcome in 2024; Casey wins but Biden loses.

No because we won both races in 2022 in a Midterm

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Yall are just wishcasting if you think someone who lost by 14 points is going to be able to convince GOP voters that he can beat Bob Casey who while overrated imo, is clearly stronger than generic D. He's not winning the primary again.
 With that being said, Rs are going to have to find someone better than McCormick. He has no shot of actually winning this race

[Lambsbread]

Yall are just wishcasting if you think someone who lost by 14 points is going to be able to convince GOP voters that he can beat Bob Casey who while overrated imo, is clearly stronger than generic D. He's not winning the primary again.
 With that being said, Rs are going to have to find someone better than McCormick. He has no shot of actually winning this race

You are completely ignoring the fact that the PA GOP electorate is batsh*t insane. They knew who Mastriano was when he ran for Governor too. He won the primary because he's crazy, not in spite of it.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Yall are just wishcasting if you think someone who lost by 14 points is going to be able to convince GOP voters that he can beat Bob Casey who while overrated imo, is clearly stronger than generic D. He's not winning the primary again.
 With that being said, Rs are going to have to find someone better than McCormick. He has no shot of actually winning this race

You are completely ignoring the fact that the PA GOP electorate is batsh*t insane. They knew who Mastriano was when he ran for Governor too. He won the primary because he's crazy, not in spite of it.

But there was no definitive proof that he was a bad candidate. Now we know that he lost in a neutralish environment by more than twice as Donald Trump lost by. All McCormick has to say is "He's not Electable hurt durr"

[Progressive Pessimist]

LMAO

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/1635248507060908032

Holy cheese-steak! Please do it, Pennsylania GOP!

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Yall are just wishcasting if you think someone who lost by 14 points is going to be able to convince GOP voters that he can beat Bob Casey who while overrated imo, is clearly stronger than generic D. He's not winning the primary again.
 With that being said, Rs are going to have to find someone better than McCormick. He has no shot of actually winning this race

You are completely ignoring the fact that the PA GOP electorate is batsh*t insane. They knew who Mastriano was when he ran for Governor too. He won the primary because he's crazy, not in spite of it.

But there was no definitive proof that he was a bad candidate. Now we know that he lost in a neutralish environment by more than twice as Donald Trump lost by. All McCormick has to say is "He's not Electable hurt durr"

And the Republican electorate will reply by saying that a cabal of Satan-worshipping (((bankers))) is drinking the blood of White children who are being killed off so F@ck Joe "Aerys II" Brandon can ship in sixteen gorillion pregnant Mexican ISIS terrorists to indoctrinate kids into the cult of Guardian reading tofu eating wokerati who will perform gender transition surgeries on kids so when they groom them to be gay they can still have children to abort as an offering to the twin gods of Sam Smith and Barack Obama.

[Sir Mohamed]

Yall are just wishcasting if you think someone who lost by 14 points is going to be able to convince GOP voters that he can beat Bob Casey who while overrated imo, is clearly stronger than generic D. He's not winning the primary again.
 With that being said, Rs are going to have to find someone better than McCormick. He has no shot of actually winning this race

You are completely ignoring the fact that the PA GOP electorate is batsh*t insane. They knew who Mastriano was when he ran for Governor too. He won the primary because he's crazy, not in spite of it.

But there was no definitive proof that he was a bad candidate. Now we know that he lost in a neutralish environment by more than twice as Donald Trump lost by. All McCormick has to say is "He's not Electable hurt durr"

How many times have GOP primary voters demonstrate the fact they don't give a s--- when it comes "electability". They just don't care and want candidates that are insane. The PA GOP especially has gone off the rails. It's basically the Northeastern version of the AZ GOP, which might nominate the other crazy gov loser from 2022.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yea the compiled map had Fetterman losing with S019, MT Treasure and Old School thought Fetterman was gonna lose with Shapiro and MT Treasure still thinks RS can take PA and Wiz

LoL PA is safe D thru 30 since Shapiro will easily get reelected and so will Fetterman and Casey because Shapiro is up in 26, Fetterman is up in 28 and Casey is up in 2030 and by 25 hopefully we have DC Statehood  on strength of MO, OH, TX and we are leading in KY, MS Gov and tied in NC and LA is a Runoff Wilson all he has to do is not win outright but make runoff

[Pollster]

Yall are just wishcasting if you think someone who lost by 14 points is going to be able to convince GOP voters that he can beat Bob Casey who while overrated imo, is clearly stronger than generic D. He's not winning the primary again.
 With that being said, Rs are going to have to find someone better than McCormick. He has no shot of actually winning this race

It can be difficult to understand as a Democrat but Republican primary voters have drastically different motivations and priorities than Democratic primary voters (a phenomenon that has only been exacerbated since 2016, though of course still existed beforehand). This of course doesn't mean Mastriano will win this primary if he runs, but if he loses it won't be because McCormick or some other person runs aggressively on electability. As I've been saying for months - the GOP's candidate quality problems are a systemic issue that can't and won't be solved in a single election cycle.

[President Johnson]

Yall are just wishcasting if you think someone who lost by 14 points is going to be able to convince GOP voters that he can beat Bob Casey who while overrated imo, is clearly stronger than generic D. He's not winning the primary again.
 With that being said, Rs are going to have to find someone better than McCormick. He has no shot of actually winning this race

It can be difficult to understand as a Democrat but Republican primary voters have drastically different motivations and priorities than Democratic primary voters (a phenomenon that has only been exacerbated since 2016, though of course still existed beforehand). This of course doesn't mean Mastriano will win this primary if he runs, but if he loses it won't be because McCormick or some other person runs aggressively on electability. As I've been saying for months - the GOP's candidate quality problems are a systemic issue that can't and won't be solved in a single election cycle.

Exactly this. They want someone who's taking fight in the mud with "socialist Democrats" and "globalist elites" that "want to make America more like the rest of the world" (meaning Canada, Europe and New Zealand in particular). Wasn't a common saying in 2016 that Republican voters would much rather lose with Trump than win with Jeb?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yall are just wishcasting if you think someone who lost by 14 points is going to be able to convince GOP voters that he can beat Bob Casey who while overrated imo, is clearly stronger than generic D. He's not winning the primary again.
 With that being said, Rs are going to have to find someone better than McCormick. He has no shot of actually winning this race

You are completely ignoring the fact that the PA GOP electorate is batsh*t insane. They knew who Mastriano was when he ran for Governor too. He won the primary because he's crazy, not in spite of it.

But there was no definitive proof that he was a bad candidate. Now we know that he lost in a neutralish environment by more than twice as Donald Trump lost by. All McCormick has to say is "He's not Electable hurt durr"

How many times have GOP primary voters demonstrate the fact they don't give a s--- when it comes "electability". They just don't care and want candidates that are insane. The PA GOP especially has gone off the rails. It's basically the Northeastern version of the AZ GOP, which might nominate the other crazy gov loser from 2022.

I wouldn't put it past them to nominate Dixon, LePage, and Michels again too.

[Torie]

Yall are just wishcasting if you think someone who lost by 14 points is going to be able to convince GOP voters that he can beat Bob Casey who while overrated imo, is clearly stronger than generic D. He's not winning the primary again.
 With that being said, Rs are going to have to find someone better than McCormick. He has no shot of actually winning this race

You are completely ignoring the fact that the PA GOP electorate is batsh*t insane. They knew who Mastriano was when he ran for Governor too. He won the primary because he's crazy, not in spite of it.

But there was no definitive proof that he was a bad candidate. Now we know that he lost in a neutralish environment by more than twice as Donald Trump lost by. All McCormick has to say is "He's not Electable hurt durr"

How many times have GOP primary voters demonstrate the fact they don't give a s--- when it comes "electability". They just don't care and want candidates that are insane. The PA GOP especially has gone off the rails. It's basically the Northeastern version of the AZ GOP, which might nominate the other crazy gov loser from 2022.

Well, your post seems to assume that  the consensus opinion is that Mastriano lost the election. Actually he won the election, the war criminal Fauci conspired with the Chinese to unleash the Covid virus, and Fetterman is dead. That's what I read anyway as to what is in the world inhabited by folks at a Mastriano rally. It's time to expand one's horizons. Mastriano was and is and always will be a winner.

Any questions? I thought not.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/14/doug-mastriano-republicans-pennsylvania-maga-00086995

[wbrocks67]

If Mastriano chooses to run, he has the entire MAGA lane open to him.

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1636026700793348097

[Sir Mohamed]

If it's Mastrino vs. McCormick, I'm predicting a clean Mastriano primary win. But it would move the race from Lean D to Safe D.

[Lambsbread]

If Mastriano chooses to run, he has the entire MAGA lane open to him.

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1636026700793348097

Good. She scares me. She's still batsh*t insane but no doubt that a lot of Republicans would say "I can't be racist, I voted for the black lady"

[President Johnson]

If Mastriano chooses to run, he has the entire MAGA lane open to him.

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1636026700793348097

Good. She scares me. She's still batsh*t insane but no doubt that a lot of Republicans would say "I can't be racist, I voted for the black lady"

Was there are reason to be scared of her, if nominated? I think Casey would have easily beaten her, just has he will clobber Mastriano.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

PA and WI are Gone since Biden is at 49/45

[Lambsbread]

If Mastriano chooses to run, he has the entire MAGA lane open to him.

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1636026700793348097

Good. She scares me. She's still batsh*t insane but no doubt that a lot of Republicans would say "I can't be racist, I voted for the black lady"

Was there are reason to be scared of her, if nominated? I think Casey would have easily beaten her, just has he will clobber Mastriano.

I agree that Casey probably wins pretty handily no matter the GOP nominee, but with the possibility of energized Republican turnout in a Presidential year, all bets are off when it comes to people like Barnette. She's the biggest wild card. Mastriano is decidedly unappealing to a GE electorate in PA, but we have no real evidence for Barnette other than her Congressional race which was in a pretty blue district anyway.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If Mastriano chooses to run, he has the entire MAGA lane open to him.

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1636026700793348097

If they unite behind McCormick they are absolute buffoons. Bartos or DeFoor would be 10× better

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Mastriano chooses to run, he has the entire MAGA lane open to him.

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1636026700793348097

If they unite behind McCormick they are absolute buffoons. Bartos or DeFoor would be 10× better

PA is gone for RS anyways

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

If Mastriano chooses to run, he has the entire MAGA lane open to him.

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1636026700793348097

If they unite behind McCormick they are absolute buffoons. Bartos or DeFoor would be 10× better

McCormick literally has all of Oz's flaws, but dumbass GOP donors/operatives's only lesson from the midterms was "if anyone did poorly it was cause they weren't anti-Trump enough".
A carpetbagger out-of-touch hedge fund manager billionaire who outsources jobs to China, is socially liberal and economically aligns with Paul Ryan may be the perfect candidate for Mitch McConnell, but who does he appeal to?
Like seriously who actually likes this guy? He has no charisma and already has tens of millions of dollars of attack ads spent on him.
For goodness sake democrats will run that clip of Trump calling him a "pro-China globalist totally controlled by Mitch McConnell and Wall Street" at that really last year EVERY DAY. That will catastrophically destroy turnout for him, and you know Trump won't campaign for someone who said he deserved to be impeached.

David McCormick is just the Republican Kyrsten Sinema. It's that simple.