2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LoL Biden name is on the ballot in 24 unlike in 22 Beasley and Ryan didn't campaign with Obama or Biden and lost 3/6 pts MOE and Fetterman and Shapiro and Wes Moore campaign with Jill or Joe Biden and won, Evers won and campaign with Obama so that tells you right there you are wrong, Biden polls are still low there is no agreement on Debt Ceiling and Docugate but it won't he a Red wave if 22 was a Neutral Environment and Prez yrs it's higher D not R turnout it's 65 not 50% Turnout


But, Ds are still ahead on the GCB 46/45 like last time because RS aren't doing anything on inflation like they said they were gonna do instead they act like they have a 15 not 5 seat majority and going after Hunter laptop where is their budget on the Debt Ceiling

They have to raise taxes on millionaire that's why they haven't produces anything on inflation the Trump tax cut worked it stopped 9% unemployment we are at 3% unemployment and Bush H and Clinton raised millionaire taxes with 5% unemployment

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1634277726981967875

On what planet are Yadira Caraveo and Gabe Vasquez in toss-up races? Biden won both districts and Vasquez ousted an incumbent in a Ronchetti district.

Since after WA-03 and MI-07 (I’d say that starts at Tilt D), there aren’t many options to choose from for blue seats to put into the tossup category. They probably wanted to throw a couple on so as not to be accused of bias.

Most will just go for the PA seats.

I guess there’s an argument, but even with Mastriano and Oz bearing the ticket down, it was still in a midterm with 8% inflation and Biden at 40% approval. Cartwright and Wild had no business holding on, but did anyway. I think they start at Lean D.

In a lot of states 2024 won't be as good of an environment for Democrats as 2022. The level of persuasion achieved is just not possible in a presidential year, especially with Biden still being relatively unpopular. Biden would be winning the PV by 10 with that level of persuasion and that seems pretty unlikely. On the national level it will be a better year for Dems, but Shapiro and Whitmer powered blue waves in their states and in 2024 it will now be Biden's performance instructing the down ballot races.

Cartwright is in a Trump seat and Wild is in a Biden +1 seat. Those are about as tossup-y as it gets. Cartwright's been losing his crossover appeal, doing worse than 2020 despite a better or equal environment in PA is not a great sign for him. If PA is D +1 in the Presidential race again, he would likely lose. Wild is in a better position because her seat is bluer, but Shapiro and Fetterman both won her seat by a lot more than she did. She should beat Scheller in any case, the GOP should find someone else.

The same thing is true in Michigan. The environment in Michigan was extremely good for Democrats and it's not going to be replicated in 2022. This probably doesn't mean any seats flipped, because Kildee is strong and the Lansing seat is trending away from them, but James is in a better position than 2022. Biden won't be winning the seat by double digits like Whitmer did.

I think there’s a lot of assumptions here. Yes, Biden likely won’t do as well as Whitmer 2022 or Shapiro (obviously), but I could definitely see him doing better compared to 2020.

I stand by Cartwright and Wild starting at Lean D despite most people predicting them to lose in 2022 (myself included). Cartwright did better than Fetterman did too, which proves he wasn’t just carried by the top of the ticket.

That said, I think the order of vulnerable House Democrats starting out for me would be:

1. Perez (tossup)
2. Davis (tossup)
3. Horsford (Lean D)
4. MI-07 (Lean D)
5. Cartwright (Lean D)
6. Wild (Lean D)
7. Kaptur (Lean D)
8. Vasquez (Lean D)
9. Golden (Lean D)
10. Peltola (Lean D)

Beyond Perez, I think it’s stretching to put any of them starting out at tossup based on how well they all did in 2022 in face of significant headwinds already. It’s not like their ability to garner ticket splitters will suddenly vanish in the face of a presidential year.

If North Carolina and Ohio redraw, those seats will obviously top the list.

[Spectator]

I see Tom Barrett is running again in MI-07. I feel like my rating of that open seat as Lean D is justified. It was not even close last year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The tops for Biden is 303/350 EC votes like Obama gotten in 2012 and both Obama and Biden gotten identical PVI 50/45 80/75 M for Biden and 65/60M for Obama the Carolinas and OH are wave insurance with Brown l, Tester and Kunce have a strong chance to win S MO has Abortion on the ballot in 24 as always TX and FL are longshots and D's are divide on which blk candidate to support just like Wilson whom can make runoff in LA is the Dog

It's 300/350 EC votes not 415

It's very clear ALRED isn't running for Sen if he loses he won't have any standing in H anymore

That's why OH, AZ and MT are Tossup/Lean D and MO/WV is tossup and TX and FL are safe R, FL was so hotly contested in 2022 because of Deming's and Crist

OH and NC are opening up redistricting and DeWine isn't on the ballot that's why Brown has a better shot than Brown but don't expect any break out with polls until Debt Ceiling is resolved the polls are stagnant

Of course older WC voters are worried about Biden and the Debt Ceiling just like in 21 they hold the Prez accountable and there isn't any concrete bills like Triggers and Sequester cuts on the table like in 2012

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

lol

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1635660963742638080

[It’s so Joever]

lol

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1635660963742638080

Endorsed!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

lol

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1635660963742638080

Endorsed!

I hereby endorse him in the GOP primary.

[Atlas Force]

“2089”

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1639754196579946496

[Utah Neolib]

“2089”

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1639754196579946496

He is Nostradamus predicting a special election.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/JevinHodge/status/1641833699959521280
Jevin Hodge OUT for AZ-01 2024

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/JevinHodge/status/1641833699959521280
Jevin Hodge OUT for AZ-01 2024

Probably better for Dems to run someone new here, maybe Paul Penzone

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The RH majority is Gone that's why McCarthy reacted the way he did and Scalise because they have such a fragile majority in the 303 stated Kean, Fitzpatrick, Garcia, Green, Boebert, Lawler and Santos 22o 7 are gone no matter what happens and then there is the 230 wave insurance, like AZ 1, VA 2 and John James

S we are likely to keep AZ, OH and MT and MO, FL, TX and WV are wave insurance 230 H and 53 S like we were supposed to get in 22 with Barnes and Ryan

Hawley is such a flip flopper he supports tax cuts for the rich and then wants to ban Tix Tok but we know he is for the rich he acquitted Trump both times, he was with the J6 insurrection that's why he held up his fist and acquitted Trump Kunce will make that clear in a GE, Kunce is not gonna get blown out by 20 like Trudy Valentine it's gonna be more like Kander Blunt race

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1642179074087944193

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1642891905955426304

[Roll Roons]

The DCCC's target list seems to include two nonexistent congressmen:
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1642865707976392704

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

52/48 S MO/FL or MO/WV and 230 D H we win 17/33 that's why McCarthy was so outraged by Indictments they are gonna lose in 24, what we should of had after 22 52/48 and 222/213 DH

With a 52/46 PVI it can beore but this is the median

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1642879668780171265

Air Force veteran and former J.P. Morgan investment banker Kellen Curry is the first primary challenger in NY-03. He does seem to have a very impressive background but I could see the Nassau GOP being skittish about a political newcomer.

Though at least there's evidence that he actually attended the Air Force Academy: https://goairforcefalcons.com/sports/track-and-field/roster/kellen-curry/5019

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's gonna be so easy now to get Congress and security of Filibuster proof Trifecta

[Progressive Pessimist]

The DCCC's target list seems to include two nonexistent congressmen:
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1642865707976392704

Typos aside, this is a pretty good list. Though perhaps slightly too ambitious. I don't really see the Florida or Iowa seats being worth contesting in a presidential year.

And I'm kind of iffy on whether Steil and Van Ordern can be defeated with the current districts too. Work your magic, Judge Janet! Come on!

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1642891905955426304

Not sure someone who lost the district as an incumbent while their own gubernatorial nominee carried it is the person to win it back. Look how rematches went for retreads in cycles past, by and large.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1642891905955426304

Not sure someone who lost the district as an incumbent while their own gubernatorial nominee carried it is the person to win it back. Look how rematches went for retreads in cycles past, by and large.

Yeah, she's not a good candidate.  Surprisingly, DW-NOMINATE rated Herrell as the single most conservative representative in the 117th House (the next five are Ralph Norman, Andy Biggs, Andy Clyde, Chip Roy, and Marjorie Taylor Greene).

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/nicholaswu12/status/1643965941959610368?s=20

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1644014284836413440

[Landslide Lyndon]

LOL!

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1643949125598318592

[wbrocks67]

Riley is back in - and if the Hochulmander goes thru, he'll likely have an even better district I would assume?

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1645780308636340226